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Graphs That Explain the State of AI in 2026

https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026
31•bryanrasmussen•3h ago

Comments

amelius•1h ago
Also nobody will ever have a moat, so the graph of investor stupidity is going through the roof.
aspenmartin•1h ago
Of course they will. Tokens are valuable, you can always spend a finite budget on specialized tokens or fewer and higher quality tokens, size of user base and engagement gives you a flywheel moat that is difficult for newcomers to compete with. The market is complex and easy to oversimplify.
bryanrasmussen•1h ago
My new startup tokencoin will blah blah blah exchange rate, (something AI writes here), 3. profit (more AI), benefiting all human kind and helping our users scale up their productive intelligence!
bryanlarsen•1h ago
It's hard and complex to enter any mature market. The vast majority of firms that attempt to enter a new market fail. LLM's have no more than this normal moat.
aspenmartin•24m ago
Well yes that’s my point: AI does not suddenly do away with the market.
SilverElfin•1h ago
Isn’t capital and momentum a moat? Sure Chinese models use distillation but I don’t see them training models from scratch. At least not today. But maybe as chips get cheaper and they have Chinese made ones?
swiftcoder•55m ago
> Isn’t capital and momentum a moat?

Apparently not much of one. There are, what, 5 or more companies with frontier models? And open weights models like MiniMax are snapping at their heels

SilverElfin•46m ago
I’m not technically familiar but I remember someone saying that models like MiniMax basically skip the cost of training by using distillation to basically “steal” the models from OpenAI or Anthropic, and that these companies now have various defenses against this. What happens when MiniMax has to do the full work themselves?
Nevermark•16m ago
There are many markets where open source has been nipping at heels for a long time.

Obviously product areas differ for reasons structural and happenstance. But there is definitely a pattern that occurs, where open source fast follows commercial advances, benefiting from having a clear target to develop for.

Which is of course, a great service. Even if it never unseats the commercial version, it forces the owners to reinvest more in improvements, by undermining their moats. As well as providing a much better value alternative version for many people.

bossyTeacher•31m ago
>Chinese models use distillation but I don’t see them training models from scratch

Maybe because they don't have to. If someone is doing the heavy work and they can take output of that, it's a win for them.

hydrocomplete•1h ago
I still don't understand the State of AI in 2026.
bix6•1h ago
China’s robotics lead holy cow.
alex43578•1h ago
China’s manufacturing lead in a graph
ranger_danger•53m ago
Don't they have ten times more people than the next highest country (Japan) though?
xnx•30m ago
It striking, but says nothing about AI.
krona•23m ago
The graph says "new industrial robots installed", which is a bit misleading. For example the newest BYD factories are still stuffed with German/Japanese robots.
Teever•18m ago
What's worse is that this the predictable result of a choice that America made decades ago and continues to make.

Outsourcing manufacturing capacity to China and letting domestic manufacturing skills atrophy and institutional knowledge die out was a choice that many people opposed but were ultimately helpless to stop because the people making the decisions ignored them and did it anyways for personal gain is how we got here.

You'd think that the supply chain shocks that we saw during COVID would be a wake up call that would have jolted people into action.

You'd think that Ukraine-Russia war would have been a wake up call that would have jolted people into action.

You'd think that the recent failures by the US military in Iran and the depletion of years of missile stockpiles would have been a wake up call that would have jolted people into action.

I'm at a loss to explain it. It's like the American oligarchs want to weaken America, or at least are willing to do so if it means that they have greater control over it. Maybe they don't care about manufacturing capacity because they know that America is ultimately a nuclear protected island and that even if things continue to decline they'll be safe to rule it like a king?

cloud-oak•1h ago
> Training AI models can generate enormous carbon emissions

Sure, but what I'd really like to see is a graph for how much carbon is generated serving these models globally.

HelloMcFly•39m ago
Besides the lead in robotics for China, those Grok emissions charts are the thing that most leap off the page.
xnx•29m ago
"These estimates should be interpreted with caution. In the case of Grok, they rely heavily on inferred inputs drawn from public reporting"

That chart doesn't really pass the sniff test.

xnx•32m ago
The "China leads in robotics" seems to be unaffected by AI. The China line is basically on the same trajectory since 2012. The chart does no belong in the article.
fyrn_•1m ago
Worth calling out AI sentiment among young people is not nearly so rosy: https://news.gallup.com/poll/708224/gen-adoption-steady-skep...

