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Nvidia's $750B in Deals Reignite Circular AI Fears

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-27/nvidia-s-750-billion-deals-revive-fear-of-ai-circular-financing
57•petethomas•1h ago

Comments

bwfan123•1h ago
I guess it gets bigger with each passing day. Tens of billions goes to Hundreds of billions.
vannevar•55m ago
It has to get bigger. As soon as it starts shrinking, the next round of debt will no longer be able to cover the prior round of commitments. What is happening in AI is essentially a gigantic version of what is happening in consumer auto loans, they just keep refinancing for more and more money. Eventually there will be no one willing to lend them more, and then they'll go to the government to bail them out.
apercu•53m ago
I'm not sure a government can bail out these irrational companies and have it not be political suicide.
fullshark•40m ago
I'd kill my political career for the private sector rewards sure to follow.
SoftTalker•30m ago
Those companies are already roundly hated by the general voting public, so I agree.
ryandvm•41m ago
Yeah, I'm pretty sure we've already passed some sort of fiscal singularity where economic and political interests are so intertwined that there can only be growth. If there ever isn't growth, then the legislators (who are elected via corporate sponsorship) will pull whatever levers necessary to make sure that there will always be asset growth.

It's some sort of tragic positive feedback loop that isn't going to stop until the whole thing comes crashing down for everyone and we're paying $37,000 for a loaf of bread.

renegade-otter•1h ago
They are just adding zeros to already obnoxious numbers that make no sense. The endgame is on.
jdalgetty•56m ago
At what point do I start taking money out of my VTI holdings and parking it in cash - there is no way the market keeps going up.
scrappyjoe•52m ago
Park it in BRK?
nickff•50m ago
BRK has been roughly flat since the beginning of 2025; you might be better off in bonds or money markets (depending on your beliefs about near-term inflation).
niklasd•40m ago
Not that I have any skills in stock-picking whatsoever, but couldn't the recent lukewarm performance not also be an argument for BRK?

I mean their cash pile is also invested in money markets (so you get that), and the rest of the portfolio consists of quality companies where their (combined) valuation didn't explode in the last 1,5 years. So it's an opportunity to invest into something that might not be overheated.

bryanlarsen•35m ago
BRK is 40% cash at the moment. I think "roughly flat" is evidence they're performing the strategy the OP wanted.

BRK has stated that they'll buy back in when prices are reasonable again, so it's an automatic "sell-high buy-low" strategy.

jshen•43m ago
First, don't park it in actual cash or you'll lose value to inflation which is currently running high. At a minimum put it in treasuries.

Second, trying to time the market is almost always a suboptimal strategy. The question is when will you likely need the money? If you won't need it for 10 years or more, keep it in index funds. Otherwise, treasuries.

theideaofcoffee•54m ago
It's come to a point (or has it passed it) that these numbers are completely meaningless. One hundred billion here, $750B there, $1.2T over a year or so, toss in $300B for a few hyperscalers there. There's no imaginable scenario where these are actually backed up with real profit to where the investments make sense. Just passing the same hundred dollar bill among everyone and all booking it as revenue. I can't wait until it pops.
gdulli•23m ago
Displacing a vast amount of labor is what makes the numbers make sense. We don't know if they'll succeed or not, but it's obviously what they're chasing.

In addition to actual lost jobs, replacing a skilled white collar worker with a fungible operator of AI lowers the salary for that role significantly.

meangenehackman•47m ago
It is far better for society when companies like Nvidia spend their money rather horde it like Apple.

Nobody (including the dragon) benefits from sitting on piles of gold.

pinkyboy•25m ago
Apple is a $5t company that has $45b cash-on-hand.

Your post is "cute", but 3 or 4 months of operating cash isn't a great example of "sitting on piles of gold".

joaquieneCnix•44m ago
DRAM will get to the moon before we get ...
mhitza•37m ago
Alternative source https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-plan...

> The concern is familiar: NVIDIA money funds customers who then buy NVIDIA chips.

NegatioN•32m ago
https://archive.is/epMTs
randyrand•25m ago
Circular is a dumb way to describe it IMO, because it's not like both parties end up in the same place.

Nvidia is making trades for people to buy their GPUs.

Sometimes companies are trading stock for GPUs, sometimes money, other times something else.

In summary, Nvidia is selling GPUs.

georgemcbay•24m ago
Its only a problem if you think about it, just don't think about it and no problem!
randyrand•22m ago
It's only a problem if you dont think about it.
Marciplan•21m ago
are you just heavily invested in Nvidia to not see this as problematic?
ar_lan•10m ago
We all are, mostly.
Analemma_•15m ago
They're selling GPUs in exchange for scrip which may or may not be able to pay Nvidia's operating expenses depending on whether AI has a profitable business model. This isn't hard to understand.
wonnage
ericpauley•23m ago
Personally I tend to assume anyone talking about VTI knows about the risk-free rate.
DougN7•43m ago
It’s such an obvious Ponzi scheme the companies should get delisted.
fullshark•28m ago
Just need a larger emergency fund to mitigate the risk, especially if you work in tech and you feel the crash would heavily impact your labor earnings (including possibly extended unemployment)
•
15m ago
Looks like you discovered an infinite money glitch! As long as you’re selling things at a profit, all you need to do is take those profits and give them to your customers to buy more things, repeat the loop a few times and you can become a billionaire food vlogger just like Jensen
thewebguyd•10m ago
Right. The risk isn't accounting fraud, its the equity-to-debt loop that relies on all these companies making "enough money to pay it back someday."

Nvidia invests, that equity check gets used to secure 10x it in debt with the GPUs as collateral, and then they buy the chips.

Nvidia gets paid, so they don't hold the debt reliability. But, if AI revenue doesn't cover those debt payments before the GPUs depreciate, the loop starts to unravel, and fast. CoreWeave, Oracle, all the "neoclouds" etc. will blow up, and there could potentially be a ton of PE debt that is now under-collateralized due to depreciation, causing a pretty big haircut to basically all of private credit.

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