So do a currency swap? South Korea isn't failing, do surely there would people to offer liquidity or financing to make it possible.
FX swaps are where Korea fronts up with however many trillion KRW, giving it to the Fed (or whoever else, but the Fed would be the only counterparty that would be able to accommodate that size), the Fed then hands over the USD to the Koreans.
Presumably, the Koreans would then invest that USD.
Then at some point in the future the trade would be unwound and each side would receive their own currency back.
There's no currency risk in the trade for either side (unless one side defaults).
What is the benefit they or their people would get?
“Trump says the investments will be "selected" by him and controlled by the U.S., meaning Washington would have discretion over where the money will be invested.”
$500 billion for Stargate!
How many of Trump's investment deals from the first term panned out?
Like the president deciding exactly where business investment should be made is the definition of a government command economy (remember that "Communism" bogeyman???), which used to be the antithesis of American economic policy (at least in theory), and now we're just all like "OK, cool". It's so sickening.
And even then, a lot of its military dependants are just kidding themselves that the seps will come to their aid if required.
Its ephemeral.
Depending on how the one country treats the others, it might be ok - like it is kind of ok for some animals to live in a zoo, I guess. Or it could turn out very bad - all other countries becoming slave colonies of the one that rules the world.
Currently it seems like only two countries are really taking part in the AI race. The USA and China.
On a political level, I am not sure if there is still time for the rest of the world to try and avoid becoming 100% dependent on them. It looks like there is not even awareness of the issue.
On a personal level, it is an interesting question, how one should brace themselves for the times ahead.
History is replete with these supposed silver bullets. (See: Marinetti.) They rarely pan out that way in the long run.
And if AGI really is that level of civilisation changer, the country it's discovered in matters much less than the people it's loyal to. (If GPT or Grok become self aware and exponentially self improving, they're probably not going to give two shits about America's elected government.)
A more coherent critique might lay out the shortcomings of both flavors of economic interventionism. Instead, we're stuck in a partisan debate over who has a better central planning approach. Maybe there are reasonable or pragmatic points to be made there, but admitting as much allows the possibility that perhaps Trump's interventions should be measured empirically, rather than rejected based on the a priori flaws of interventionism.
Partisans are free to pick and choose which statistics and time periods they feel best illustrate their case. Easy to see how this devolves into incoherence.
Oh and the President is advocating that businesses should stop quarterly reporting...
The questions are:
Is it is more or less destructive than the alternative destruction? Who is it more economically destructive for? Over what time period is it more or less destructive than the alternative interventionism? Is 6 months a meaningful time horizon?
It becomes muddled very quickly. I would appeal for a consistent approach which opposes both forms of destructive interventionism.
I think this is what Japan did initially. Announce a huge number, 500 bn I think, and then slowly trickle out the news that it will be over 10 or so years.
But that didn't sit well with trump. There was news immediately that Japan must invest the whole amount immediately to escape tariffs.
In the same way politician outside of the US trust anymore what Trump says when it comes to economics, a lot of countries seem to have started to response the same way. I.e. speak with Trump like he did with them, do hollow promises, and then backtrack and/or circumvent them.
The leaders of countries have to deal with internal politics. Most People, with a capital P, do not like feeling abused and mugged, and will be angry at their leaders for acting so weak.
It seems that internal politics are winning out, at least in the moment, over the current US admins threats
* Completely alienated key allies via an erratic and unpredictable tariff policy
* Significantly undermined faith in US economic data and fiscal policy via overt politicization of key economic institutions
* Increased the deficit by almost $3 trillion after vowing to reduce the deficit
* Signaled far and wide that pay for play is the new norm, whether for pardons or favourable policy. Preferably paid in crypto, but with in kind payments being acceptable.
Is there any wonder that other countries are unwilling to trust the US? The only hope we have is that the current bout of madness in Washington DC is a one time aberration, but who knows!
Look, I think the people involved should be waiting trial in the Hague as much as the next man, but let's be real. They could kill another 5.2 million people, and nobody would start WW3 over it.
Some people's lives are simply worth more than others to world powers, and in this case, the Thanksgiving Turkey getting a stay of execution would get more people to tune in to the telly.
Moderate podcaster Scott Galloway has recently shown up on my feed and he's had some interesting things to say about this.
His most recent suggestion was that a consumer boycott of all non-essentials could grind the administration to a halt by eroding support from the donor class. (It would also implode the economy, but not without sending a message.)
There is no hope for it to return. The West has credible evidence that the American populace are untrustworthy, uncaring, and frankly, stupid.
