There are loads of use cases like this that will most definitely be solved by local LLM.

Buying hardware that covers 90% of my use pattern isn't going to pay itself back for 5 or 10 years. With the added benefit that i can change my setup every month.

I strongly believe we're in a bubble, but even just buying stocks with the money seems a better investment in my situation.

the loss is private, so that's OK.

A similar thing happened to the internet bandwidth capacity when the dot-com bust happened - overinvestment in fibre everywhere (came to be called dark fibre iirc), which became superbly useful once the recovery started, despite those building these capacity not making much money. They ate the losses, so that the benefit can flow out.

The only time this is not OK is when the overinvestment comes from gov't sources, and is ultimately a taxpayer funded grift.

If the LLM boom ends then bitcoin miners can eat up all the slack grid power! You can put those ASICs anywhere

The goalpost is always moving.

Definitions change to fit the narrative each one is trying to push at the time.

> a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work

It would be a good sign if paid demand exceeds supply but I don't know if we can measure that.

I'm not sure this is a good take. There's a reason why Microsoft employs 200,000+ people, and you can be sure most of them they're not cranking out code 9-to-5.

Companies are living organisms more than they are pieces of software. In fact, the source code for Windows has been leaked a number of times over the years, and it resulted in approximately $0 revenue lost.

For sure, there are some fantastically successful, vertically integrated companies. But mostly it’s less risky to sell the shovels rather than mine the gold.

But an AI winter is unlikely to come either, as it currently adds a lot of value in many places. But the profits coming out of it are unlikely to line up with current investments being poured in.