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South Korea's President says US investment demands would spark financial crisis

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/21/south-koreas-president-lee-trump-investment-financial-crisis.html
107•donsupreme•3h ago

Comments

anigbrowl•2h ago
You're going ot keep seeing more of this. The Japanese went through multiple rounds of the WH announcing they'd reached a deal and the Japanese saying politely but firmly that negotiations were still ongoing. The Japanese insisted on having everything in writing, and if you look at the executive order that was eventually published it's full of loopholes like 'best efforts' and 'aspirations' that articulate shared goals, but little the in the way of binding commitments.
calmbonsai•2h ago
Agreed. It was, initially, quite alarming (though no longer anymore) at how different the actual words in the Executive Orders differ from what was said about the policies they were, ostensibly, enforcing or creating.
JumpCrisscross•2h ago
The truth is Trump is a bad negotiator. He's easily played. He's also predictably dishonest. The only real move is to string him along, which he seems to be glad to do, particularly if someone flatters or threatens to punch him.
wombatpm•1h ago
He negotiates in bad faith. No deal is final. He will change the terms to meet his whims.

The Chinese understand. Notice how there are no soybean purchases from China this year. They do not trust the US on important things like food.

JumpCrisscross•1h ago
> He negotiates in bad faith

Plenty of great negotitors across history did, too. Trump gets played. Repeatedly. Predictably. His political instincts have been sharp enough that I'm increasingly chalking this up to age, but maybe he just had a better team around him the first time around.

defrost•11m ago
> increasingly chalking this up to age

I've always had high regard for Trump as a talented scumbag grifter of note.

He's been noticeably and increasingly off game since it seemed he was only campaigning for re-election to avoid a mountain of looming bad legal outcomes.

Much of his early second term "wins" I've marked as momentum success from having a ready to go game plan care of the Project 2025 crowd. His carry through on tariffs, dodging Epstein complications, handling free speech issues, etc. have been more chaotic than cunning.

dboreham•11m ago
No. It's explicitly self-destructive. He gets off on setting things on fire, including himself.
3eb7988a1663•40m ago
I assumed the soybean thing was more about sending a message. Soybeans are the number one US export crop. Shutting down the market is a big financial blow, makes the trade deficit worse, and angers farmers who otherwise would have happily sold to the Chinese.
somenameforme•1h ago
People are confused about what these published agreements (like with the EU as well) are. They're not legal agreements, treaties, or even executive orders, although the corresponding orders to reduce the tariffs are of course executive orders.

But the agreements themselves are completely informal and an overview of what the US expects to see happen in order to maintain the tariff reductions. The interpretation of whether the other country or group of countries is abiding the agreement is entirely at the discretion of Trump.

So there's no such thing as a loop hole. If Trump isn't satisfied with e.g. the EU's progress towards implementing said agreement, he can increase tariffs back to where they were at his discretion, with or without reason given. So there's no such thing as a loop hole in this sort of agreement.

tensor•1h ago
The loop hole is every nation just agrees to stop dealing with the US and isolate them. Sure, we’d all suffer horribly but at least the west would have a future, vs we all suffer horribly anyways and fall along with the US.
protocolture•1h ago
This is the ideal outcome. Just produce the trade blockade that the US is trying to achieve through policy.

And like other blockaded nations, North Korea and Palestine, the US will reach its intended levels of greatness within minutes.

bruce511•6m ago
I don't think agreement is necessary. I think each will, in turn, come to their own conclusions.

In boardrooms around the world there us of course concern to protecting the existing US market. And in the short term there are lots of noises to placate the US.

At the same time there's a recognition that the US is not a stable long-term partner. The bigger conversation is around new markets, building diversity of markets, diversity of investment and so on.

"Global Trade" is mostly not an organised thing. It's a zillion small transactions between individuals, small companies and so on. Ultimately my (US) customers will pay the tarifs to their govt, or not (shrug). In the meantime I'm looking for non-US customers for my business growth. I'm investing anywhere except the US, because the current uncertainty is bad for making investment decisions.

Ultimately this process is a wake up call to suppliers who have focused on the US market. And to those future businesses to come. Diversify markets, because then you aren't beholden to them.

In 10 years time, regardless of who is in power, or the conditions then, the lesson will remain.

akudha•1h ago
insisted on having everything in writing

Just curious, how would this help with anything, other than documentation purposes?

slater•1h ago
Paper trail, to be referenced later, so TFG can't be all "huh, never said that, never agreed to that" etc. etc.
riku_iki•1h ago
and then what? Trump put specific numbers about trade balance on paper with China during previous trade war, which China just ignored.
vkou•37m ago
1. "Specific numbers about trade balance' isn't a negotiation term. It might be a prior that feeds into your position in negotiation, but it's not an outcome.

