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Mistral's CEO: Europe has 2 years to stop becoming America's AI 'vassal state'

https://www.businessinsider.com/mistral-ceo-warns-europe-2-years-avoid-us-ai-dependence-2026-5
72•LelouBil•2h ago

Comments

DivingForGold•1h ago
Typical EU response. Seems Europeans have stumbled to 2nd or 3rd place in the A I race, if even that.
imperfectibex•1h ago
2nd would be China imho...so 3rd at best
pesacharia•51m ago
If you include the UK and Switzerland in Europe then Europe is clearly doing ahead of China.

The 1st and 3rd AI nations in Europe are not in the EU though, so if you restrict it to just the EU it falls well behind china

dumbmrblah•48m ago
What does UK and Switzerland have that even remotely compares to what China has in terms of AI?
jvwww•43m ago
London has incredible AI talent but yeah, unfortunately most of them work on American tech. In another life Deepmind would not be owned by Google but alas.
throwa356262•42m ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_DeepMind
xyzsparetimexyz•36m ago
Thats American
barbacoa•1h ago
America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates.
amunozo•1h ago
Always the same ridiculous statement.
poszlem•1h ago
I, too, cannot wait when it finally stops being true, so people can stop saying it.
janice1999•51m ago
Americans are just as regulated and with even more egregious regulatory capture (see the American broadband/mobile provider cartel). At least Europeans get a little consumer protection.
polski-g•49m ago
You need a doctor's note to buy contact lens solution in Holland.

The level of regulation isn't close.

nchagnet•41m ago
That's just... false? You just go to Etos or Kruidvat for that.
sottol•31m ago
Otoh, you can buy contact lenses OTC in other European countries... not saying Europe isn't over-regulated (try legally building a bike-trail on your own forest-land in Germany!! ...insanity) but it's a bad example.
amunozo•13m ago
You cannot build mixed used buildings in most of due to ridiculous housing zoning, can you?
bdangubic•48m ago
america regulates to ensure companies (as few as humanly possible) profit while europe regulates to protect the consumers. the core difference, yea! and americans seemed to be always shitting on europe completely oblivious of what is being done to them, for decades now
pjmlp•37m ago
I rather have European regulations to US wild west anything goes, and who cannot keep up isn't worth keeping around mentality.
rvz•30m ago
Because it is ridiculously true.
sajithdilshan•12m ago
truth hurts right?
xyzsparetimexyz•34m ago
If anything the main simplification here is that China is doing a significant amount of innovation too. Otherwise yeah. Europe's main purpose is to serve as a continent-wide historical Disneyland for rich American and Chinese tourists. And maybe we'd be better off admitting that rather than trying to pretend to have any kind of industrial or startup ecosystem.
amunozo•11m ago
A bit dramatic isn't it? I'd rather live in this Disneyland than in a suburban shit hole surrounded by parking lots and obese people.
tensor•31m ago
Immigrants innovate, US declines and isolates, and Europe is waking up to the new world order where the west needs new leadership.
amazingamazing•1h ago
Deepseek is open source. Whats stopping them from distilling it and releasing their own model today? Where is the reliance on America? Gpus?
mvanbaak•1h ago
the problem is not the model, but the infrastructure needed to run the model. so yeah, gpus, cpus, network, etc etc
polski-g•50m ago
Power is 2-3x as expensive in Europe than American. They're toast.
adev_•37m ago
> Power is 2-3x as expensive in Europe than American. They're toast.

Europe is not Germany.

Electricity price is 2-3x times more expensive in Germany.

Electricity price for electricity intensive professional is around 12-14cts/kWh in France and can be reduce under 10cts/kWh for big consummers.

Which is competitive with the cost in several US states (it is still higher than Texas but not 3x).

