I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC oil.
The UAE's exit almost certainly signals they are planning on selling oil in other currencies (probably the Chinese yuan). It's also a sign of the UAE wanting out of the partnership it's enjoyed with the US and it's allies.
Whether he finds the overall effects positive or negative is a different question.
It's kind of unfair.
If they can recoup some of those losses selling outside the system in Chinese currency, (or even in US currency), I have to imagine that would provide some ameliorative relief. It won't make them whole. They've got a lot of problems right now. But I mean, at least it starts them filling back in the giant hole that everyone else dug for them.
Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen
OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.
Well the war is still ongoing, and Iran's regime is already feeling the pain of the blockade [1]. Pricing oil in Yuan because, I guess, the US is somehow not protecting the UAE doesn't make sense because China won't be there to protect them either. The US can just say, well fine you can sell your oil in Yuan. But we'll just blockade the Straight and seize oil priced in Yuan or something. Who exactly does the UAE need protection from? Iran? China's ally?
I swear I read this same story over and over again. There's always just an accusation "thing happened, here's how the US is now in a state of being screwed" and there's just never any follow-up or perhaps imagination that the US could just do something too. Hypersonic missiles? US Navy is done for, no possible counter. Iran has drones? Boom. US is done for no way they can spend Patriot missile money on $30,000 Iranian drones. Nope, nothing anyone can do at all. Iran "closes the Straight", well the US can't do anything. Now they are "embarrassed" and "slammed".
> OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz
What does this mean?
[1] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-flooded-with-s...
I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.
That is just UAE pressure to make sure they get their dollar swap deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currenc...
defecting from the cartel, a tale as old as time
On the backside I’m sure there will be lots of fun back door deals around all those interceptors and future anti drone technologies. Today though the US has been the impetus of a lot of the current issues.
In 2019 Qatar left OPEC, but nobody cared because oil is less than 10% of their national fossil fuel output, which was about 2% of OPEC's oil output.
This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dynamics.
dueltmp_yufsy•47m ago
thaumasiotes•39m ago
Where does the article say that? It says this is expected to lower the price of oil.
It also says that, because the price of oil is currently unstable, the impact will be difficult to see:
> Mazrouei said the move, in which the UAE will also leave the OPEC+ grouping, would not have a huge impact on the market because of the situation in the strait.
But it doesn't say anywhere that there's uncertainty over in which direction this moves the price of oil. The uncertainty is over what the price of oil will be.
tamimio•13m ago