2. He lies when his lips move. When you're dealing with a pathological liar, there's no reason to believe anything he says that paints him in a good light - until it's been independently confirmed.

thfuran•1h ago
I don’t understand why you think it would stop that, given how comprehensive a record of self-contradiction he already has.
3eb7988a1663•49m ago
Maybe more in that it gives the Japanese an easy out to change terms when America inevitably breaks the deal.
anigbrowl•35m ago
True, but the Japanese government is accountable to Japanese voters and their business community. If they see Trump reneging on or twisting an agreement they'll be more likely to blame Trump than the LDP. He's not popular there nowadays except among Sanseito members.
Prickle•49m ago
Paper trail stuff. But more importantly, when the first set of executive orders reducing tariffs rates went out, it conveniently mentioned Japanese investments but did not include tariff reductions for Japanese goods.

So the Japanese government pointed at the written agreement and told the trump admin to get their shit together. A few days later, the tariff reductions on Japanese goods was hastily added on.

yongjik•58m ago
Funnily enough, according to some South Korean news, the Korean government deliberately postponed having a final written deal, or at least that's what some news articles claim, because it was such a horrible deal for Korea.

I think there's an implicit understanding that having a written deal would be worse for Korea because the deal will bind Korea and restrict its options, while Trump is a crazy guy and can and will do anything he wants, whether he signed something or not. I.e., any written deal with Trump has negative worth.

Such is the state of global trade negotiation these days.

seydor•48m ago
The more times you can announce you "made a deal" , the better the TV ratings
MangoCoffee•35m ago
>everything in writing

Agreements on paper doesn't mean anything to Trump.

Despite negotiating the USMCA with Canada and Mexico during his first term, Trump still threatened to impose tariffs on both countries.

What is the point of having an agreement like USMCA?

charcircuit•2h ago
>“Without a currency swap, if we were to withdraw $350 billion in the manner that the U.S. is demanding and to invest this all in cash in the U.S., South Korea would face a situation as it had in the 1997 financial crisis,” he said through a translator.

So do a currency swap? South Korea isn't failing, do surely there would people to offer liquidity or financing to make it possible.

msy•1h ago
There aren't a lot of counterparties to a $350Bn currency swap. SK is manoeuvring to make the Fed offering the swap and thus taking the FX risk as a requirement for this deal, which is I suspect why you're reading about this.
bfg_9k•35m ago
That's... not how FX swaps work.

FX swaps are where Korea fronts up with however many trillion KRW, giving it to the Fed (or whoever else, but the Fed would be the only counterparty that would be able to accommodate that size), the Fed then hands over the USD to the Koreans.

Presumably, the Koreans would then invest that USD.

Then at some point in the future the trade would be unwound and each side would receive their own currency back.

There's no currency risk in the trade for either side (unless one side defaults).

awilson5454•1h ago
I’m not convinced that we know more about South Korea’s economic situation than their Prime Minister’s office.
lovich•40m ago
Why would the South Korean government trade even more resources for this deal?

What is the benefit they or their people would get?

instagib•2h ago
$350 billion investment to avoid tariffs.

“Trump says the investments will be "selected" by him and controlled by the U.S., meaning Washington would have discretion over where the money will be invested.”

dchftcs•1h ago
You can choose to invest 350 billion in the real economy, or 350 million in TrumpCoin.
JumpCrisscross•1h ago
> $350 billion investment to avoid tariffs

$500 billion for Stargate!

How many of Trump's investment deals from the first term panned out?

hn_throwaway_99•1h ago
It's really astonishing to me how quickly we all (or, more specifically, Congress, which as done absolutely nothing to push back) accept that this is just how things work now.

Like the president deciding exactly where business investment should be made is the definition of a government command economy (remember that "Communism" bogeyman???), which used to be the antithesis of American economic policy (at least in theory), and now we're just all like "OK, cool". It's so sickening.

palmfacehn•1h ago
At this point the debate has been reduced to which flavor of central planning you prefer or dislike least.
sidcool•1h ago
There's a problem here. World depending so much on one country. It's a single point of failure.
ares623•1h ago
Up until recently it was a good trade-off.
toomuchtodo•1h ago
The US sold trust, and it burned it all up for someone's ego. Unfortunate.
testrun•41m ago
This is the crux of the problem. The value of US treasuries and the USD is based on the trust of the world in the US. Now, who knows what will happen to the USD. Will have to wait and see.
protocolture•1h ago
The US has more foreign dependencies, than it has countries depending on it, on every level except military.

