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AI is killing the cheap smartphone

https://davidoks.blog/p/ai-is-killing-the-cheap-smartphone
50•d0ks•2h ago

Comments

simonw•36m ago
The headline here under-serves the article in my opinion: this is a fascinating, deep explanation of how the memory market works and why increased demand for HBM (used by big GPU racks) hurts the availability of wafers for DDR and LPDDR (used by laptops and phones).
cm2012•20m ago
This author has outstanding articles regularly
sys_64738•26m ago
I can't say I've noticed specifically. I have two tracfone accounts and a Cricket account so used to use the Android phone with Cricket after two months - a free phone. But tracfone was bought by Verizon and they being them immediately changed the unlock period from two months to a year. So that to me kills my use case of free smartphones as I don't want to spend any money on phones.
mrandish•19m ago
The deep dive on memory market dynamics and the LLM bubble distortion is great. But another cause of declining smart phone sales is simply that the devices have matured and aren't improving at nearly the same rate.

From 2008 to around 2015, upgrading every two years could make a meaningful difference. From ~2015 to ~2020 upgrading every three years might be worth considering. I just upgraded my top of the line flagship after nearly six years. And I actually looked for compelling reasons to buy a new phone every year since 2023. There just weren't any.

Frankly, this latest flagship phone is pretty underwhelming. It's slightly faster at a few things. The battery lasts a little longer. The screen can get a little brighter. The camera is supposed to a little better but I haven't noticed any difference yet. But none of those minor improvements were significant issues with my 2020 flagship phone. Otherwise, the new phone is almost exactly the same size, same weight, same resolution, same look and same capabilities. I only upgraded because I was long out of contract and it was a only a couple hundred bucks for a $1400 MSRP phone with a new contract and a trade-in of the old phone.

trvz•8m ago
First, the iPhone 17 Pro is a huge improvement.

Second, the article doesn’t focus on phones we buy. There won’t be a shortage of those.

georgebcrawford•4m ago
Improvement in what way and over what previous phone? The parent mentioned a number of metrics.
keithnz•7m ago
Ever since I started working from home I barely use my phone, I just buy a mid range phone, and it seems just as capable as high range phone in most every practical way. The only real thing that seems a bit better is the camera, but I don't actually use it that often. The only thing I've really been a bit tempted by is Lidar on Apple, but more for dev fun that normal practical purposes.
aurareturn•8m ago

  The MacBook Pro on which I’m writing this piece needs memory that can keep up with a powerful processor running many programs at once: so it uses a standard called DDR, “double data rate,” which runs at a reasonably high voltage and offers high bandwidth. The processor on my iPhone is less powerful, so it needs less data at any given moment; but voltage matters enormously, since every milliwatt allocated to memory is drained from the battery. So smartphones use LPDDR, “low-power double data rate,” a variant of DDR engineered to operate at lower voltages.
The last MacBook Pro to use DDR was in 2019. All Apple Silicon Macs use LPDDR.
strictnein•3m ago
LPDDR stands for Low Power DDR
jimbokun•5m ago
This article expanded my understanding of the memory industry dramatically.

For anyone who doesn’t follow the market closely, this is about a good a primer as you could hope for.

blehn•2m ago
But aren't there plenty of used expensive phones from the last 5-7 years that are more or less equivalent replacements for new cheap phones? Apple alone sells 250 million phones a year.

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AI is killing the cheap smartphone

https://davidoks.blog/p/ai-is-killing-the-cheap-smartphone
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