Early on I would expect a whole lot of "horizontal gene transfer" sort of things to have taken place. So for example in addition to actual horizontal gene transfer, there are mechanisms like one organism enveloping another to eventually become organelles, co-opting products from each other, etc. All of which would act to homogenize life and make certain process ubiquitous.
Finally, there's an outside chance that "there's only one way to do it".
Life increases entropy and doesn't break 2nd law of thermodynamics.
And of course nothing is ruling out life in the nooks and crannies of Mars.
The big problem is that the solar wind strips away the atmosphere and water, but that's (probably) not what killed all Martian life. As the magnetic field decreases, more and more harmful radiation reaches the surface. The planet was probably sterilized by radiation long before the atmosphere was lost and the oceans evaporated.
We're pretty sure this is what happened. We've been studying Mars's geology for a long time and we can see evidence for most of this process.
If this isn’t true, and life is actually common throughout the galaxy ... then the great filter might still be ahead of us — such as not surviving technological adolescence. Meaning we’re not special, we just haven’t died off yet.
Great filters start with the observation that we have detected no signs of alien technological civilization. The assumption is this means they’re rare.
In other words, even if the average technological civilisation lasts 1000 years, the odds of those civilisations overlapping are nearly zero if the great filter is ahead of us. Unless civilisations manage to last much, much longer than 1,000 years (millions of years), the chance that two blips overlap in time and space closely enough to detect each other is basically negligible.
That is why the “life on Mars” point feels ominous:
- If abiogenesis is easy, the filter isn’t there.
- If the filter is later (like surviving technological adolescence), then most civilisations blink out quickly.
Which means overlapping, detectable civilisations would be vanishingly rare, explaining the silence, but also suggesting our future may be short.
We aren’t special. We will die off.
Personally I think the great filter is a dumb idea for precisely the reason you posit. The universe is (probably) infinite, which means there's an infinite probability that we aren't special or alone. Maybe we're the first; the universe is (relatively) pretty young from what we can tell. I doubt that too, but I think it's one of the most plausible explanations.
But really what it comes down to is that in an infinite universe, the probability of anything happening exaxtlt once is infinitely small. It is infinitely more probable that there is or will be other life out there.
Really, out of uncountable trillions of planets in trillions of galaxies across tens of billions of years, how could it be that exactly one planet can produce life? I think it's egotistical navel-gazing in the extreme to assume we're alone.
The more common that life is, the more likely it is in front of us.
In fact, this makes the preoccupation with humans escaping a Great Filter all the more childish. Even on a single planet the species that will evolve from humans by the time Earth is swallowed by the sun will have less in common with humans than we do now with single cell organisms. Internalize that fact a little bit. Once you realize it is absurd to talk about the human species being preserved as is to the end of time, you will understand the silliness of this obsession. Cause after that point you might as well believe in a deity.
If it makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside, it suffices to hope that only single cell organisms survive the Great Filter, since given enough time it might lead to something that is as intelligent or more intelligent and kind than humans.
Embrace the silliness. The answer to "Why should we humans spread to other planets?" need only be "Why the fuck not?"
That is, unless you want to fund your rocket company. In which case you have to make people believe in a deity.
We can't know or even begin to guess at what an alien civilization may do or think or how they evolved. Best we can do is assume it's probably somewhat similar to our experience. At least it's based on something factual. Anything else is really just wild speculation.
We pretty much have to assume aliens will be sort of similar to us because we haven't met any. Our experience is the only one we've got, so it's the most reasonable baseline we have. We know that aliens will probably be wildly different from us, but it's so unknowable as to be moot. Do we base our assumptions on Heinlein's writing? Asimov? Douglas Adams? Anything other than what we know from our own experience is just fanciful fiction.
But also you're not supposed to take as read the Fermi paradox, Kardashev scale, or any other ways of thinking about aliens. It's implied that they won't be anything like us. You're not supposed to take it as a literal statement that alien species will be hairless bipeds with a warlike society who think and look like us. You're supposed to follow the assumptions that statistically, we're probably not special as a species and probably any aliens we meet will have evolved along similar lines and probably will be relatable to us. Implicitly we understand that this likely is not true. We just don't know and there aren't really any options that are more reasonable or reliable than basing assumptions on the one and only planet we know that has intelligent life.
Put simply, I expect the universe is littered with single-celled life. I think multicellular life, on the other hand, is rare.
Which in turn depends on existing enough atmospheric oxygen for mitochondria to make sense in first place. I believe the filter is atmospheric oxygen. If Earth had more iron in the crust, perhaps the cyanobacteria would never finish oxidizing all of it, and we would be doomed to only host microscopic life forever. Macroscopic life requires high-energy metabolism molecular oxygen allows.