Nordic countries should be able to align on that too.

himata4113•37m ago
it's actually about the same in most countries, solar and wind is coming down in price every single day. germany is an outlier at this point.
panflute•59m ago
Deepseek is open in the sense that you can run V3 or V4 it is not open in the sense that you have all the tools a Chinese company has to make the V5 that will be needed to keep up with the US.
mentalgear•42m ago
Deepseek is open-weight, not open-source afaik.
xyzsparetimexyz•38m ago
Potato potatoe
pjmlp•39m ago
CPUs, GPUs, operating systems, programming languages toolchains.

Even if you consider open source, the majority of contributions are from US companies.

There are some companies contributing to GCC and clang from UK, GraalVM and V8 are partially in European sites but from American companies nonetheless.

There is OCaml in France, more no idea.

SilverElfin•1h ago
Unfortunately Europe is already far behind. OpenAI started over a decade ago. How can Europe catch up? Maybe if progress slows down and they have time to at least get into the same position as Chinese models, but they also need to invest in it. But with what money? And why would talented people stay there instead of going to America where they can get a fairer share of their hard earned money?

There’s so much more to say, but it’s a big mess. And European voters and politicians are far too slow and unfocused to change their system drastically. By the time those incentives and problems are fixed it will be too late to be anything but a vassal state.

polotics•59m ago
The most telling part is when he explains that in order to grant stock options he had to navigate each and every single different legal setup for each one of the member states.

I felt for a while the "European Union" has been turned into a foil for nations that had absolutely no intention to really integrate. Unless actual integration, simple one rule for all on the continent, happens within the next handfuls of months, then this ship's going down and I organize to exit stage left, Trump ain't Xi.

Etheryte•47m ago
I don't think this argument holds much water. Each state in the US has their own legislation and taxes and it works just fine.
trinix912•30m ago
Each EU member state has their own stock market and you often can't trade the stocks from one country through the stock exchange in another. This means that if you want to offer EU-wide stock options, you either have to convince everyone to fly to your country and register at your country's stock exchange (which few will bother doing), or go through the process of filing and managing stocks of your company at 20+ different stock exchanges.

It's one of the things that have been recently brought up again in the EU parliament, but getting everyone to agree on a common stock market is not going to be easy.

orochimaaru•1h ago
>>>> In a world where you import all your digital services from the United States, you have no leverage over the United States

It's a bit deeper than that. If AI becomes as ubiquitous as imagined, which it seems it will, it's not just a "digital service". It's a primary utility - like electricity, water or highways. Because without it your productivity will plummet. We aren't there yet - we will be there in a few years.

bruki•59m ago
Comparing AI to resources it highly depends on is a bit far fetched.
Insanity•48m ago
Only somewhat. I’d argue the internet could be considered a basic utility to function in the modern world, yet that just builds on electricity.
thfuran•43m ago
Those are all mutually dependent. Turn off the electric grid and close all the roads and see how long municipal water supplies last.
Kye•42m ago
What resource isn't interdependent with at least one other resource?
delusional•28m ago
> Because without it your productivity will plummet.

Why would it plummet?

Surely we could just keep doing what we've been doing for the past 50 years. That doesn't go away because AI. The promise of AI is a productivity increase after implementing it. It doesn't change the productivity of not implementing it.

Oras•58m ago
> and a challenger to OpenAI

Big claim. Apart from Mistral OCR, I didn't find any of their models remotely useful.

They do have a chance to become sole AI provider for France as French are trying to break from US tech, not because their product is useful.

Sounds like a cry to raise more money, which is inline with their initial pitch [0]

[0] https://sifted.eu/articles/pitch-deck-mistral

jstummbillig•42m ago
It seems fairly plausible that they will become useful. I would not consider coding requiring vastly better AI models than the best we have today. The more interesting question is what advantages excess intelligence provides in the future more generally (warfare, system management, etc)
Oras•40m ago
> fairly plausible

Based on what? is that a feeling or based on evidence?

jstummbillig•21m ago
The trajectory all models are taking, while software development requirements stay fairly level (at least I don't know why they would). We will still mostly want to produce reliable, boring software, not more complicated software.

I don't see why Mistral would stop getting better. It will, just more slowly. Eventually it will be good enough.

