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The Whole Anthropic Kerfuffle

https://twitter.com/josevalim/status/2054887621336174799
55•tosh•1h ago

Comments

jameskilton•1h ago
> At Anthropic, we build AI to serve humanity’s long-term well-being.

If Anthropic actually cared about humans, they would have the best customer support (staffed by humans, for humans) and communications team (again, staffed by humans, for humans).

As both of these are actually on par with Silicon Valley standards (between medicore and atrociously bad), Anthropic cannot and should not be trusted with anything to do with AI, because whatever they do will not benefit humanity.

alach11•59m ago
> If Anthropic actually cared about humans, they would have the best customer support (staffed by humans, for humans)

I know Anthropic support is slow from firsthand experience, but it has to be pretty difficult to scale support 10-80x per year. And even more so when you have a long-tail of very low revenue usage in the form of $20/month subscriptions.

tomashubelbauer•51m ago
There is basically no support to speak of. Scaling a zero is not hard. You can be paying 200 USD a month with barely any chance of ever hearing back. Your best chance of getting support from Anthropic is the same as with any other big tech company: have a Twitter following or know someone who works there.
ausbah•37m ago
their world changing agents surely make this a non problem?
adampunk•59m ago
How would you staff a support line for a product with a billion users?
Wowfunhappy•55m ago
I mean, the simplistic answer is that if a billion people are paying you, you should be able to hire a proportional number of support staff, because you're getting additional revenue from each customer.

I can imagine scaling may be difficult, but that should be a temporary problem.

tonyedgecombe•55m ago
Does Anthropic have a billion users?
poszlem•54m ago
Imagine if they had access to a good AI! They don't even have a bot support.
troyvit•53m ago
That's just it. If they were prioritizing humans they'd have a product with a measely million users, charge more, and offer great support. Their game isn't a good product though, their game is scale because they think that's the only way to win, and winning is the only way to survive.
brookst•46m ago
Wait, how would limiting a great tool to 0.1% of the TAM demonstrate caring for humans?

Are you picturing them running a lottery for who’s allowed to use it, or an auction?

And with the loss of scale economies, it would have to be much more expensive.

So you end up charging, what, $10,000/month and only making it available to the very wealthy?

I don’t see how this game plan is better for humans. And I’m honestly not being snarky. Have you thought through how your proposed limits would work? Am I missing something?

mock-possum•22m ago
Love how you’re literally saying “instead of serving humanity they should serve the wealthiest 0.1%”

Very humanitarian

0gs•53m ago
it's hard, but not THAT hard, to find a few dozen people who can deal with large volumes of support tickets every day. so for a company like anthropic, you'd use a customized claude to triage and then those few dozen people spend all day actually caring about solving users' problems. a contract with fin fka intercom (lol) to offload this is a step in the wrong direction imo, but then nobody pays for support so it's hard to turn it into a revenue stream.
adampunk•22m ago
I'm sorry but a few dozen people actually caring about the problems of a billion users is a fart in a windstorm. You might as well hire a half-dozen to care, or none, for all the work you'll do. You'd need a dozen people just to design a scheduler for handling tickets only to watch that catch fire too.

I don't get it. None of the hyperscalers have human support teams at scale because it's obviously infeasible. Why, just because it would be nice, do we take leave of the requirement that something actually be possible before demanding it.

sfifs•4m ago
Not infeasible, just allows lower net margins.
skinfaxi•42m ago
How much budget have they allocated to support?
maplethorpe•41m ago
Don't have a billion users if you can't offer them support?
alehlopeh•32m ago
Like, what? Since when can you control how many people want your product?
cycomanic•13m ago
It's funny how silicon valley bros always talk like making real world things is essentially impossible. I mean walmart or aldi are serving > 200 million customers a week, how do they manage that I can tell you that's much harder than customer support for an online product.

As a side note, how do you make up that billion user number? Claude has 10 million users.

sfifs•6m ago
With lower margins of course. Walmart, Indian Railways, major airlines etc all support massive user bases comparable to or bigger than the paid tiers of these apps. But of course the cult of Big Shareholder value creation means the CEO that does this, especially in the US will be fired.
ungovernableCat•49m ago
Extremely cynical take, but they're probably being honest. They wanna serve humanity. But maybe they only consider a small part of the population to be relevant humans.
Applejinx•32m ago
To whom?
qaz_plm•1h ago
https://xcancel.com/josevalim/status/2054887621336174799
siliconpotato•1h ago
Find it surprising that there are people still under the delusion that they have an audience of humans on twitter worth speaking to
skrebbel•1h ago
You think a bot cross-posted this tweet to HN?
Imustaskforhelp•46m ago
Jose valim is the creator of elixir for reference. He definitely includes a fan following within the elixir community. So its not much about twitter as much as the guy.

