Perfect.
I have been hearing about one more technical hurdle to solve before quantum algorithms become feasible since before I graduated. That was in 1996.
At the same time, moving to more secure encryption really isn't difficult. How many times have algorithms been deprecated over the past 20 or so years? It's time to do it again.
Let's just make sure that the NSA hasn't worked in any backdoors. At latest since Snowdon, anything they work on is suspect.
Hybrid encryption is as simple as running one encryption and then the other. Problem is mostly that post quantum keys are large.
Duke Nukem Forever was release fifteen years ago. Some things never happen until they suddenly do.
The wolf really does eat the boy at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.
We are still not factoring 21, let alone 35, let alone numbers with thousands of digits.
A threshold that might be beyond what the physical properties of our universe allow. It is still unclear.
But as it happens in real life politics too, people who were just proven they were wrong continued to blame the boy.
The story is told from the point of view of a villagers trying to hide their culpability by blaming the victim.
I thought it was a typo at first but wikipedia explained:
The Sword of Damocles is an ancient Greek moral anecdote, an allusion to the imminent and ever-present peril faced by those in positions of power.
Shor's algorithm is a quantum algorithm for finding the prime factors of an integer
> if quantum computers start breaking cryptography a few years from now, don’t you dare come to this blog and tell me that I failed to warn you. This post is your warning.
What is the biggest number factored using Shor's algorithm?
Last time I looked it was very unimpressive.
Edit: It's gotten worse. 21 from 2012. "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" say the factorization of 35 in 2019 actually failed.
> Sometimes these days, I'll survey the spectacular recent progress in fault-tolerance, 2-qubit gate fidelities, programmable hundred-qubit systems, etc., only to be answered with a sneer: "What's the biggest number that Shor's algorithm has factored? Still 15 after all these years? Haha, apparently the emperor has no clothes!" I've commented that this is sort of like dismissing the Manhattan Project as hopelessly stalled in 1944, on the ground that so far it hasn't produced even a tiny nuclear explosion... If there's a reason why you think it can't work beyond a certain scale, say so. But don't fixate on one external benchmark and ignore everything happening under the hood, if the experts are telling you that under the hood is where all the action now is, and your preferred benchmark is only relevant later.
https://waymo.com/research/safety-performance-of-the-waymo-r...
> Waymo’s rider-only ride-hailing operations reached its first one million rider-only miles on January 21, 2023
I'm not saying it can't work. Just that in 14 years no one has managed to factor a larger number than 21. Seemingly focus has shifted to other factoring algorithms that don't have performance improvements over conventional computing.
I'm not the one implying that Shor's algorithm will breaking encryption in "a few years from now".
Then again, there are enough examples of failed projects. Why should this be comparable to the Manhattan project? In 1944, it was only two years underway, whereas Shor's algorithm is over 30. Tons of articles have been published on quantum computing, while the A bomb was kept as secret as possible, making learning from other countries, sometimes even from colleagues, impossible. In 1942, an atomic explosion was still hypothetical, whereas quantum computing had its first commercial service 7 years ago. Etc.
So, while in principle lack of progress doesn't guarantee failure, a comparison to the Manhattan Project is stylistic bullshit.
The worry about "harvest and decrypt" in a 5 year timeframe is primarily from a nation state/natsec perspective.
If you are being targeted by a nation state as a line level engineer, harvest and decrypt is the least of your worries.
SSH keys, on the other hand, are authentication and would require an online Quantum Computer to break, so we have more time. Authentication is also (usually) more complicated, so there are still disagreements on what to do with the Web PKI for example. To give you a concrete target, Google, Microsoft, and CloudFlare have self-imposed deadlines of 2029 for their PQC migrations.
In practice, PQC migration means updating your software, bugging your vendors to ensure they have this on their roadmaps, and making sure your own code is flexible in respect to algorithms used.
On a separate note, I've definetly been hearing worried murmurs about "harvest and decrypt" attacks along with post-quantum TEE slightly before the GCP paper, and I definetly think it appears a couple nation states are on track for a "quantum leap" by 2030 given the rate at which I've been hearing it within my network.
Quantum AI harvesting antimatter
On the face of it, even relatively "point-target" goals of this kind could take many decades if at all; GaN for blue diodes come in mind as an example of a field that was stuck for a generation -- until it wasn't.
KaiserPro•1h ago
So we know that quantum computers hold a real risk of being able to break a lot of encryption. We also know that changing cyphers is hard (because reasons)
But what I don't see is what I can practically do now, as either someone who is a CTO/Big Cheese™ or a lowly engineer?
fastball•1h ago
[1] https://blog.cloudflare.com/post-quantum-roadmap/
rolandog•1h ago
MattPalmer1086•1h ago
weddpros•52m ago
BoppreH•50m ago
Migrate! The major TLS and OpenSSH applications already support PQC, for example.
1. Make sure you have the required dependencies (e.g., openssl 3.5+ is when a lot of PQC algorithms got support).
2. Make sure the client/server software is up to date (this might be all that's needed, e.g., OpenSSH 10.0+ enables PQC in-transit encryption by default, and so does Chrome 131+).
3. Enable PQC support in the configuration (e.g., "ssl_ecdh_curve X25519MLKEM768;" in Nginx).
If you are the developer of anything that's explicitly using RSA or ECC (or god forbid Diffie-Hellman), you can also migrate your own software, or at least make the algorithm selectable at initialization time instead of hardcoded. If you have vendors, ask them for their PQC migration roadmaps.
Note that with encrypted data you want to protect yourself against attackers that are capturing data today and waiting to break it in the future (Harvest-Now, Decrypt-Later). So migrating encryption is more urgent than migrating authentication.
beloch•40m ago
If you're transmitting credit card info that changes every few years and can be changed on demand, that's no big deal. If you're transmitting information that will remain sensitive for decades, the time to look for methods that would stand up to quantum computing was years ago. However, today is still better than years in the future. At the very least, you can choose what to send in encrypted form over public networks and what not to send.
There are people who will scoff at the notion of quantum computing ever developing to the point where it can make an impact. There are people who scoff at the effort and expense of QKD or good ol' spooks carrying briefcases full of one-time PADs. You might be right to listen to them. You might not be. It's a risk. Whether you, or your organization, can tolerate that risk is entirely dependent on you and yours.