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OpenAI's Unit Economics

https://www.exponentialview.co/p/inside-openais-unit-economics-epoch-exponentialview
21•swolpers•3h ago

Comments

mellosouls•1h ago
Original is here (linked in the article):

https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/can-ai-companies-become-pr...

sa-code•48m ago
Thanks, could the link for this post be replaced with the original?
xyzsparetimexyz•41m ago
What I dont understand is, why would a company pay $10,000s a month to anthropic for Claude in a situation where a Chinese LLM is 99% as good, is open weight and runs on US servers and is 5% the price?
Arkhaine_kupo•38m ago
Isn't there pretty good indications that the chinese llms have been trained on top of the expensive models?

Their cost is not real.

Plus you have things like MCP or agents that are mostly being spearheaded by companies like Anthropic. So if it is "the future" and you believe in it, then you should pay a premium to spearhead it.

You want to bet on the first Boeing not the cheapest copy of a Wright brother plane.

(Full disclosure, I dont think its the future and I think we are over leveraging on AI to a degree that is, no pun intended, misanthropic)

malka1986•36m ago
> Isn't there pretty good indications that the chinese llms have been trained on top of the expensive models?

So what ?

fc417fc802•11m ago
Well it raises an interesting conundrum. Suppose there's a microcontroller that's $5.00 and another that's $0.50. The latter is a clone of the former. Are you better off worrying only about your short term needs, or should you take the long view and direct your business towards the former despite it being more expensive?
ForHackernews•8m ago
You're asking whether businesses will choose to pay a 1000% markup on commodities?
blitzar•4m ago
Suppose both microcontrollers will be out of date in a week and replaced by far more capable microcontrollers.

The long view is to see the microcontroller as a commodity piece of hardware that is rapidly changing. Now is not the time to go all in on betamax and take 10 years leases on physical blockbuster stores when streaming is 2 weeks away.

Ai is possibly the most open technological advance I have experienced - there is no excuse, this time, for skilled operators to be stuck for decades with AWS or some other propriety blend of vendor lock-in.

blitzar•34m ago
> Isn't there pretty good indications that the chinese llms have been trained on top of the expensive models?

there are pretty good indications that the american llms have been trained on top of stolen data

re-thc•31m ago
> Their cost is not real.

They can’t even officially account for any nvidia gpus they managed to buy outside the official channels.

ForHackernews•9m ago
This so-called "PC compatible" seems like a cheap copy, give me a real IBM every time.
re-thc•34m ago
How do they run on US servers? Self host? That’s not going to be cheap whilst the big AI players horde resources like memory.
Topfi•4m ago
There are many providers (Fireworks, Groq, Cerebras, Google Vertex), some using rather common hardware from Nvidia, etc., others their own solutions focused solely on high throughput inference. They often tend to be faster, cheaper and/or more reliable than what the lab that trained the model is charging [0], simply because there is some competition, unlike with US frontier models which at best can be hosted by Azure, AWS or GCloud at the same price as the first party.

[0] https://openrouter.ai/moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking

willis936•31m ago
By what metrics are they 99% as good? There are a lot of benchmarks out there. Please share them.

I think the answer lies in the "we actually care a lot about that 1% (which is actually a lot more than 1%)".

Topfi•20m ago
I'm still testing myself and cannot make a confident statement yet, but Artifical Analysis is a solid and independent source for a general overview: https://artificialanalysis.ai/

Kimi K2.5 is rather competitive in regard to pure output quality, agentic evals are also close to or beating US made frontier models and, lest we forget, the model is far more affordable than said competitors, to a point where it is frankly silly that we are actually comparing them.

For what it's worth, of the models I have been able to test as of yet, many purely on performance (meaning solely task adherence, output quality and agentic capabilities; so discounting price, speed, hosting flexibility), I have personally found the prior Kimi K2 Thinking model to be overall more usable and reliable than Gemini 3 Pro and Flash. Purely on output quality in very specific coding tasks, Opus 4.5 was in my testing leaps and bounds superior of both the Gemini models and K2 Thinking however, though task adherence was surprisingly less reliable than Haiku 4.5 or K2 Thinking.

Being many times more expensive and in some cases less reliably adhering to tasks, I really cannot say that Opus 4.5 is superior or Kimi K2 Thinking is inferior here. The latter is certainly better in my specific usage than any Gemini model and again, I haven't yet gone through this with K2.5. I try not to just presume from the outset that K2.5 is better than K2 Thinking, though even if K2.5 remains at the same level of quality and reliability, just with multi modal input, that'd make the model very competitive.

samuelknight•4m ago
Open models have been about 6 to 9 months behind frontier models, and this has been the case for the last 2 years. That is a very long time for this technology at it's current state of development.
eru•3m ago
Usain Bolt's top speed is about 44.72 km/h. My top speed sprinting is about 25 km/h. That's at least 50% as good. But I'd have a hard time getting paid even half as much as Mr Bolt.