I mean even on top of my head, I still remember when jose commented back to me and it was a highlight for a few days as I told my friend about it: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44234633

> I have a fun anecdote. About 5-6 years ago, Elixir completely disappeared from the top 100 after spending some time in the top 50. People reached out to me and then I reached out to TIOBE to understand why and the reason given was "bad presence on Amazon".

> After further investigation, the root cause seemed to be that we finally had enough published Elixir books. At the time, if you searched for "xyz programming" on Amazon and only found a few results, Amazon would pad those results with non-relevant entries. However, because Elixir reached about 20-30 books, we were no longer padded, so we suddenly got worse rankings than every other language with only a handful of books. This happened on every Amazon domain they searched on, so it compounded and effectively kicked us out of the top 100 altogether. This all happened at a time Elixir language activity had already reached top 25 on GitHub PRs/stars.

So although my comment has gotten a little offtopic but people have literally written books about elixir (the language he created).

My point is, people like to listen to jose and he's a really chill guy from what I know of him and elixir feels like a great language :-D

DiabloD3•42m ago
That doesn't actually answer the original poster's commentary, however.

Humans have left Twitter, its all propaganda and spam bots just spamming and propagandizing each other.

José Valim needs to move to either Bluesky (if he prefers to stay within the corporate ecosystem) or Mastodon (which is where the entirety of the FOSS universe went).

skinfaxi•40m ago
Humans are still on twitter. Maybe the people José Valim wants to reach are on twitter and not those other platforms.
Imustaskforhelp•27m ago
> José Valim needs to move to either Bluesky (if he prefers to stay within the corporate ecosystem) or Mastodon (which is where the entirety of the FOSS universe went).

Personally, I am not particularly on X so much as much as I am on bluesky, and I would really appreciate Jose joining bluesky.

But at the end of the day, I might take critique with the idea of needs

Nobody needs to do anything. It's his freedom and I just searched and Jose is literally on bsky: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:6h6jhmuogujxac24oilywd45 but his account is inactive since last message of 11 months ago.

So I think that he's open to new platforms and old habits die hard perhaps. I don't wish to defend X because I don't particularly like it, but being honest, it is what it is.

> Humans have left Twitter, its all propaganda and spam bots just spamming and propagandizing each other.

Can't say about all but I can indeed confirm that when I tried to make a new account and post something, I was literally recommended tweets basically saying "like this tweet/follow us to get 1000 followers or buy these followers" when I had posted a video for an product.

davidw•54m ago
LLMs represent a big shift of power towards capital until such time as local ones are 'good enough'.
dormento•44m ago
That's true. But keep in mind capital can be trivially used to influence policy so that local ones are eventually disallowed.
XorNot•27m ago
When has that ever happened though?

LLMs are software there's no plausible way to stop them running locally.

AlexandrB•21m ago
California is trying to ban the sale of 3d printers that don't detect and block "gun parts" from being printed[1]. All Anthropic and friends need is some kind of safety rationale and we won't be able to buy computers that can run local models.

The plausible way to do this is to force all software through some kind of signing process. This would be trivial for Apple to pull off and not much harder for Microsoft. On the Linux side, I expect the systemd folks would be happy to add some kind of signature checking to "head off the inevitable".

[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/3Dprinting/comments/1rek7ky/new_cal...

adamors•42m ago
Yes, this is the main point, employees will have less and less leverage (I'm even seeing AI doing interviews now, good luck). Soon we'll be explaining to an AI why we aren't as productive as two weeks ago.
jnovek•32m ago
AI interviews are a hard “no”. If I’m going to invest my time in an interview, the company must as well.
parliament32•44m ago
It really is the doordash/uber playbook all over again eh? Sell at a massive loss, gain userbase, then gradually boil the frog by adding fees, removing features, and increasing prices. Except instead of doing this a few years down the line, they're speedrunning the tighten-the-noose phase.