JohnBrookz•55m ago
Only mistral could re rerelease deepseeks model and do a worse job.
boomskats•48m ago
If we could just do something, anything about being so aggressively colonised by the Palantirs and the neoliberal think tanks and the Christian far-right money, and ISDS-littered trade agreements, then the rest would just follow. Sadly though, I don't think we stand a chance.
Insanity•44m ago
As a European I want mistral and EU to do well. But at the same time, I wouldn’t actually give up my well paid engineering job outside of EU to even entertain working for them in EU. Too low salaries and too high taxes.
scirob•41m ago
I wonder why googles biggest European office is in the low tax high salary country of Switzerland
basicoperation•34m ago
Zurich is third behind Dublin (definitely for tax reasons) and London.
hobofan•33m ago
That's the biggest engineering office, but not the biggest overall European Google office, right? That would be in low tax low salary Ireland.
jstummbillig•29m ago
How do you divorce being a European principally from being willing to pay taxes? What part of being uniquely European do you value that does not fundamentally require taxes?
trinix912•20m ago
So just because someone is born in Europe they should automatically believe that the taxation system is flawless and salaries sufficient?
jstummbillig•14m ago
No
teekert•10m ago
No but to come to Europa, you get less differences in wealth (essentially) universal healthcare at low/reasonable cost (ie, I can get cancer and not feel it financially), and a lot of state support when you're out of a job. Etc. Thos things cost tax money.
stavros•18m ago
I have to say, I visited Zurich once, and everything was clean, organized, civilized, and pretty. Friends told me taxes are high but you get great education, great healthcare, decent disposable income, and good transportation. If you get laid off, the state continues paying your previous salary for one (two?) years.

If everything is taken care of me from taxes, why do I need money? Take it all.

teekert•9m ago
FWIW Zurich feels like that to me too, and I'm from the Netherlands :)
amunozo•9m ago
Well, Zurich is everything but representative of Europe. Switzerland has much lower taxes and higher salaries than the rest of Europe.
rdm_blackhole•18m ago
Not OP but to respond to your question, like everything, there is a scale to this question. Would you give to the state 30% of your income to pay for public services? Most people would say yes.

What about 40%? 50%?

Most people agree that taxes need to be paid for the common good of society. However, many people disagree about the correct amount and increasingly about the usage of said taxes.

That is the real problem in my opinion.

radicalbyte•6m ago
The problem with taxes in Europe are that the ultra-wealthy don't pay them. That burden is particularly focused on those who are high wage earners. If I look at my own country, as a high earner I'm paying close to a 50% effective tax rate (a little less with mortgage interest deductions). However the billionaire families who own the beer brewers, shipping companies and agraculture companies are paying well under 0.5% effective. They pay less than in the US. Due to this reason we're one of the most infamous tax dodge countries in Europe, apparently the Swedish and German billionaires have tax residency to avoid paying it.
tlogan•16m ago
But working in UE gives you much stronger job protection.

So, in a way, you get what you pay for.

giacomoforte•12m ago
I would become a patriotic European too, but only after our leaders at the national and EU level stop being transatlanticist sellouts... which won't happen any time soon.
mrtksn•43m ago
The only thing that can “save Europe” is US embargo, otherwise doesn’t make sense to do replication of the US effort whatsoever. In US the AI is a private effort, in Europe there are no businesses that are interested in investing such large amounts of money when they can benefit from US made AI. In China they don’t have this option to use the US offerings so they must invest, be it the government or the business that will be protected from US competition.

Unless Trump invades Greenland and EU makes sure that US tech is off limits for at least a decade to come, a revolution happens in UK or France goes full nationalistic there won’t be “European tech” beyond niche. Currently the “American AI” isn’t American, it’s bunch of Europeans, Canadians and Asians building the AI that will serve US and EU customers under the supervision of Americans using European, Arab, Russian and American money.

