But later he states that "the essay is something you write to figure something out". So why contemplating about the audience and how important it is to them in the first place?
Maybe I was nudged because I enjoy reading and listening knowledgeable people about (classic) cars, but i wonder if pg would make the same statement if the subject of the essay would be a computer science technicality or obscurity.
I came up with difficulty, opportunity and motivation.
If an idea is difficult or non-obvious, if it requires insight or following the steps of a particular argument, many people of any age may remain ignorant of it. You could kind of force this into the obtuse bucket, but in my experience people are less obtuse, than slow. Obtuse, as a label, is mostly a way of lazily flipping the bozo bit and cutting your losses.
And if you don't encounter an idea or concept or piece of knowledge, you won't know it. If it's useful, you may just have accepted a worldview without that use. This kind of ignorance isn't just inexperience. It can be learned helplessness too.
Motivation is an axis that isn't fully orthogonal to the others. Motivation can overcome difficulty, and encourage searching and testing behavior which gets you to opportunity.
I'm not sure, having read the essay, that PG's perspective is more correct. I think obtuseness is too reductive, and inexperience strikes me as more plausible as a reason an essay might be impactful, optimizing for one reason for ignorance, than a reason for not knowing the topic of any given essay if it's not general common sense.
On impact: I think something is likely to be more impactful the more ignorant you are about the topic were beforehand (the distance between what you knew before and after reading), multiplied by how motivated you are (which is related but distinct from importance: you can be motivated by stamp collecting or trainspotting). Your motivation is generally split among competing motivations the older you get; you can't afford focused monomania like a teenager.
A big dose of information isn't likely to shift your momentum (getting close to physical impact) when it's just a glancing blow, rather than hitting it head on.
Anyway, it sure is impactful to tell the kids stuff. I think we already knew this though.
In the Kahneman hypothesis, humans are naturally parsimonious with our mental energy, preferring to use System 1. If we are writing a good essay, we are investing real System 2 effort. When we read someone else's writing, we get a free ride.
Difficulty and (lack of) motivation in your schema drives people towards System 1.
I agree that "obtuseness" is too reductive. There are copious examples of people who have had brilliant insights through the application of their System 2, who go on to embarrass themselves with shoddy System 1 thinking. Anyone can be obtuse - or not - it's just not a clear category.
I've been looking at getting a Miata, and have been eyeing a nice 2016ish Miata because their prices seem so much lower.
Then I read a post from someone saying their transmissions are "like glass" and how it's better off to pay a few more $k for a 2017+ car, b/c that's how much a new transmission would cost anyway.
If everyone were to follow Paul's advice, these kinds of posts would never have been written because you're supposed to "only write what people want"
This 2016 Miata thing is a widely known thing in Miata circles — I just didn't know about it.
Google used to be a really powerful and functional search tool! Then, the antagonistic process of SEO and the perverted incentives of the company building the search index also taking advertising dollars ensured it was always going to get shitty, and serve their needs above yours.
LLMs are the same. They WILL be made less effective for whatever you want. Because they are beholden to the people with the money. Those people don't want you to have an effective search tool.
LLMs are running off other people's good will
I actually really like this end of the essay spectrum.
Reading (and writing!) this kind of essay can tie together mental loose threads, finishing a nearly-complete bit of thinking, finally coalescing a bunch of static into a coherent signal. The essay can give the concept a name (e.g. maker's schedule, manager's schedule) or at minimum allow referring to the entire conceptual result with a single URL.
They can get people talking about a thought that they've all had but never shared. They can provide a new starting line for thinking, allowing it to advance a few millimeters further.
And then there is the "You're one of the 10,000" XKCD comic to counter this point.
There is just too much to know, even important stuff, for even smart old people to have been exposed to it.
Sure, you'll have a higher chance of surprising young people, who have less experience. But you can still surprise old people too.
Smart old people still have a lot to learn.
There’s a scene in Michael Lewis’ book The New New Thing that chronicles a tear in a sail on Netscape investor Jim Clark’s mega yacht, the Hyperion. That ripped sail, way up on the 194-foot mast, stops the trip.
The Hyperion had at the time, the most advanced electronic monitoring and control systems. Yet, it took a crew member, a rare sailor among those on board, to notice a strange whipping sound, climb up the mast, and verify that the giant sail was ripping in the wind. While everyone on board was exposed to the same sound, few noticed that it was unusual. Fewer knew how to investigate and determine that the problem existed.
PG has seemed to have a fixation on youth, since at least one essay before YC was started, and there's still hints of it in YC practices today.
And I sometimes wonder whether our field would have so much techbro ageism, and the irrationally large egos of many early-20s 'founders', had PG not influenced tech industry culture quite so much.
Traditionally, in our teens and early 20s, we'd be vapid hormonal know-it-alls. (That's OK, it's normal, I did it too; no criticism.)
And the most validation of that we'd get (outside our equally naive peers) would a condescending pat on the head, from people who'd gone through that enthusiastically naive developmental phase themselves.
About up until the time we had to get a real job, and then we were confronted with not being as good as the experienced people, and the real world wasn't putting congratulatory star stickers on our homework.
So we'd grow out of it, and buckle down for the real education of post-school life.
Until then -- unless we were a not-yet-injured athlete in a marketable spectator sport, or an aspiring star working our way up the Hollywood casting couches, or being lured into a cult -- not many people would tell us that we were the superior person to be pursuing something, better than the people with experience and wisdom.
