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AI promised less work. I've never worked more

https://oioannou.com/blog/ai-promised-less-work/
83•oorestisime•2h ago

Comments

oxyg3n•1h ago
you never worked more before because considering AI-Based coding you're extremely more efficient in every task you accomplish. Everything is solved faster, and that makes more problems to come. It's like an unevitable escalation. Such putting your pedal on full gas without knowing how to leave it from there.
jackdaniel•36m ago
or the cognitive strain from trying to understand and rubberstamp a word salad is bigger than working through problems
zazibar•35m ago
Stay in school.
thatsabadlook•23m ago
No. Actually some things take longer and lead to worse outcomes. AI tools invent problems and find work for themselves while also failing at their stated tasks in opaque ways all the damn time. It's obnoxious and why so many repos are stupidly large for no good reason.
sailfast•42m ago
This tracks with my experience. The other bit that contributes here is that upstream inputs using AI also get faster - so you’re basically speeding up the entire machine but you’re still a human.

Unfortunately this means that you always feel the need to keep building or fall behind (picturing Lucy and Ethel at the chocolate factory) which means you’re pretty much always feeling burnt out and it feels harder to step away than ever before without feeling a certain way about it.

I hate it. It’s the best time ever to build. That excitement lasted about a year - but now it’s a treadmill I can’t escape and companies are not really paying more for the productivity (even factoring in the cost of my AI usage)

bunderbunder•19m ago
They aren’t paying more for productivity because they themselves aren’t earning more for productivity. The elephant in the room is that customers don’t have any more money to spend. Certainly not in this economy.

In manufacturing, an oversupply of finished product quickly leads to overfull warehouses, and the company knows to slow down production until product moves.

In software it’s less visible. Features that nobody is buying don’t physically pile up in the shipping department. Decades of accounting for all programmer time as productivity has left managers with limited ability to recognize time spent building unnecessary bloat as a loss. Maintenance burden isn’t fully recognized as a loss, either. We tend to assume it’s roughly equivalent to profit, the same as all other code the programmers churn out.

And what you are seeing now is that it was always a myth. Not everything you do at work is profitable or productive, and AI is causing that fraction to decrease. So of course they aren’t going to pay you more for it.

citrin_ru•41m ago
AI give employers immense leverage - by threading with AI layoffs they can exploit workers and in the current job market many have nowhere to go.
logicchains•26m ago
AI also gives employees much more leverage than before, as they no longer need a large team to compete with BigCos at knowledge work. It's never been cheaper to start a software business.
causal•21m ago
I have been pondering whether I am a fool to continue to go it as an employee in the age of AI.
esseph•20m ago
Might be just as bad, possibly worse, if you aren't BigCo.
flir•18m ago
It was never the coding that was hard, it was always the marketing.
soon_to_be_sb•18m ago
> It's never been cheaper to start a software business.

99.99% of software business is marketing..lol

gosub100•
lysace•33m ago
Did it really promise that? Who pitched that?
warmwaffles•29m ago
Let me see, Dario, Elon, Altman. Do I need to go on?
logicchains•29m ago
AI needs humans to fill in the gaps at what it's not good at: acquiring and managing large volumes of new information/context. This requires humans to learn faster than ever before, since their projects grow much more rapidly, and to spend far more time managing and switching context, which people generally find unpleasant.
englishspot•25m ago
the amount of work I get done increased exponentially, but so did the number of things I have to keep track of in my head. it's tempting to just YOLO everything to the AI, but "the AI did it" isn't really an excuse when production goes down.
gregoriol•21m ago
Same impression here: things "done" are going faster, bigger, more complex, and the head has to keep up
nkrisc•24m ago
The opening premise baffles me. What kind of illusion must one be under to believe that employers would ever pay you the same amount of money to do less work?

Realistically there were only ever two possible outcomes: you do more work for the same amount of money, or you’re one of the ones who were laid off and your work was transferred to the former.

The only way it will result in less work and the same or better quality of life is if you’re self-employed or are employed by a compassionate human. Sadly that does not apply to the majority of people.

causal•18m ago
At best all we can do is make knowledge work cheaper right now. But knowledge work was never the bottleneck behind energy prices, food production, transportation, cargo, etc.
trollbridge•17m ago
We have our own small boutique software type of business, so we aren't dealing with "employers", but all of us have never worked more, and for less (per hour) pay. Customers simply have higher expectations now, and we have to compete globally with basically an entire planet willing to vibe-code things, along with internal pressure at clients of "we can just do this ourselves".

So that means shipping higher quality, faster, with more features, and for a lower end price.

conception•15m ago
You are missing a critical third - people organize and via unions or the polls push back and require less work. There is no reason we aren’t working seven days a week beyond people fighting not to.
simias•11m ago
Pingk•23m ago
Technological innovations have never meant less work for the worker. It's the bosses/company that benefit from being able to squeeze you that little bit more.