It is incorporated in America but as Musk demonstrates, if you increase taxes or allow certain sexual relationships that CEO’s don’t approve they can just take it somewhere else.

tjwebbnorfolk•37m ago
The hilarious irony is that Trump has been yelling at Europe since ~2017 to stop being so reliant on the US for everything, to pay more for its own defense, stop regulating and start innovating, etc.

Basically everything that's in the Draghi report.

Meanwhile, EU bureaucrats' heads appear to remain firmly buried in the sand.

mrtksn•31m ago
EU isn’t governed by the china communist party, the only way to stop being reliant to US is to stop trade with US and the cost of it will be enormous. Trump needs to create such a high political risk that the economic damage be justified.

He definitely did a lot to help, but the damage needs to be irreparable so that business can feel safe from US competition. He needs to do do something so outrageous that Germany would not mind losing the US car market for example.

jmyeet•35m ago
The China example was such a massive blunder (from the perspective of US soft power). Like you say, it created a captive market for Chinese chips where Chinese companies might've otherwise bought foreign chips. That's inbuilt demand. But China also has something Europe doesn't and that's central planning. China has realized that chipmaking and AI are issues of national security. Europe just doesn't have that level of governance and forethought. Within 5 years China will be producing their own EUV chips despite the ASML export ban.

And you know who realizes all this? The Nvidia CEO [1][2].

There is now a 70 year history of Europe being designed as and becoming comfortable with being a US vassal state, from the end of WW2 to Bretton-Woods, the Marshall Plan and NATO.

I don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany as changing any of this. If anything, it'll just fracture any semblance of European unity. It'll be the enemy within as those forces will be most aligned with the US.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJmHfmrRMUE

[2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrbq66XqtCo

mrtksn•18m ago
> don't see fascist takeovers in the UK, France or Germany

The horseshoe theory is in full swing lately, in UK after right wing libertarian rule came the left wing labour and now it’s once again the right wingers. They again won’t solve anything and more swings will happen until someone realizes that it’s the US trade that isn’t working.

The rest of Europe is similar, they just happen to have more damping as most have fractured parliaments with no one having majority but the general direction change is happening regardless. People aren’t going to be like “tough luck, we choose poorly to rely on US and we will be permanent underclass from now on”.

InTheArena•43m ago
Big tech bro CEO Stokes nationalistic fears to justify corporate handouts for his company. Europe is more like America every day.
DiabloD3•42m ago
This is mostly a performance by the Mistral CEO.

He is trying to justify the continued existence of the AI bubble in his country, claiming that, somehow, us Americans have figured it out and made LLMs work. We haven't, nobody has.

LLMs don't work. They cannot think. They do not understand what you are asking them to do. They statistically reproduce text written by other people, and they cannot do so well. They are not good assistants, they are not good code authors, they are not good debuggers, they cannot help you find security exploits... they can only mimic what it'd look like if they did, as long as you don't squint too hard.

All of the LLM startups are very quickly running out of runway, and will most likely never become profitable. OpenAI may collapse next year. Anthropic may collapse in 2028. Microsoft/Github seems to be pulling back on their Copilot bullshit and may just end up killing it entirely.

Arthur Mensch is just trying to keep Mistral alive a little bit longer until the bubble pops, and is saying whatever whatever it takes to get a little more blood from that stone.

oytis•39m ago
> they cannot help you find security exploits.

What is the reason for the recent deluge of CVEs with working exploits to open source projects then?

cat_plus_plus•36m ago
You just need to work on your agent design and prompting skills, modern LLMs are crazy good at all the things you listed with the right context and tools.
sajithdilshan•15m ago
Tales of YOUR incompetence do not interest us.
xyzsparetimexyz•40m ago
Europe is never going to have sovereignty in a lot of areas. A vassal of the US or a vassal of China. Pick your poison.
awestroke•39m ago
If it ever comes to that, we'll pick China, thanks
ejoso•26m ago
So you’d enjoy being like the free and happy people of Tibet then, eh?
awestroke•8m ago
Lesser of two evils etc. How about south america as a counterexample?
bryanrasmussen•36m ago
right it totally makes sense because it's the third biggest economy in the world, it has to be a vassal of number one or number two, because there has been a situation where number three in anything tries to move up, if you're third in line you must submit.
radicalbyte•25m ago
A vassal of California. I know we like to say that tech is the US but that's not true. It is almost completely focused around a small part of California. Take that out and Europe and the US are comparable with respect to software tech at least.