Maybe that was a good thing. (Not the youth who got exploited, but that the rest of us weren't given stuffed heads when we needed to start learning with humility.)
But then we got survivor bias kids of the dotcom boom and early PG influence era, like Zuckerberg, who, once they won the lottery, very vocally promoted the ageism. Because, hey, it worked for them.
The current tech industry jobs bloodbath will disabuse a lot of people of the silliness, too late for them. But we'll still have founders/managers aspiring to be billionaires, taking astrology-based lottery number-picking advice from past lottery winners.
Or more precisely, young (in their 20s) founders.
Possibly because he was already 32 when he founded Viaweb, and 41 when he founded YC.
I don't think that young people are the primary audience for the selfish gene, despite this being the archetypal example of writing to smart people about important topics.
Paul, your audience doesn't skew young. It skews credulous.
The argument was built on a weak premise. Ignores that learning is time consuming. And in some cases, money consuming. So, it does not follow that 'If you're writing for smart people about important things, you're writing for the young'.
Also, simpler explanation for the author having a young audience: The author is associated with a popular VC firm and writes a lot about tech entrepreneurship.
For example, if I write an essay about how the world is round, most people would ignore it because they already have that "diff". But the essay (the diffs) presuppose some knowledge: what we mean by "the world" and what "round" means. A 2-year old might not have the base knowledge for the diffs to be effective, and so it wouldn't affect them either.
The more knowledge you assume, the more likely it is for the essay to be novel. Science papers are like this. They are almost all novel because they only include the diffs from the current knowledge in the field. But, of course, only a small set of people are affected by the diffs because only a small set has the baseline knowledge.
Paul Graham's idea is that young people don't have a large knowledge base, so it is easy to create diffs for them that are novel (and therefore impact them). But that assumes that knowledge is a scalar quantity: young people have knowledge level 2 while older people have knowledge level 5.
Instead, I think knowledge is an n-dimensional field. There is knowledge about how to cook, how to dress, how to solve differential equations, etc. There's a vast sea of ideas that I never understood until I had kids. I understand exhaustion now in a way that I never could before. Fear too. And joy. Until I had that baseline, all those diffs failed to merge.
Reading one essay may not change much for you. Sometimes you can't even tell what the diffs were. But each essay you read adds more baseline knowledge that makes the next essay more impactful. Maybe that's why I like reading Paul's essays: now that I've read enough of them I have enough of a common baseline to understand the diffs.
I think it's not the shape of the essay field that matters, but the baseline in your brain.
This is remarkably similar to the thesis of Strange Tools by Alva Noë. Noë argues that art is method for making perceptual and conceptual processes visible, often by disrupting or defamiliarizing them.
We all build up mental frameworks and systems for how we think the world is organized, and that's how we come to "know" it. It's mostly assumptions and invariants we've collected here and there. With age and experience, they become instinctual and habitual too. "Change X and Y will happen".
But when someone comes along and pops one of those foundational assumptions, "You know 'Y' doesn't always have to be true, and here's how", it is an incredible gift. A smart person will suddenly see new landscapes of possibility, optimism, and exploration that were previously out of view. What they thought they knew they now see anew.
What’s missing is the third and most obvious explanation.. that what you think is important isn’t necessarily what others think is important..
Perhaps PG things this falls under the “obtuse” category.
(d) because it's false.
I'm not saying PG's essay is false, but my scientific upbringing, and rare moments of humility, compel me to include this option.
(e) because it’s subjective.
2. Whether something is true has nothing to do with whether the reader knows it. I know many false things and ideas.
For instance: why is 'true' included in the TJB triad? 'Justified' should cover it, no? This gap seems to be the cause of the Gettier silliness.
To expand on each part: 'believe' is a rather tricky Theory-of-Mind concept in itself. Eg: how familiar with a scientific model like AGW do you need to be to be allowed to 'believe' it? 'True' is similarly difficult. 'Justified' is the most sensible part, but that is still very difficult. I think science is what it boils down to.
I think philosophers really badly want a concept of Knowledge that is a meaningful and 'hard'. For their own title to make sense, actually. They love it; shame if it was all sloppy thinking.
Importance is a loaded idea here. Important to whom? Importance is very contextual. So, for that matter is inexperience. People have vastly different reasons for being inexperienced in any given domain, and youth is only one of them. I for one am inexperienced at riding jet skis, and youth, unfortunately, is not the reason. And yet, to the right person, an essay about jet ski riding might be exactly what they need to read right now.
Sometimes I learn new things because they are new. And sometimes I learn new things (that are well known to people in other fields) because while I know a lot about some things, I know very little about others -- so little that I don't even know those things overlap with my interests.
Those of us who enjoy learning appreciate that we will never know everything we would like to, and in fact we will never know the boundaries of knowledge for topics we care a lot about. It's not that it is unimportant to us, it's just that we hadn't learned about it yet. That's why we read essays.
I think the point that PG is trying to make is that young people are easier to influence.
I don't know if acquiring new knowledge guarantees that it's going to be transformative in the way that it can be for the young, especially for those who are young today.
The intention behind acquiring knowledge can make a difference too. I imagine that a young person more likely aiming to independently acquire knowledge due to some practical want, than an older person who may be more content with the theory behind it.
But this is me speculating on a sensitive dichotomy. Although I think we should let the young guys have this one.
silvestrov•6mo ago
The content in this essay applies just as well to YouTube videos and TikToks.