And even then, a lot of its military dependants are just kidding themselves that the seps will come to their aid if required.

Its ephemeral.

cozzyd•1h ago
With so many investments, imagine how many ICE raids there could be!
ArtTimeInvestor•1h ago
If one country manages to outpace all others in the race to better AI, all other countries are at the mercy of that one country.

Depending on how the one country treats the others, it might be ok - like it is kind of ok for some animals to live in a zoo, I guess. Or it could turn out very bad - all other countries becoming slave colonies of the one that rules the world.

Currently it seems like only two countries are really taking part in the AI race. The USA and China.

On a political level, I am not sure if there is still time for the rest of the world to try and avoid becoming 100% dependent on them. It looks like there is not even awareness of the issue.

On a personal level, it is an interesting question, how one should brace themselves for the times ahead.

JumpCrisscross•55m ago
> If one country manages to outpace all others in the race to better AI, all other countries are at the mercy of that one country

History is replete with these supposed silver bullets. (See: Marinetti.) They rarely pan out that way in the long run.

And if AGI really is that level of civilisation changer, the country it's discovered in matters much less than the people it's loyal to. (If GPT or Grok become self aware and exponentially self improving, they're probably not going to give two shits about America's elected government.)

gdulli•22m ago
All we can do is hope that it's China's population that succumbs first to the mediocrity and decay of offloading their thinking to machines.
palmfacehn•1h ago
It isn't immediately clear that the administration's heterodox approach to state capitalism is more destructive than what passes as orthodox. Personally I'm not a fan of either option. Given the general mainstream preference for interventionism, one could characterize it as a "progressive" approach to central planning.

A more coherent critique might lay out the shortcomings of both flavors of economic interventionism. Instead, we're stuck in a partisan debate over who has a better central planning approach. Maybe there are reasonable or pragmatic points to be made there, but admitting as much allows the possibility that perhaps Trump's interventions should be measured empirically, rather than rejected based on the a priori flaws of interventionism.

Partisans are free to pick and choose which statistics and time periods they feel best illustrate their case. Easy to see how this devolves into incoherence.

XorNot•1h ago
US unemployment is up, inflation is up, tourism is down, defence sales are being cancelled admidst the largest procurement expansion in history, foreign investment is down, business confidence has been shattered by an incoherent and arbitrarily changing tarrif regime.

Oh and the President is advocating that businesses should stop quarterly reporting...

palmfacehn•30m ago
I agree that the outcome will be destructive.

The questions are:

Is it is more or less destructive than the alternative destruction? Who is it more economically destructive for? Over what time period is it more or less destructive than the alternative interventionism? Is 6 months a meaningful time horizon?

It becomes muddled very quickly. I would appeal for a consistent approach which opposes both forms of destructive interventionism.

dboreham•7m ago
Many things are luck and uncontrollable events. So what you do is focus on not f.ing things up. Current usg is doing the exact opposite.
cryptonector•51m ago
Without commenting on any of the details or economics, the smart thing to have done would have been to make the $350bn thing be over 10 years and be slow to ramp up, then wait Trump out. I'm surprise he didn't do that.
kumarvvr•43m ago
trump and his cronies would never accept that.

I think this is what Japan did initially. Announce a huge number, 500 bn I think, and then slowly trickle out the news that it will be over 10 or so years.

But that didn't sit well with trump. There was news immediately that Japan must invest the whole amount immediately to escape tariffs.

dathinab•9m ago
I'm not sure a single country will to the "invest immediately" thing, like at all.

In the same way politician outside of the US trust anymore what Trump says when it comes to economics, a lot of countries seem to have started to response the same way. I.e. speak with Trump like he did with them, do hollow promises, and then backtrack and/or circumvent them.

lovich•42m ago
> I'm surprise he didn't do that.

The leaders of countries have to deal with internal politics. Most People, with a capital P, do not like feeling abused and mugged, and will be angry at their leaders for acting so weak.