Want to do less work? Join a union and campaign for a 4-day work week or something. If the productivity benefit from AI is real, there's no reason you shouldn't be paid the same for less time because your output is the same/better.

bemtevi•18m ago
> If the productivity benefit from AI is real, there's no reason you shouldn't be paid the same for less time because your output is the same/better.

That reasoning makes sense in a world where people are paid in proportion to the value they create. But it doesn't make sense in a world where supply and demand determine the price paid for something. Because if you can do the same work in less time in means you've actually increased the supply of producing things and thus decreased its worth.

arend321•22m ago
I may not work less, but certainly different and better. Just this morning I went for a long walk on the beach, barefoot in the water. Using nothing but voice interaction, I handled a couple of outstanding CRM tasks, sorted out some accounting issues and upgraded my search infrastructure (SearXNG) and most of all enjoyed my walk outside. I would not be able to do all this without AI and would be stuck behind my desk, daydreaming about going for that walk instead.
mlsu•16m ago
With the power of AI, soon all of us can be doing outstanding CRM tasks instead of wasting time enjoying nature. Imagine the time savings we could recover by removing all quiet contemplative moments!
great_wubwub•14m ago
> would be stuck behind my desk,

Or you would be unemployed and nervous about how you were going to pay your bills, replaced by someone willing to do the same work for lower cost while chained to said desk.

x187463•13m ago
For those of us stuck in an office building, at a desk, AI models have enabled handling multiple tasks as a same time as fast as we can think. I'm absolutely doing multiple times the work I was doing before and the time between tasks is basically zero. Same pay, though, and drastically increased productivity and sense of effort.
keiferski•12m ago
But wouldn't it be nicer to have that walk without being plugged into your phone, and have less actual work to do when you sit down at the computer?
preuceian•21m ago
The promise was that fewer workers could do the same amount of work, or even more
bemtevi•19m ago
For decades tech companies have promised that devices save time....but to do what? The pitch was that they would save time for us to do more 'creative stuff'...but I think that pitch and idea is fundamentally flawed. From doing creative stuff for a couple decades, I can make a few observations:

(1) More tech doesn't save time if it's developed in the direction/dimension of more information flow. Because it seems that the best environment for creativity is a somewhat restricted environment of information. And if one needs to engage with information to take advantage of this new tech, it actually impedes creativity.

(2) A lot of the grunt work that we seem to be automating also encourages creativity. From what I've observed from many artists and programmers (I hang out with both), it seems that creativity strikes best when it's not forced, and the "downtime" doing grunt work actually accelerates it.

So I think that AI breaks these two principles (minimal information and the removal of the crucial grunt work), and actually makes us work more for less.

The only gains seem to be those short-term kinds (a program can be made faster, rewards can be reaped by senior people who have thought about stuff for a while), rather than encouraging a healthy environment of creativity....

comrade1234•19m ago
I use ai as I program every day and I find it useful. I also use it for tech support for myself and my home server. The other day I used it to make some changes in my server and I felt like I accomplished tons. But when I thought about it in the evening I realized I could have got it done with less time if I had just read some documents - the ai advice was often out-of-date and I notice that while programming too - for example, I use the spring-ai framework which has changed massively between versions and the ai always gives old advice....

So on average I would say I'm getting about as much work done now as before ai.

mxmpawn•18m ago
AI is increasing productivity. Companies are positioned to leverage this, employees are not, as they'll still work the same hours, maybe now producing more.

The way to better leverage this is to build your own company, I know this is not as simple as saying it but the gap is widening and it doesn't look good for employees.

trollbridge•8m ago
As someone with their own company, AI doesn't magically make things better. If anything, it makes it worse since you have far more competition from other people who are not good at programming but are good at sales/marketing.
everdrive•18m ago
No technology helps you work less. It changes the amount of work one person can output. Once a person can do more, an employer will require more.
llm_nerd•15m ago
This is a bit of a strawman, as almost all AI-related opinion pieces are on here lately.

"The pitch was that AI would give us our time back. Write less boilerplate, delegate the boring parts, go home earlier."

Who pitched this? Where was this argued?

And for what it's worth, our entire industry was pitched as a way for businesses to do more with less. Our raison d'être is that we would automate and enhance parts of business so you no longer need the rooms of analysts, the constant inventory manpower churn, rooms of typists, mailrooms, and on and on and on.

It's a bit rich for us to clutch pearls now. We exist as an industry to put other people out of work, and many of us have made a lot of money doing just that. There is zero surprise that businesses would like to put us out of work if they could.

And even among our industry, many of us spent much of our time trying to reduce the need for other programmers. Doesn't the website builder maker put web developers out of business? Framework vendors are replacing lots of internal code that could keep big teams employed for decades! Microsoft and other big firms are constantly trying to figure out what the many employers of software dev teams are doing...so they can replace them. I mean, we all do that, trying to automate and simplify the need for other teams to exist.

