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Atlas: Manage your database schema as code

https://github.com/ariga/atlas
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1•samuel_0xK•1h ago•0 comments
Open in hackernews

Ask HN: Are failure stats available for consumer LED bulbs?

4•bariumbitmap•3mo ago
I'm looking for information on statistical failure rates for current models of consumer LED bulbs, a bit like Backblaze hard drive stats (e.g. https://www.backblaze.com/blog/backblaze-drive-stats-for-2024/) but for commercially available LED lamps instead. (Failure here should include behaviors like flickering, not just fully burning out.) I live in the United States, so I'm looking for a standard A19 LED light bulb with the usual E26 Edison screwbase and typical lighting metrics (2700K soft white, ~800-880 lumens). The source should be a reputable third-party, as I doubt failure rates from the manufacturers themselves are trustworthy. I plan to use this data to inform my future purchasing decisions for LED light bulbs in my apartment.

To be clear, I'm not looking for LED bulb recommendations based on CRI etc., there are plenty of those on Hacker News and elsewhere. I'd prefer data that is publicly available (like the Backblaze stats) but I'm fine with something behind a paywall like Consumer Reports if the data is accurate and up-to-date. Again, I'm looking for failure statistics based on a large number of bulbs in actual use (i.e. hundreds or thousands), not anecdotes or recommendations based on a small sample size.

Here's some background and explanation:

I'm not a professional electrician or lighting specialist, just a regular person who lives in an apartment, and I'm tired of replacing LED bulbs that start flickering after roughly a year or service or even just a few months. Sure, many of the LED bulbs have lasted since I moved in six years ago, but many have not. I'm aware of the general reason why LED bulbs fail: the manufacturers want to minimize component count so they use fewer LEDs and drive them at higher power, causing them to run hotter and burn out faster, especially if the passive cooling from the heatsink is inadequate. (There are other reasons, too, like poor quality control on capacitors or other components besides the LEDs, bad soldering, etc.) I also know that enclosed fixtures and dimmers are a risk factor, but those are not a factor in the replacements I've done in my apartment. I also know that power fluctuations or poor sockets can be an issue, but many of the bulbs here are still fine after more than six years, and the ones that have burnt out are not isolated to a particular socket, suggesting this is an issue with the bulbs, not the power quality or sockets. I'd also like to emphasize this is not restricted to a brand: I've seen premature failures from Cree, Maxxima, GE, Intertek, Maxlite, and Phillips brand bulbs. Nor is it a particular brightness or form factor, I've had failures from lumens ranging from 480, 800, 830, and 880 lumen bulbs. I've seen failures from bulbs using LEDs mounted on a flat PCB and also from filament-style LEDs, so bulb design is not necessarily reflective of failure rate.

I have a subscription to Consumer Reports and normally I would use their light bulb buying guide, but it hasn't been updated since 2017 and their website says "Consumer Reports is not currently testing Lightbulbs". A lot of their recommendations are no longer manufactured and some of them are wildly overpriced on Amazon, probably because they're selling old stock and know people are buying based on the Consumer Reports guide. The whole LED bulb situation right now seems like an Akerlof-style market for lemons, where buyers have no way to know bulb failure rates and so manufacturers have no incentive to improve them. I'd like to change that if possible for my own purchasing decisions, but until I have actual data I don't see a way to do that.

Comments

bigyabai•3mo ago
Uh oh, you're hot on the heels of the 21st century Phoebus cartel.
bariumbitmap•3mo ago
I know you're joking, but I'd like to point out that manufacturers don't need to collude to make crummy lamps. It's in every manufacturer's interest to reduce costs, and since consumers can't tell which lamps will last longer they can't reward manufacturers that do better on this metric.
taylodl•3mo ago
In my real-world experience, CFLs last forever. Seriously, I have lights I moved from my old house over 16 years ago that are still running...and I had them for several years at my previous house.
bariumbitmap•3mo ago
> In my real-world experience, CFLs last forever.

I'm happy for you, but in my real-world experience they don't. I'm old enough to remember household lighting before LEDs and CFLs had the same problem where some of them start flickering or burning out. Some of the failure modes are particularly annoying for CFLs because in additional to flickering the color could change dramatically.

CFLs also have well-known problems that LEDs do not: environmental issues and disposal costs due to containing a small amount of mercury, inability to emit at low color temperatures, poor CRI, etc. I also personally dislike the latency they have when turning on, but that's more of a me thing.

taylodl•3mo ago
Yeah, the mercury is a definite downside. I haven't bought any CFLs since I bought these - and that's been roughly 20 years ago! And they are in what are considered the worst areas, too! Meanwhile, several LEDs have come and gone while the CFLs keep trucking along!
timonoko•3mo ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25808959
bariumbitmap•3mo ago
Yes, I'm aware of Dubai lamps; they run the LEDs at lower power for greater longevity. However there are a number of issues with them for my use-case:

1. They run at 230 VAC and 50 Hz, i.e. Dubai power standards instead of US power standards.

2. The brightest bulb is the 3 W model, which emits 600 lumen. I'm looking for something in the 800-880 lumen range.

3. They are famously not available for purchase in the US or other countries other than Dubai.

https://hackaday.com/2021/01/17/leds-from-dubai-the-royal-li...

timonoko•3mo ago
Eh what?. You can make a Dubai Lamp just adding suitable capacitor to the line.

  Hey Grok. What is suitable capacitor to add to 3W 240V 50Hz Led Lamp to make it long-lasting Dubai Lamp?

 <long explanation with formulas and other shit removed>
 
  180-220 nF (400V)
bariumbitmap•3mo ago
> You can make a Dubai Lamp just adding suitable capacitor to the line.

Make a low-power Dubai-style lamp from any LED lamp by adding a single capacitor? Surely you must be jesting. Where in the circuit do you propose to add this capacitor to reduce power? How would this differ for a capacitive dropper circuit versus a switching regulator? How practical is this given that most LED bulbs cannot be disassembled non-destructively?

Perhaps you are thinking of replacing the current-limiting capacitor in a capacitive dropper lamp with a smaller value:

> This is the bit we want to change. At the moment it's a 330 nano Farad capacitor rated at 400V to allow for the peak voltage of our UK 230V supply. I'm going to change it for a 100nF capacitor that will effectively pass less than a third of the current.

https://www.bigclive.com/ledlmp.htm

I'd like to point out that this only works in lamps with this design and where the components are accessible for desoldering. You have to do this to a new bulb before it stresses the components, but doing so will void the manufacturer's warranty. Also:

> This project involves modifying a mains powered product that was probably built badly in the first place. As such it carries the risk of shock, fire and explosive underpant soiling even when done properly.

This kind of design, with an accessible capacitor in a regular PCB, was relatively common in cheap LED lamps 5-10 years ago but things have changed a lot since then. Most modern lamps require destructive disassembly to access these components and have aluminum PCBs that act as heatsinks, making desoldering impractical. However you can sometimes do things like removing one of the current sensing resistors with diagonal cutters to reduce the power:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HTa2jVi_rc

But the biggest problem with this kind of component-level hack to make a Dubai-style low-power lamp is you now have a light that is significantly dimmer than you started with! I alluded to this when I said the Dubai lamp series tops out at 3 W / 600 lumens when I want a lamp in the 800-880 lumen range. And the 600 lumen Dubai lamp already uses 12 LED filaments, so you'd need something like 16 filaments in a single bulb to approach that 800 lumen range. Where do you propose to find such a lamp?