The only way for the US to restore credibility is to prosecute. And then survive another 100 years without doing it again.
The remaining influence it has economically and militarily should be considered to be "running on fumes."
US allies are looking for an exit strategy and aren't going to reconsider. Russia won.
I fully anticipate this to be downvoted, I don't care. You are coping if you think America can pull itself out of this.
I’ve been hearing people pray this is a one time aberration for the last 10 years. At this point, the ride seems way more likely to get bumpier than not for the next 10 years.
I know for example that in Canada and Europe, we're mostly all pretty disturbed about these trade disruptions, but I'm curious if Korean's feel equally 'put off'. Are they as dependent on the US as Canada and Europe?
I don't agree with Peter Zeihan on many of his views, but I think his point about the collapse of the global order set up by America is what's happening.
Trump is dismantling the global order/rule of laws established by America after WWII and the Cold War. I find it ironic that Ian Bremmer said the Chinese care more about the rule of law (established by America) than Americans do in this interview
anigbrowl•2h ago
calmbonsai•2h ago
JumpCrisscross•2h ago
wombatpm•1h ago
The Chinese understand. Notice how there are no soybean purchases from China this year. They do not trust the US on important things like food.
JumpCrisscross•1h ago
Plenty of great negotitors across history did, too. Trump gets played. Repeatedly. Predictably. His political instincts have been sharp enough that I'm increasingly chalking this up to age, but maybe he just had a better team around him the first time around.
defrost•11m ago
I've always had high regard for Trump as a talented scumbag grifter of note.
He's been noticeably and increasingly off game since it seemed he was only campaigning for re-election to avoid a mountain of looming bad legal outcomes.
Much of his early second term "wins" I've marked as momentum success from having a ready to go game plan care of the Project 2025 crowd. His carry through on tariffs, dodging Epstein complications, handling free speech issues, etc. have been more chaotic than cunning.
dboreham•11m ago
3eb7988a1663•40m ago
somenameforme•1h ago
But the agreements themselves are completely informal and an overview of what the US expects to see happen in order to maintain the tariff reductions. The interpretation of whether the other country or group of countries is abiding the agreement is entirely at the discretion of Trump.
So there's no such thing as a loop hole. If Trump isn't satisfied with e.g. the EU's progress towards implementing said agreement, he can increase tariffs back to where they were at his discretion, with or without reason given. So there's no such thing as a loop hole in this sort of agreement.
tensor•1h ago
protocolture•1h ago
And like other blockaded nations, North Korea and Palestine, the US will reach its intended levels of greatness within minutes.
bruce511•6m ago
In boardrooms around the world there us of course concern to protecting the existing US market. And in the short term there are lots of noises to placate the US.
At the same time there's a recognition that the US is not a stable long-term partner. The bigger conversation is around new markets, building diversity of markets, diversity of investment and so on.
"Global Trade" is mostly not an organised thing. It's a zillion small transactions between individuals, small companies and so on. Ultimately my (US) customers will pay the tarifs to their govt, or not (shrug). In the meantime I'm looking for non-US customers for my business growth. I'm investing anywhere except the US, because the current uncertainty is bad for making investment decisions.
Ultimately this process is a wake up call to suppliers who have focused on the US market. And to those future businesses to come. Diversify markets, because then you aren't beholden to them.
In 10 years time, regardless of who is in power, or the conditions then, the lesson will remain.
akudha•1h ago
Just curious, how would this help with anything, other than documentation purposes?
slater•1h ago
riku_iki•1h ago
vkou•37m ago
2. He lies when his lips move. When you're dealing with a pathological liar, there's no reason to believe anything he says that paints him in a good light - until it's been independently confirmed.
thfuran•1h ago
3eb7988a1663•49m ago
anigbrowl•35m ago
Prickle•49m ago
So the Japanese government pointed at the written agreement and told the trump admin to get their shit together. A few days later, the tariff reductions on Japanese goods was hastily added on.
yongjik•58m ago
I think there's an implicit understanding that having a written deal would be worse for Korea because the deal will bind Korea and restrict its options, while Trump is a crazy guy and can and will do anything he wants, whether he signed something or not. I.e., any written deal with Trump has negative worth.
Such is the state of global trade negotiation these days.
seydor•48m ago
MangoCoffee•35m ago
Agreements on paper doesn't mean anything to Trump.
Despite negotiating the USMCA with Canada and Mexico during his first term, Trump still threatened to impose tariffs on both countries.
What is the point of having an agreement like USMCA?