frontpage.
newsnewestaskshowjobs

Made with ♥ by @iamnishanth

Open Source @Github

fp.

Open in hackernews

Cost per outcome: measuring the real economics of AI workflows

1•deborahjacob•1h ago
Hi HN, I’m the technical founder of botanu (https://www.botanu.ai ).

I started building this after repeatedly running into the same problem on AI teams: we could see total LLM spend, but we couldn’t answer a simple question:

“What did one successful outcome actually cost?”

In real systems, a single business event often requires multiple attempts before it succeeds — retries, fallbacks, tool calls, escalations, async workers, etc. Most tooling measures individual model calls or sometimes a single workflow run, which hides the real cost.

The unit that matters to the business is the outcome, not the individual call.

The approach I’m exploring in botanu:

An event_id represents the business intent (e.g., resolve support ticket, generate report)

Each attempt is a run with its own run_id

All runs share the same event_id

A final outcome is emitted for the event (success / failure / partial)

Cost per outcome = sum of all runs for that event, including failed attempts

Run context propagates across services using W3C Baggage (OpenTelemetry) so the event can be traced across distributed systems.

The idea is to make AI economics measurable at the outcome level, not just tokens or model calls.

On the engineering side, teams can use this to:

experiment with models and workflows in a dev playground

compare architectures and retries

optimize the cost of producing a successful outcome

On the business side, it helps teams understand:

unit economics of AI features

cost per customer action

how to support outcome-based pricing models.

I’m curious how others here are thinking about AI unit economics and measuring outcomes in production systems.

Happy to answer technical questions or get critical feedback.

Deborah deborah [at] botanu dot ai

Comments

alexbuiko•1h ago
Focusing on 'Cost per Outcome' rather than 'Cost per Token' is a vital shift for AI reliability. At SDAG [https://github.com/alexbuiko-sketch/SDAG-Standard], we’ve been looking at the same problem from the opposite end of the stack: the hardware-inference interface.

In a distributed system using OpenTelemetry, a 'successful outcome' often hides a lot of silent technical debt. If an event requires 4 retries, it’s not just a billing issue—it’s a signal of high routing entropy. We’ve found that failed attempts or long CoT (Chain of Thought) loops often correlate with specific hardware stress patterns and memory controller 'redlining.'

Integrating SDAG signals into something like your event_id tracking could be powerful. It would allow teams to see not just how much a success cost, but whether the 'path to success' was physically efficient or if it was stressing the cluster due to poor routing logic. Have you considered adding hardware-level telemetry (like jitter or entropy metrics) to your outcome tracking to predict which 'runs' are likely to fail before they even finish?"

deborahjacob•23m ago
That's a great idea. I am doing only application-level tracking but I agree hardware-level telemetry would be super helpful. Would love to learn more about how you think about it. Here's my email : deborah [at] botanu dot ai

Vitalina: Export Your Apple Health Data as CSV/JSON

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/health-data-exporter-vitalina/id6759179139
1•MegaMaddin•14s ago•1 comments

Digital Democracy

https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/
1•jruohonen•45s ago•0 comments

Kishida Prize crowns wordsmiths in the theater world

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/culture/2026/02/26/stage/kishida-prize-theater-japan/
1•PaulHoule•3m ago•0 comments

Zoox starts mapping Dallas and Phoenix for its robotaxis

https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/09/zoox-starts-mapping-dallas-and-phoenix-for-its-robotaxis/
1•gmays•4m ago•0 comments

Surgical Repair of Collapsed Attention Heads in ALiBi Transformers

https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09616
1•palmerschallon•5m ago•1 comments

Why Escalation Favors Iran

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-escalation-favors-iran
2•decimalenough•5m ago•1 comments

Thanks, ChatGPT

https://www.robpanico.com/articles/display/?entry_short=thanks-chatgpt
1•retrocog•6m ago•1 comments

Wired headphone sales are exploding. What's with the Bluetooth backlash?

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20260310-wired-headphones-are-better-than-bluetooth
9•billybuckwheat•8m ago•1 comments

Feature Unrequest

https://kudmitry.com/articles/feature-unrequest/
2•skwee357•10m ago•0 comments

OrthoScience – Hybrid search engine for 500K+ orthopedic translational research

https://orthoarchives.com/en/orthoscience/search
1•DrMeric•10m ago•1 comments

Don't post generated/AI-edited comments. HN is for conversation between humans.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
22•usefulposter•16m ago•5 comments

An Update from First Board Chair Laurie Leshin

https://www.firstinspires.org/about/press-room/an-update-from-first-board-chair-laurie-leshin
1•ndrake•16m ago•0 comments

Show HN: R2 Desk Pro – a vault-locked desktop client for CF R2 (Tauri/Rust)

https://r2desk.greeff.dev
1•pio_greeff•16m ago•0 comments

A record share of U.S. workers now have access to paid leave

https://19thnews.org/2026/03/paid-leave-policies-united-states/
2•mooreds•16m ago•0 comments

I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dow-anthropic
1•emschwartz•16m ago•0 comments

Over puppy yoga? Try it with snakes

https://text.npr.org/nx-s1-5743865
1•mooreds•17m ago•0 comments

Do You Need to Wash New Clothes Before Wearing Them?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/well/wash-new-clothes-before-wearing.html
1•mooreds•17m ago•0 comments

Buying a Laptop Online Is a Broken Experience (2018)

https://blog.raed.dev/posts/buying_laptop_online_broken_experience/
1•Raed667•18m ago•0 comments

We Built a Linux Kernel Mailing List Front End

https://nexus-kb.com/blog/nexus-kb-announcement/
2•tansanrao•20m ago•0 comments

Ask HN: Developers still enjoying development after AI?

2•aavci•21m ago•2 comments

The Internet Has 100M Shops and No Front Door

https://askucp.com/blog
1•possiblelion•21m ago•0 comments

OmniCode: A Benchmark for Evaluating Software Development Agents

https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02262
1•foma-roje•23m ago•0 comments

From IDEs to AI Agents with Steve Yegge [video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFsAOu2bgFk
1•claudiug•23m ago•1 comments

Show HN: Daub – A rendering spec for AI-generated UIs (two files, no build step)

https://daub.dev
1•kulesh•25m ago•0 comments

FBI warns Iran wanted to attack California with drones

https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/iran-drones-west-coast-attack-22071032.php
3•babelfish•26m ago•0 comments

The Passion of Will Self

https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2026/03/the-passion-of-will-self
2•apollinaire•28m ago•0 comments

WikiTCG – Collect the world's knowledge, one card at a time

https://wikitcg.net/
1•hi_im_vijay•29m ago•0 comments

The Gulf built oil pipelines to avoid Hormuz. It's now doing the same for data

https://restofworld.org/2026/gulf-overland-data-cables-europe-war/
2•donohoe•29m ago•0 comments

Slicing an 80B MoE LLM into 40B domain specialists

https://github.com/JThomas-CoE/College-of-Experts-AI/tree/main/CoE-Demo-v1.5
2•JThomas-CoE•29m ago•1 comments

Hisense TVs force owners to watch intrusive ads

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/hisense-tvs-force-owners-to-watch-intrusive-a...
26•CharlesW•32m ago•7 comments