"As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding." -Sloman and Fernbach

Also, the Dunning-Kruger effect still applies to smart people. You don't stop when you are estimating your ability correctly; as you learn more, you gain more awareness of your ignorance and continue being conservative with your self-estimates.

> All of these travel further than: "There are several plausible mechanisms here, and the result depends on which bottleneck dominates."

I'd assume the reason that quote doesn't travel is because people are tired of quotes written by AI. I'd rather see a real example here, or at the very least a traditionally-written one.

Dude is using AI for a slop-post that complains that AI pundits are not persuasive enough and should take acting classes.

Really, the one thing missing in 2026 is more and better AI propaganda!

>The people who know the most often sound the least certain

As was beautifully demonstrated in this article.

It's revealing that the author thinks that a podcast is the ideal venue to reason through complex technical issues.