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A reality check on the AI jobs hysteria

https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/05/26/1137855/a-reality-check-on-the-ai-jobs-hysteria/
29•joozio•2h ago

Comments

jqpabc123•1h ago
Unemployment rates for recent college graduates stand at around 5.6%, well above the level for all workers.

I think we just found the first evidence of AI's expected influence on the labor market.

citrin_ru•45m ago
It's hard to separate impact of workers being replaced by AI from an impact of a recession (or stagnation). It's not obvious how AI impacts employees with various experience: on one hand a senior is better at spotting AI hallucination one other hand a junior using AI can do much more than a junior was able to do a couple years ago for a lower (if adjusted for inflation) than a couple years ago salary.
apwheele•40m ago
A recent paper believes work from home reducing entry level gigs fits the data better, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6787638.

I hate it, but the X thread is the easiest review piece I can find, https://x.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369.

cshimmin•23m ago
https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369
iso1631•15m ago
https://xcancel.com/pj_lambert/status/2057477629528150369

I struggle to see how WFH, especially as that was far more common from 2020 to 2023 than 2023 to 2026

Rather than the post-covid slump we've seen globally

> WFH makes supervision, monitoring, and on-the-job learning harder

It makes it different. In many ways it makes it easier, if you have the right supervisors and mentors working in the right way.

The larger impact would be hotdesking. Going to an office and not sitting anywhere in your team makes collaboration harder than working from home.

The requirement to move job to progress in remuneration harms retention, and thus reduces willingness to invest in a junior, but it's the expectation to move job after 2-3 years.

gruez•39m ago
It's been creeping up even before the release of chatgpt.

https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250621_FNC...

skeeter2020•35m ago
You need to look at this in context of longer timeframes; recent college graduates have had higher unemployment rates since 2019, well before AI, and the diff has increased since covid. I suspect it's more about a decline in overall growth and hiring and AI now gives a convenient excuse, but the trend has been in play for a while.
iso1631•29m ago
Looking at this graph

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Unemploy...

I think you'd struggle to draw any conclusions about AI.

Note your quote was "all workers", not "workers of same age with or without a degree"

In the aftermath of 2008, recent graduates hit 7-8%, but their contemporaries without a degree hit 15%

cmiles8•33m ago
It’s mostly manufactured hype to keep the AI bubble going.

Nearly all the tech layoffs are simply companies trimming fat that was there the whole time. Outside the tech bubble folks have increasing disdain towards AI and can smell AI generated content from a mile away.

The tech is cool, and useful, but massively overhyped. Now there’s a mad rush for companies to IPO before the music stops.

gcanyon•19m ago
Everyone saying AI is an excuse: <whatever> is always an excuse. Companies build up marginal people over time: people who aren’t overtly fire-worthy, but who aren’t core contributors either. The pressure builds up, like the conditions for an avalanche, over time. When it’s at a critical point an inciting event can be relatively minor. And then the list gets made, and if there’s no one who says, “We really need Bob,” Bob goes on the list.

It can be about the proximal cause, but it doesn’t have to be at all.

All of that said, AI is going to directly cause job loss, I’m calling it now. Not as much as the doomsayers predict, but more than most people expect.

GitHub Actions down again today

https://www.githubstatus.com/?today
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