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Show HN: Claumon – forecasting Claude Code usage limits with a Gamma process

https://github.com/fabioconcina/claumon
4•fabioconcina•3h ago
Anthropic's usage analytics dashboard is only available to Team and Enterprise org admins. On a Pro or Max plan all you get is /usage and the claude.ai usage page, which show where you stand right now but not where you're heading. I looked at various open-source projects but none quite matched what I had in mind: an all-round control panel for Claude Code that's also a single binary, with no dependencies and no install steps.

The other thing I cared about was forecasting the usage limits. Existing tools do burn-rate projections (ccusage) or percentile heuristics (Claude-Code-Usage-Monitor), which felt too simplistic for what I wanted - I was after a calibrated statistical model with proper credible intervals.

I built claumon over the last few months in Go. It runs on Linux, macOS and Windows, with a Homebrew install. It has the usual consumption gauges, cost breakdowns and conversation history, plus two tabs for memory management: after a while I had memories scattered across several projects and wanted to see them in one place and prune the stale ones.

In the last few weeks I focused on the forecast model. I started from an empirical-Bayes linear regression with Brownian noise, but ended up with a Gamma process for the path noise: token usage can't decrease over time, so Brownian motion, however mathematically convenient, was the wrong choice. The intervals are calibrated against your own recorded history, and there's tooling that scores the forecasts out-of-sample, so the coverage is checked rather than assumed.

I wrote a formal, versioned spec for the model, and the implementation follows it: https://github.com/fabioconcina/claumon/blob/main/internal/f...

Everything runs locally - nothing leaves your machine. It's open source, MIT. I'd welcome feedback on the model especially.

Show HN: Workplane – collaborative files for agents (and humans)

https://workplane.co
5•matanrak•1h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Extend UI – open-source UI kit for modern document apps

https://www.extend.ai/ui
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Show HN: HelixDB – A graph database built on object storage

https://github.com/HelixDB/helix-db/tree/main
139•GeorgeCurtis•22h ago•40 comments

Show HN: I applied Lyapunov stability theory to detect when LLM agents spiral

https://github.com/vishal-dehurdle/state-harness
2•visha1v•3h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Claumon – forecasting Claude Code usage limits with a Gamma process

https://github.com/fabioconcina/claumon
4•fabioconcina•3h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Editxr – open-source WYSIWYG Markdown editor for the terminal

https://github.com/pixdeo/editxr
4•mromanuk•59m ago•2 comments

Show HN: Tail Panic – a multiplayer game designed for AI agents

https://tailpanic.com
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Show HN: SpadeBox – Sandboxed tools and JavaScript runtime for AI agents

https://github.com/CharlyCst/spadebox
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Show HN: Atlasphere – Live Infrastructure Diagrams

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Show HN: yawac – a macOS client for WhatsApp, Swift, no Electron, no BS

https://github.com/vadika/yawac/
3•vadikas•5h ago•1 comments

Show HN: Gravity – Interactive solar-system simulator, from Newton to Einstein

https://qunabu.github.io/Gravity/
205•qunabu•2d ago•49 comments

Show HN: Artie – Real-time data replication to your warehouse, now self-serve

https://www.artie.com
23•tang8330•1d ago•5 comments

Show HN: GentleOS – A pair of hobby OSes for vintage 32-bit and 16-bit PCs

https://github.com/luke8086/gentleos32
124•luke8086•3d ago•104 comments

Show HN: macOS menu bar gauges for your Claude Code quota

https://github.com/grzegorz-raczek-unit8/claude-quota
62•grzracz•1d ago•39 comments

Show HN: Performative-UI – A react component library of design tropes

https://vorpus.github.io/performativeUI/
1169•lizhang•3d ago•209 comments

Show HN: A command-line story machine inspired by Roald Dahl's 1953 short story

https://github.com/skorotkiewicz/grammatizator
3•modinfo•8h ago•1 comments

Show HN: Ustps (UDP Speedy Transmission Protocol Secure) and USSH

https://github.com/x1colegal/USTP-Secure
12•x1colegal•2d ago•5 comments

Show HN: Resonate – Low-latency, high-resolution spectral analysis

https://alexandrefrancois.org/Resonate/
45•arjf•4d ago•20 comments

Show HN: I built a Red Flag Warning zone-check tool for the East Bay in 48h

https://redflag-check.info
5•vedant28t•9h ago•0 comments

Show HN: NBSDgames – 21 new, improved, original text games for Unix, DOS, Plan9

https://github.com/abakh/nbsdgames
12•abakh•23h ago•1 comments

Show HN: Nucleus – A security-hardened, Nix-native container runtime

https://github.com/sig-id/nucleus
37•0kenx•1d ago•13 comments

Show HN: Gitdot – A better GitHub. Open-source, written in Rust

https://gitdot.io/
326•baepaul•2d ago•304 comments

Show HN: Catalyst Maze: biotech trading game

https://rnpv.baybridgebio.com/maze/
4•aaavl2821•14h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Learn from 30 historical figures, open source, nonprofit, self-hosted

https://github.com/chipmates/agoracosmica
43•micstradev•2d ago•23 comments

Show HN: Pacman AI – Generated with Claude Fable 5

https://pacmanai.com/
5•javierluraschi•14h ago•4 comments

Show HN: Jailbreak this model to get 3B tokens

https://opir.ai/challenge
3•copypirate•14h ago•0 comments

Show HN: I built a microlearning app to learn personal finance

https://finance.usescroll.app
6•maclinz•20h ago•7 comments

Show HN: Llmbuffer – Python library for cache-optimized LLM conversation history

https://github.com/scottpurdy/llmbuffer
5•scottmp10•15h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Magenta Real-Time Music Generation Locally on iPhone, Without the GPU

https://github.com/mattmireles/magenta-realtime-2-iphone
9•MediaSquirrel•16h ago•0 comments

Show HN: Social network where inviting someone makes you accountable for them

https://chirpper.com
10•Chirpper•23h ago•17 comments