It seems that internal politics are winning out, at least in the moment, over the current US admins threats

foogazi•28m ago
Look at it as being all internal politics - that’s where a leader’s power comes from
rapnie•41m ago
The tariffs. The overall situation. I do not understand why Wall Street isn't yet in a freefall. Did they find good sources of bubble fuel then to keep on the heat?
tommica•33m ago
Would it be possible that the tariffs are working? I'm clueless when it comes to these things, so it's a pure guess.
leptons•21m ago
It depends on from what angle you are looking at it. If the goal is to destabilize the US, then yes, the tariffs are working.
SpicyLemonZest•17m ago
The practical effects of the tariffs have been substantially more muted than most people expected. A lot of supply chain folks were genuinely expecting shelves to run empty by June or July. I would emphasize that “muted” isn’t “nonexistent”, and a lot of metrics would be down if not for AI investment. But it seems that a lot of people are still interested in buying from and selling to the US even with a crazy dictator in charge.
arunabha•37m ago
It's mind blowing to witness the speed and rapidity with which we have

* Completely alienated key allies via an erratic and unpredictable tariff policy

* Significantly undermined faith in US economic data and fiscal policy via overt politicization of key economic institutions

* Increased the deficit by almost $3 trillion after vowing to reduce the deficit

* Signaled far and wide that pay for play is the new norm, whether for pardons or favourable policy. Preferably paid in crypto, but with in kind payments being acceptable.

Is there any wonder that other countries are unwilling to trust the US? The only hope we have is that the current bout of madness in Washington DC is a one time aberration, but who knows!

CamperBob2•17m ago
He did say we'd get tired of all the winning.
FranzFerdiNaN•14m ago
They dont care. Their only goal is creating a white ethnostate based on Christian-fundamentalist principles. Destroying the economy and alliances is an acceptable loss.
dboreham•13m ago
Not really when you realize people elected a seriously mentally ill person.
DSingularity•12m ago
Don’t forget: our insane support for genocide and an out-of-control genocidal regime that’s clearly trying to trigger WW3.
vkou•8m ago
> Don’t forget: our insane support for genocide and an out-of-control genocidal regime that’s clearly trying to trigger WW3.

Look, I think the people involved should be waiting trial in the Hague as much as the next man, but let's be real. They could kill another 5.2 million people, and nobody would start WW3 over it.

Some people's lives are simply worth more than others to world powers, and in this case, the Thanksgiving Turkey getting a stay of execution would get more people to tune in to the telly.

JohnTHaller•12m ago
Don't forget the 800,000 layoffs so far this year.
echelon•11m ago
I'm mortified with how much we've sullied our reputation.

Moderate podcaster Scott Galloway has recently shown up on my feed and he's had some interesting things to say about this.

His most recent suggestion was that a consumer boycott of all non-essentials could grind the administration to a halt by eroding support from the donor class. (It would also implode the economy, but not without sending a message.)

lwansbrough•4m ago
No, the US has completely and utterly destroyed all credibility it had. It is a farce.

There is no hope for it to return. The West has credible evidence that the American populace are untrustworthy, uncaring, and frankly, stupid.

The only way for the US to restore credibility is to prosecute. And then survive another 100 years without doing it again.

The remaining influence it has economically and militarily should be considered to be "running on fumes."

US allies are looking for an exit strategy and aren't going to reconsider. Russia won.

I fully anticipate this to be downvoted, I don't care. You are coping if you think America can pull itself out of this.

gyomu•1m ago
> The only hope we have is that the current bout of madness in Washington DC is a one time aberration, but who knows!

I’ve been hearing people pray this is a one time aberration for the last 10 years. At this point, the ride seems way more likely to get bumpier than not for the next 10 years.

zzleeper•1m ago
Remember the story of Nero watching Rome burn, and asking how could he and everyone involved be so fool? Well I'm not surprised any more. Feels like a perfectly believable story :/
joshdavham•34m ago
I'm curious how the average Korean feels about what's going on in the US, or even how much they think about this stuff?

I know for example that in Canada and Europe, we're mostly all pretty disturbed about these trade disruptions, but I'm curious if Korean's feel equally 'put off'. Are they as dependent on the US as Canada and Europe?

MangoCoffee•24m ago
Many comments focus on Trump, but I think the deeper problem lies with America itself. After all, America elected Trump twice.

I don't agree with Peter Zeihan on many of his views, but I think his point about the collapse of the global order set up by America is what's happening.

Trump is dismantling the global order/rule of laws established by America after WWII and the Cold War. I find it ironic that Ian Bremmer said the Chinese care more about the rule of law (established by America) than Americans do in this interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cvvzx-ecTrw

dboreham•9m ago
Both can be true. Historians can dig into economic conditions in interwar Germany, lack of deep sea ports, colonies, etc. But also: Adolf he one mad cookie.

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