Anthropic’s latest reported valuation is around $965B.
That implies the former FTX stake would be worth about $75B before further dilution.
FTX’s customer shortfall was roughly $8B to $9B.
The estate sold the Anthropic stake during bankruptcy to repay creditors.
Sources: https://www.reuters.com/technology/crypto-exchange-ftx-sell-shares-ai-startup-anthropic-2024-02-22/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-files-us-ipo-after-anthropic-ai-giants-head-public-markets-2026-06-08/
The 7.84% state would probably be significantly diluted over this time frame so 4-5% is probably a more accurate estimate but perhaps high estimate.
This "not doing well" is being three times higher than at the time of FTX collapse.
Mt. Gox also ran a fractional exchange for a long time until the bottom fell out. The trouble is that you simply can’t run an unannounced fractional exchange.
A fraudulent bank is one that doesn't have enough liquidity or assets to cover all their obligations. Mt Gox and FTX were perfect examples of this.
The fact that some of their assets went up in the years or decades since is irrelevant. Madoff would probably be in the green now, too, simply thanks to asset inflation.
Like the customers were largely owed _not_ USD and so compared the USD value owed _4 years ago_ to the _current day_ USD value of something else that wasn't owed is just not correct.
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To do some of the math, assuming all the funds owed were bitcoin then 9 Billion / $17,000 ~= 47 thousand BTC owed.
At current $64k/BTC prices that's roughly $30 Billion. Which while still lower than $75B is much higher than just $9B and doesn't excuse SBF from fraudulently and very publicly claiming that all the money invested as backed 1:1 when it wasn't.
I also don't know how much more FTX's stake would be diluted as well and another commentator talked about nearly half so then it might not cover the "actual" owed value.
If only the role of trustees wasn't to do as they can to make creditors as whole as possible now, without risk, rather than keep playing the same kind of bets that got the bankrupt entity into the hole it was in...
> Jury leave, witness [Ellison] leaves.
> Judge: We can talk about [Anthopic] What about it?
> AUSA: Post-collapse performance is irrelevant.
> SBF's lawyer: It was a $91 million investment now worth $1 billion.
> Judge Kaplan: The crime charged is that he took the money.
> FTX’s customer shortfall was roughly $8B to $9B.
I think these hindsight analyses are interesting because they're leading a lot of into retroactively playing devil's advocate for SBF.
It is interesting to imagine a world where FTX made a one-time oopsie, broke some laws to cover it up, but then put all the money back and recovered like nothing ever happened.
You have to remember that this was literally their plan, though. They tried that. It didn't work.
If it had worked, they would have had to spend years hiding the facts from auditors and hoping that none of their employees ever leaked the info or tried to claim a whistleblower reward for what they knew.
If they had gotten past all of that, their continued existence would hinge on them not getting into the same position again. I have my doubts about that. Usually when people in these positions get away with their crimes they are only emboldened to continue taking the same or more risks in the future.
satvikpendem•2h ago
JumpCrisscross•1h ago
They levered into wrong-way bets into the crypto winter while stealing the money for yachts and effective-altruism philanthropy and political donations. This wasn’t a Madoff-type leak and confession. Their risk setting didn’t permit a world in which they didn’t blow up.
reisse•1h ago
jknoepfler•1h ago
dolphinscorpion•1h ago