The electromechanical angle computer inside the B-52 bomber's star tracker

https://www.righto.com/2026/04/B-52-star-tracker-angle-computer.html
149•NelsonMinar•3h ago•46 comments

Migrating from DigitalOcean to Hetzner

https://isayeter.com/posts/digitalocean-to-hetzner-migration/
550•yusufusta•6h ago•306 comments

State of Kdenlive

https://kdenlive.org/news/2026/state-2026/
274•f_r_d•8h ago•93 comments

Show HN: MDV – a Markdown superset for docs, dashboards, and slides with data

https://github.com/drasimwagan/mdv
47•drasim•4h ago•16 comments

Young sons of U.S. marshal ride horseback from Oklahoma to New York (2018)

https://texascooppower.com/the-astonishing-ride-of-the-abernathy-boys/
20•mhb•55m ago•4 comments

Michael Rabin has died

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_O._Rabin
338•tkhattra•3d ago•70 comments

Opus 4.7 to 4.6 Inflation is ~45%

https://tokens.billchambers.me/leaderboard
315•anabranch•4h ago•342 comments

Thoughts and Feelings Around Claude Design

https://samhenri.gold/blog/20260418-claude-design/
6•cdrnsf•56m ago•0 comments

Scientists discover "cleaner ants" that groom giant ants in Arizona desert

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/04/260414075641.htm
47•t-3•3d ago•23 comments

Sumida Aquarium Posts 2026 Penguin Relationship Chart, with Drama and Breakups

https://www.sumida-aquarium.com/special/sokanzu/en/2026/
114•Lwrless•3d ago•5 comments

Graphs That Explain the State of AI in 2026

https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026
31•bryanrasmussen•3h ago•22 comments

UpCodes (YC S17) Is Hiring SDRs to Help Make Construction More Productive

https://up.codes/careers?utm_source=HN
1•Old_Thrashbarg•3h ago

Fuzix OS

https://www.fuzix.org/
50•DeathArrow•4h ago•20 comments

80386 Memory Pipeline

https://nand2mario.github.io/posts/2026/80386_memory_pipeline/
52•wicket•4d ago•10 comments

Amiga Graphics Archive

https://amiga.lychesis.net/
213•sph•13h ago•56 comments

Headless Everything for Personal AI

https://interconnected.org/home/2026/04/18/headless
11•markusw•2h ago•2 comments

Understanding the FFT Algorithm (2013)

https://jakevdp.github.io/blog/2013/08/28/understanding-the-fft/
26•peter_d_sherman•3d ago•2 comments

Show HN: Remoroo. trying to fix memory in long-running coding agents

https://www.remoroo.com
8•adhamghazali•4d ago•0 comments

Category Theory Illustrated – Orders

https://abuseofnotation.github.io/category-theory-illustrated/04_order/
202•boris_m•13h ago•56 comments

Show HN: AI Subroutines – Run automation scripts inside your browser tab

https://www.rtrvr.ai/blog/ai-subroutines-zero-token-deterministic-automation
6•arjunchint•23h ago•0 comments

It's OK to compare floating-points for equality

https://lisyarus.github.io/blog/posts/its-ok-to-compare-floating-points-for-equality.html
147•coinfused•4d ago•98 comments

Show HN: I made a calculator that works over disjoint sets of intervals

https://victorpoughon.github.io/interval-calculator/
270•fouronnes3•19h ago•47 comments

4-bit floating point FP4

https://www.johndcook.com/blog/2026/04/17/fp4/
6•chmaynard•2h ago•1 comments

Why Japan has such good railways

https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-japan-has-such-good-railways/
237•RickJWagner•7h ago•247 comments

Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
57•trocado•1h ago•51 comments

The USDA's gardening zones have shifted. (Interactive app and map) (2024)

https://apps.npr.org/plant-hardiness-garden-map/
48•nuke-web3•3h ago•5 comments

The quiet disappearance of the free-range childhood

https://bigthink.com/mind-behavior/the-quiet-disappearance-of-the-free-range-childhood/
145•sylvainkalache•8h ago•152 comments

Towards trust in Emacs

https://eshelyaron.com/posts/2026-04-15-towards-trust-in-emacs.html
166•eshelyaron•3d ago•25 comments

Rail: A self-hosting language that speaks TLS alone

https://github.com/zemo-g/rail
4•zem0g•3h ago•1 comments

A Dumb Introduction to Z3 (2025)

https://ar-ms.me/thoughts/a-gentle-introduction-to-z3/
55•y1n0•4d ago•24 comments