Europe's next-generation weather satellite sends back first images

https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/meteosat_third_gener...
259•saubeidl•4h ago•43 comments

Vitamin D and Omega-3 have a larger effect on depression than antidepressants

https://blog.ncase.me/on-depression/
124•mijailt•1h ago•83 comments

Winapp, the Windows App Development CLI

https://blogs.windows.com/windowsdeveloper/2026/01/22/announcing-winapp-the-windows-app-developme...
29•MaysonL•5d ago•18 comments

Render Mermaid diagrams as SVGs or ASCII art

https://github.com/lukilabs/beautiful-mermaid
269•mellosouls•9h ago•42 comments

Apple to soon take up to 30% cut from all Patreon creators in iOS app

https://www.macrumors.com/2026/01/28/patreon-apple-tax/
463•pier25•14h ago•406 comments

We can't send mail farther than 500 miles (2002)

https://web.mit.edu/jemorris/humor/500-miles
412•giancarlostoro•7h ago•54 comments

Decompiling Xbox games using PDB debug info

https://i686.me/blog/csplit/
50•orange_redditor•2d ago•4 comments

The Chemistry of Tea [pdf]

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Matthew-Harbowy/publication/216792045_Tea_Chemistry/links/09...
35•aabiji•5d ago•3 comments

Maine’s ‘Lobster Lady’ who fished for nearly a century dies aged 105

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/28/maine-lobster-lady-dies-aged-105
152•NaOH•9h ago•28 comments

Mecha Comet – Open Modular Linux Handheld Computer

https://mecha.so/comet
158•Realman78•3d ago•46 comments

OpenAI's Unit Economics

https://www.exponentialview.co/p/inside-openais-unit-economics-epoch-exponentialview
21•swolpers•3h ago•17 comments

Airfoil (2024)

https://ciechanow.ski/airfoil/
474•brk•21h ago•52 comments

Xmake: A cross-platform build utility based on Lua

https://xmake.io/
56•phmx•4d ago•20 comments

Trinity large: An open 400B sparse MoE model

https://www.arcee.ai/blog/trinity-large
198•linolevan•1d ago•59 comments

Tesla ending Models S and X production

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla-ending-model-s-x-production.html
334•keyboardJones•12h ago•619 comments

Android's desktop interface leaks

https://9to5google.com/2026/01/27/android-desktop-leak/
250•thunderbong•1d ago•324 comments

Show HN: A MitM proxy to see what your LLM tools are sending

https://github.com/jmuncor/sherlock
176•jmuncor•16h ago•87 comments

Did a celebrated researcher obscure a baby's poisoning?

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/02/did-a-celebrated-researcher-obscure-a-fatal-poisoning
159•littlexsparkee•1d ago•55 comments

Questom (YC F25) is hiring an engineer

https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/questom/jobs/UBebsyO-founding-engineer
1•ritanshu•8h ago

Mousefood – Build embedded terminal UIs for microcontrollers

https://github.com/ratatui/mousefood
210•orhunp_•18h ago•46 comments

How London became the rest of the world’s startup capital

https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/01/26/how-london-became-the-rest-of-the-worlds-startup-cap...
126•ellieh•1d ago•163 comments

Satellites encased in wood are in the works

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/01/21/satellites-encased-in-wood-are-in-the...
61•andsoitis•3d ago•39 comments

LM Studio 0.4

https://lmstudio.ai/blog/0.4.0
158•jiqiren•17h ago•91 comments

In a genre where spoilers are devastating, how do we talk about puzzle games?

https://thinkygames.com/features/in-a-genre-where-information-is-sacred-and-spoilers-are-devastat...
69•tobr•5d ago•62 comments

Computer History Museum Launches Digital Portal to Its Collection

https://computerhistory.org/press-releases/computer-history-museum-launches-digital-portal-to-its...
161•ChrisArchitect•17h ago•27 comments

Bf-Tree: modern read-write-optimized concurrent larger-than-memory range index

https://github.com/microsoft/bf-tree
92•SchwKatze•13h ago•16 comments

Oban, the job processing framework from Elixir, has come to Python

https://www.dimamik.com/posts/oban_py/
237•dimamik•19h ago•92 comments

The Only Moat Left Is Knowing Things

https://growtika.com/blog/authenticity-edge
38•Growtika•4h ago•23 comments

Somebody used spoofed ADSB signals to raster the meme of JD Vance

https://alecmuffett.com/article/143548
497•wubin•13h ago•125 comments

Show HN: Externalized Properties, a modern Java configuration library

https://github.com/joel-jeremy/externalized-properties
5•jeyjeyemem•2d ago•1 comments