And how would you even use this model, given that there are no explanations that help you trust where the prediction comes from…
They decompose a time series into trends, seasonality and residuals. That’s what they are actually modelling.
They cannot predict wars in the Middle East influencing inflation unless there is a seasonal pattern(s).
I genuinely want to know. Thank you
FWIW— the only sure fire way to win the trade is to buy time and assume both gross incompetence and negligence when it comes action. The only caveat is if the markets tank enough, this administration will signal capitulation before hand, e.g. Trump mildly capitulating on tariffs last April after the markets proceed to relentlessly defecate themselves.
0-DTE options are typically, and for good reason, stupid gambles. But, right now they can’t even be considered gambling, because there’s zero chance of winning. Not just bad odds, but no odds. Again just signaling how truly malicious this admin is and its disdain for anyone and everyone not close to them.
New season of scrubs = new war in the middle east.
- decomposition: discover a more general form of Fourrier transform to untangle the underlying factors
- memorization: some patterns are recurrent in many domains such as power low
- multitask: exploit cross-domain connections such as weather vs electricity
As they say in appendix 8:
> We create the synthetic data to reflect common time-series patterns using traditional statistical models. We start with four simple times series patterns:
> • Piece-wise linear trends (I), where the number of the piece-wise linear components is randomly chosen between 2 and 8.
> • ARMA(p, q) (II), where 1 ≤ p, q ≤ 8 and the corresponding coefficients are generated from either a multivariate Gaussian or a uniform, then normalized.
> • Seasonal patterns. In particular we create the sine (III) and the cosine (IV) waves of different random periods between 4 and max context length / 2 time-points and time delays.
If there were no such underlying patterns in the class of all time-series data, then even the idea of traditional time-series models would be fundamentally misplaced.
And since this is a transformer model, it also looks for patterns in the problem-specific input data at inference time, just like how the input context to an LLM influences its output's relevance.
How can the same lossy compression algorithm (eg JPG) compress pictures of everything in a reliable way?
Text and anything with lots of high frequency components looks terrible
There is infinitely more entropy in the real world out there than any model can even remotely capture.
The world is not minecraft.
My guess as to how this would work: the machine will first guess from the data alone if this is one of the categories it has already seen/inferred (share prices, google trend cat searches etc.) Then it'll output a plausible completion for the category.
That doesn't seem as if it will work well for any categories outside the training data. I would rather just use either a simple model (ARIMA or whatever) or a theoretically-informed model. But what do I know.
Foobar8568•1h ago
I always had difficulties with ML and time series, I'll need to try that out.
rockwotj•1h ago
https://moment-timeseries-foundation-model.github.io/
https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815
A friend at work used one to predict when our CEO would post in Slack, which is verry entertaining to see if correct.