The "pitch" of AI is that it's a new tool that your competitors are going to be using, so you had better get onboard now too, in a classic adapt or die choice. And...this is largely true! You can't argue it away. You can mythologize a never existed history where software used to be perfect in the pre-AI era. You can't moralize about slop or pretend it's all a mirage. It's all just foolish rhetoric that groups all cluck and upvote to make each other feel good, while the rest of the world moves on.

keiferski•13m ago
I think AI has also devalued a lot of work that previously might have been "mundane" but still felt like an accomplishment once you got it done. But now you can do that work to an ±80% quality level of the old, manual way, but in 1% of the time.

So the result is noticeably worse, but you basically must do it, because the efficiency gains are inescapable. This makes the work seem even more pointless, adding to the feeling that you're working more and accomplishing less.

carlgreene•5m ago
I recently made a change because I felt the same way. I think it was primarily my phone. I had my full agent setup accessible via my phone and was able to be as productive as being on my machine wherever I was. This made it so any thought, or tickle of the mind resulted in me whipping out my phone, firing off a prompt, and iterating until it got it right.

I switched to a dumb flip phone as my primary device and now my work mostly only gets done on my computer during work hours. I obviously still have my iPhone and I sometimes take it on walks during the day if I want to have a productive walk, but it mostly stays plugged in in my drawer.

I always thought I wanted to be constantly connected to my dev environment and be able to work from anywhere, but it turns out that adds way too much noise to my life and is a net negative. I was constantly thinking about work and then able to act on those thoughts so the cycle just continued until I fell asleep.

18m ago
Cheaper now that they are running AI services at a loss.
debazel•15m ago
The side effect of this is also that the value of software itself has never been lower, so starting a new software business isn't very attractive in today's market.
trollbridge•9m ago
The skillset needed to be a productive employee who is, say, a programmer is not the same at all as the skillset to run an entire business.

For example, skills with sales are far more important than actual software engineering.

bdcravens•21m ago
Scarier than that is the idea of replacing you with someone far cheaper who can drive the AI.
tonyedgecombe•12m ago
[delayed]
I'm very pro-union but I feel like at this point attempting to organize will just speed up the process of replacing as many people as possible with machines, not slow it down. It's too little, too late.

I don't understand what kind of society we're building right now. Anthropic and other AI labs at $20T valuations, the 1% monopolizing all the wealth and the rest of us out of a job and fighting for the scraps?

There seems to be some sort of magical thinking within the AI crowd at the moment, that it'll all work itself out in the end.

- Build the God Machine

- ??????

- POST-SCARCITY UTOPIA!

redwood•7m ago
No one is giving them a 20T valuation. That's an order of magnitude larger than the market is currently targeting
Ar-Curunir•7m ago
[delayed]
donbox•3m ago
But but but... organizing.. be it in form of democractic/market processes (non-violent or otherwise) can act as a speed breaker.
Zak•14m ago
A rational employer is interested in how much value they can get, not how hard you work. In most cases, in the short term, an increase in efficiency means they can get more value from you working the same amount of the same pay.
nkrisc•9m ago
Good thing all employers are rational.
pessimizer•4m ago
> an increase in efficiency

An increase in efficiency in and of itself, maybe, but there is no such thing. The increase in efficiency has largely come from deskilling the job. Deskilling the job makes the employees time less valuable, because they can be substituted for another more easily.

But another factor is that just because you can do work faster doesn't mean there's more work to do, so if you were hitting all your deadlines before with two employees, now you can fire one. Which one that will be is the result of a reverse wage auction.

boringg•14m ago
If you don't recall the early innings of AI - that was a big promise from a vocal group of people.
nkrisc•8m ago
I do recall, I’m more surprised anyone would believe it.
rkozik1989•13m ago
Yeah, everybody wants freedom and flexibility from self-employment, but that's generally speaking not a realistic attainable goal. The most defensible small businesses are ones that are sweaty i.e. require a lot hard work and hours others just wont justify doing, and that's an extremely important facet because without employees its much easier for a business to catastrophically collapse. Pretty much by definition anything that requires low effort is easy to clone and thus become saturated.
phyzix5761•11m ago
What does compassion have to do with it? If the industry requires more output or your business fails what options do you have?

Also, as someone who has been self employed I can tell you that you're working 2x-3x as much as someone who is employed and you have to pay more in taxes.

bananaflag•7m ago
> The opening premise baffles me. What kind of illusion must one be under to believe that employers would ever pay you the same amount of money to do less work?

I guess the idea that AI will do all the work and either take care of us or kill us all. Which will probably happen, but the transition takes years and in the meantime we work much harder. People were expecting a fast takeoff.

jvanderbot•6m ago
Oh but AI has wiped out some of the most tedious work I have to do. I can now easily work every waking minute, and some sleeping minutes, at a level approximately comparable to my prior 8h workload from 10 years ago.

The amount of mental energy saved, and downright stimulation gained from seeing rapid feedback in a tight loop is making my workday much easier. I have enough left to continue it longer.

arend321•3m ago
For sure, and a good part can already be automated. But certain things still require human intervention and always will. Keep in mind these work related walks do not replace other outdoor activities.

AI promised less work. I've never worked more

https://oioannou.com/blog/ai-promised-less-work/
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