Unfortunately the competition is nipping at their heels so there's a good chance this blows up in their faces.

intrasight•36m ago
There is competition. And there is no moat nor network effect. I don't think it'll blow up in their faces if they provide a product and service that people value which demonstratively they have. But it may not be so lucrative to them or their shareholders.
Aboutplants•32m ago
“Unfortunately”?

Uh, that’s a good thing

ealready_value•32m ago
As far as I can tell, it seemed very clear that was the playbook for about a year now. Its been regularly assumed they're selling plans as a major loss-leader because people can "spend" thousands of dollars a months on a plan if they were charged at API rates. I think there's good evidence that even the API rates are sold at a loss.

I think its assumed in the LLM model business that the models themselves are not a good moat, the next model by another company is just as likely to be as good as the current model. So companies like Anthropic have to tighten the noose slowly to start recovering their costs. This appears to be one of those steps.

infecto•28m ago
The simpler explanation is probably some mix of marketing and also an expected use from people paying for a plan. The money to be made is not from plans ever. It’s in everyone’s best interest for these companies to accurately oversubscribe plans. Enterprise is where the money is to be made and I don’t feel that pricing has changed much on that end.
ealready_value•19m ago
I had never thought of it that way, but it seems very likely that Enterprise oversubscribing is in the mix. Which does tie in nicely with this change; if a few devs are using their max plan to programmatically run parts of the business that could break the oversubscribes assumption.
infecto•17m ago
There are no Enterprise plans though only on demand usage which at worst is charged retail token costs and with volume negotiated token rates.
infecto•30m ago
I think people are being too generous with these comparisons. Not defending Anthropic but at the same time they are releasing new features and adjusting cost at pretty record speed for a new industry. Uber/doordash were subsidizing cost for what felt like a decade. Anthropic and related companies are adjusting price within months.

To me the bigger takeaway is that these business are seeing massive volume in use and figuring out how to price the products accordingly.

hdndjsbbs•25m ago
They have to speedrun boiling the frog because the capital expenditure is insane. Remains to be seen just how fast you can boil a frog before the frog notices
infecto•15m ago
Disagree. Most businesses of size are going to enterprise agreements which are all on demand rates. Those rates have not been changing other than the underlying cost to the model API rates fluctuating. You could make argument they are secretly using that has the price lever.

With volume enterprises can already negotiate lower token rates. I don’t see a boiling the frog situation.

afavour•30m ago
I still think/hope/pray the future will be on-device models that don't need constant retraining. That will blow up the existing business model but I think a company could still make good money with a "majority local/remote for the really challenging stuff" model.

The problem is that today's AI companies have taken on so much funding that a reasonable, not crazy profit ratio isn't enough for them.

doikor•29m ago
It was very clear from the beginning purely from how much it costs to train and run the inference.

Someone has to pay the 7 trillion (the current projections for the AI datacenter build up)

AlexandrB•26m ago
How do we tell the doordash/uber playbook from the moviepass playbook? Because the latter would be awful to build your business on.
parliament32•16m ago
Moviepass (afaik) was an attempt at the exact same playbook, it just failed.

Anthropic will also fail when the competition is.. near-equivalent-capability DeepSeek/Qwen/Llama on a $1k GPU with a break-even of 5 months of subscription costs. The value is simply not there for what they would need to charge to become profitable.

tommek4077•37m ago
If you would be honest, everyone understood that this is a work around that us not there to last.
jadar•33m ago
What's the subtext here? I don't live under a rock, but there have been so many Anthropic kerfuffles that I have lost track.
schnitzelstoat•29m ago
Using -p (non-interactive mode) now uses API pricing, not subscription (so it's now more expensive). But if you have a subscription you get some free credits for it.
walthamstow•28m ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48125552
ChrisArchitect•14m ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48126438
frangonf•29m ago
> Impacting devrel is just collateral damage, which is on par for a company which believes coding is going away any time now.

This makes sense.

ochronus•27m ago
Yeah, claude code is mostly unusable at this point. It's been in a constant decline for a good 1-2 months. It's more like a scam now.
quietsegfault•8m ago
What are the biggest problems you've seen? Is it mostly related to limits for the subscription plans?

Within my circles (mostly big enterprises), I see more and more of my friends using Claude, and spending money on it, so they must be getting some sort of value out of it. For my uses, I've also been successful with Claude Code, though someone else is paying for my tokens.

nickdothutton•19m ago
I really wish Anthropic would consult some monetization experts. Their recent strategy has been all over the place and they are burning early goodwill.
ChrisArchitect•8m ago
Discussions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48126438

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