The much more reasonable explanation is that life emerged on one planet and transferred over. Earth and Mars aren't particularly close, but they're close enough for material to transfer between them, particularly early in the solar system when there were far more asteroid impacts kicking rocks and dust out into space.
Unfortunately most of the evidence is going to be like this. The chances for better evidence would probably require a sample return of some sort, and even then I wouldn't expect a smoking gun (either way).
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/26/science/nasa-perseverance...
https://earthsky.org/space/life-on-mars-leopard-spots-poppy-...
So if you feel like you heard this story before, then it's probably one of the previous times this rock made the rounds
Is it more clear than the presence of artificial canals on the planet? Because at the time, the signs were quite clear as well.
…yes. Exhibit A is TFA. Exhibit B is the claim that there is ancient life has a lower burden of proof than that there was an ancient technological civilization.
I'm not an expert on the topic here, but at arm's length this sure seems like responsible scientists doing their best to rigorously study something with some crazy implications. They're not saying "OMG guys there was life on mars!!!!", they're saying from what we can tell with Perseverance's little portable lab these rocks sure seem consistent with a biosignature. Their conclusion is that gee it would be great to have samples brought back to earth for better analysis, which... maybe one day, who knows? Here's what they actually say:
Ultimately, we conclude that analysis of the core sample collected from this unit using high-sensitivity instrumentation on Earth will enable the measurements required to determine the origin of the minerals, organics and textures it contains.Is it notable that the "someone else" is Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy referring to the publication with “After a year of review, they have come back and they said, listen, we can’t find another explanation, so this very well could be the clearest sign of life that we’ve ever found on Mars"?
Can anyone speak more towards this or identify some of these potential sites that harbor life on mars? Will we ever directly probe somewhere that likely harbors life?
Source?
If we eventually find martian microbes, or at least their fossils, my bet is that we'll find them to be related to us.
stevenjgarner•2h ago
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/10/science/nasa-mars-sapphire-fa...
pncnmnp•1h ago
> The Perseverance rover has explored and sampled igneous and sedimentary rocks within Jezero Crater to characterize early Martian geological processes and habitability and search for potential biosignatures ..... the organic-carbon-bearing mudstones in the Bright Angel formation contain submillimetre-scale nodules and millimetre-scale reaction fronts enriched in ferrous iron phosphate and sulfide minerals, likely vivianite and greigite, respectively.
> Organic matter was detected in the Bright Angel area mudstone targets Cheyava Falls, Walhalla Glades and Apollo Temple by the SHERLOC instrument ..... A striking feature observed in the Cheyava Falls target (and the corresponding Sapphire Canyon core sample), is distinct spots (informally referred to as ‘leopard spots’ by the Mars 2020 Science Team) that have circular to crenulated dark-toned rims and lighter-toned cores
> PIXL XRF analyses of reaction front rims reveal they are enriched in Fe, P and Zn relative to the mudstone they occur in ..... In the reaction front cores, a phase enriched in S-, Fe-, Ni- and Zn was detected
> Given the potential challenges to the null hypothesis, we consider here an alternative biological pathway for the formation of authigenic nodules and reaction fronts. On Earth, vivianite nodules are known to form in fresh water ..... and marine ..... settings as a by-product of low-temperature microbially mediated Fe-reduction reactions.
> In summary, our analysis leads us to conclude that the Bright Angel formation contains textures, chemical and mineral characteristics, and organic signatures that warrant consideration as ‘potential biosignatures’ that is, “a feature that is consistent with biological processes and that, when encountered, challenges the researcher to attribute it either to inanimate or to biological processes, compelling them to gather more data before reaching a conclusion as to the presence or absence of life .....
I had to look up PIXL XRF from this paper - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.01544 - it is:
> The Planetary Instrument for X-ray Lithochemistry (PIXL) is an X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometer mounted on the arm of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars 2020 Perseverance rover (Allwood et al., 2020; Allwood et al., 2021). PIXL delivers a sub-millimeter focused, raster scannable X-ray beam, capable of determining the fine-scale distribution of elements in martian rock and regolith targets. PIXL was conceived following the work by Allwood et al. (2009) that demonstrated how micro-XRF elemental mapping could reveal the fine-textured chemistry of layered rock structures of ~3,450-million-year-old Archean stromatolitic fossils. Their work not only pushed back the accepted earliest possible window for the beginning of life on Earth, but also demonstrated that significant science return might be possible through XRF mapping. PIXL was proposed, selected, and developed to carry out petrologic exploration that provide the paleoenvironmental context required in the search for biosignatures on Mars, analogous to Allwood et al.’s earlier work.
awesome_dude•1h ago
It should (IMO) be reported as, we just don't know (yet), there's some really fascinating things that we cannot explain in any other way, yet, but that doesn't actually mean that we know for sure.