Europe has a golden chance with the current mass outflux of talent from the US and I really hope we grasp it. I just don't see my country (NL) doing that as our political class are nearly as stupid as the Americans.

FergusArgyll•11m ago
If California would burn down, the scene would recreate itself somewhere else (ny, austin, boston).
cat_plus_plus•38m ago
China's AI vassal state. But so far in a good way because it's open source and everyone benefits.
moomoo11•38m ago
i always forget EU exists when it comes to tech

they’re so hostile to it (lawfare) and have seemingly little innovation comparatively

why is that?

ralph84•35m ago
Every time you have to dismiss a cookie banner, thank a European.
trinix912•33m ago
Because most people in the EU outside of the tech field care more about the welfare policies and overall quality of life than some ambitious tech projects of a few random private companies, from which they're unlikely to directly benefit from, especially when those are located outside of their member state.
vasco•37m ago
Becoming? We all live under the American empire. Pretty much every international institution is dominated by American money, most high level positions in such institutions are cleared by Americans before they are appointed, they have military bases in almost every other western country and a law that allows them to invade the Netherlands if the international court ever tries someone they don't want to be tried. What illusion are we under?

It's ok to think it's a benevolent dictator type situation but it is what it is. In fact the usual reply to this isn't a rebuttal but rather "what alternative is better?" to which I have no answer.

TrackerFF•30m ago
I do believe that due to security concerns, European countries at the state level will try to detach themselves from relying on US infrastructure. Not only AI, but all critical things.

For decades we've lived under the pretense that US is our main ally, and that realistically we'd never end up in a position where:

A) They'd become enemies.

B) They could just turn off access.

One silver lining with Trump becoming president, is that he forced European leaders to revisit those assumptions. Sure, Trump will not be around forever, but we know what types of leaders the US public is able to vote to the top, and what they are capable of doing.

sajithdilshan•16m ago
The important key word in your comment is "will try", they will try, but fail miserably. They have built a wall of bureaucracy to keep them prisoners and even trying to change an infrastructure provider would need cutting 100 red tapes and 5 years. Not to mention, even if they want to switch, that's huge capital investment and that's not something EU can afford given the social economical state they are at the moment.
kingleopold•25m ago
they already lost it but I guess it takes time to acknowledge it? Europe does not have capital or structures to catch up, it can change in 2 years
trilogic•21m ago
A quick search of revenue of google and facebook (in billions) 2015-2020. Is that so hard to understand that there is an entire economy wrapped around AI/IOT? Didn´t Europe learn anything from historic data? Google Facebook 2015 $67.80B* $17.93B Google segment revenue (Alphabet restructuring). Total Alphabet: $74.98B 2016 $81.30B $25.76B Google segment revenue. Total Alphabet: $89.55B 2017 $100.10B $40.65B Google segment revenue. Total Alphabet: $109.46B 2018 $128.90B $55.84B Google segment revenue. Total Alphabet: $136.82B 2019 $143.90B $70.70B Google segment revenue. Total Alphabet: $161.86B 2020 $152.70B $85.97B *Google segment revenue. Total Alphabet: $182.53B

Europe gdp for same years (in trillions): 2015 16.89 2016 16.88 2017 17.88 2018 18.89 2019 19.31 2020 17.42 Now by simple math a healthy gdp growth is around 4%, so just by creating and/or backing up 2 similar companies (in Europe) will revenue ~2.5% of the total entire European gdp. What is going on, are the European Leaders sabotaging our economy on purpose?

raincole•5m ago
In other words, "EU governments please give me money."

Not saying that American companies are better in this regard, but if we interpret each CEO's words with the same scrutiny as how we view Elon or Altman's words... that's pretty much it.

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