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Situational Awareness Down 67% in July in AI Stock Rout

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/situational-awareness-down-67-in-july-in-ai-stock-rout-cd19901f
80•pondsider•1h ago

Comments

boringg•1h ago
Yesterdays news. High leverage. Sounds like citadel got a deal.
vessenes•1h ago
This is everywhere. For reference, former FTXer and OpenAIer raised $225m into a hedge fund structure, went long and short, and reportedly peaked at $40bn of value; leverage bit hard this week and they sold their entire-ish portfolio to Citadel at $10bn. (Which, I imagine was very likely aiming at this outcome in their trading in the last few weeks).

Not reported anywhere -- was additional money raised in to the fund, and what is the LP basis? The story might be: wunderkind 40x+ed his first hedge fund and sold it to Citadel, or it might be: wunderkind raised $20bn and turned it into $10bn fast trading against Citadel.

Inquiring minds want to know!

changoplatanero•1h ago
Say more about how citadel made this happen with their trading?
infecto•1h ago
Firms like citadel will run crowding analytics, who owns what, at what leverage and rough margin trigger points. Over simplifying but they could be shorting the longs and going long on the shorts. Everyone generally knew situational was heavily levered.
vessenes•54m ago
To be clear, I'm not claiming Citadel created double digit drops in SK Hynix / Samsung. I am saying that as market vol hits, vol traders might choose to make it worse. And when word hits the street someone has a liquidity position, prop traders WILL come and pressure. SA's filings were clear how concentrated they were, and this was known. In this case, Citadel (hedge fund) bought, while I imagine Citadel Securities would have been doing this (speculated upon) trading. We'll know more when the filings come out though. I'll be curious what of the portfolio they kept and what they worked / rolled in the market
jvsg_•53m ago
Citadel spread the rumor that the Fed was going to hike rates this week. This led to Situational Awareness getting margin called on their longs.
moralestapia•48m ago
Quite similar to CZ and FTX.
energy123•23m ago
That's a meme conspiracy theory on twitter that nobody in the industry takes seriously.
Aboutplants•1h ago
Either way he ended up with enough money for a pardon
drexlspivey•59m ago
Pardon for what? The crime of losing money?
RIMR•39m ago
Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders.

Though you cannot be pardoned from civil stuff, and the options to actually prosecute are pretty slim, so I doubt it.

Though, even if this is just tongue-in-cheek, you can literally buy a pardon in America right now with just a little bit a money into the pockets of the Trump family, in case you didn't get the joke (that the US government is literally pro-corruption right now).

mikestew•30m ago
Believe it or not, you are legally bound to act in the interests of shareholders.

Though a common Internet trope, this is incorrect. However, “legally” or not, you might find yourself unemployed should you ignore the shareholders.

laidoffamazon•20m ago
Anything he wants!
2PqboPPmKegvanx•55m ago
what law are you insinuating Aschenbrenner broke?
moralestapia•49m ago
Wow, so, he narrowly avoided prison while at FTX, then went to work for Scam Altman, now does "investment funds" (a classic trope).

The guy really really really wants to end up in prison, lol.

alasr•1h ago
Martin Shkreli breaks down the collapse of Situational Awareness: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49119380
malfist•1h ago
Why are you promoting content by Martin Shkreli? You know, the guy who committed securities fraud to rip off desperate patients?
ForHackernews•59m ago
seems like someone who is knowledgeable about financial shenanigans
WarmWash•59m ago
Like black hats getting cyber sec jobs, they probably know a thing or two.
r_lee•57m ago
I don't think those two cases are related

he's a relatively well known figure in finance and pharma investing

jakevoytko•57m ago
If you’re gonna be a hater you at least gotta do it right! The pricing and the securities fraud were two separate things you can count against him.
petesergeant
dogmayor•1h ago
Shocking to see a highly levered and highly concentrated fund blow out /s
eigenspace•1h ago
Quite the funny headline. It initially made me think that someone had come up with some sort of quantitative measure of the situational awareness of traders, and was claiming that there was an increase in traders making dumb trades that misread the situation or something.

Ironically, I would describe this selloff as an increase in situational awareness.

willchis•53m ago
Ha yes it definitely reads like an Onion headline.
HarHarVeryFunny•27m ago
Well, effectively that is kinda what it is saying, although it's the situational awareness of one particular trader it's referring to. The situational awareness of Citadel who scooped up their portfolio at fire sale prices seems quite good!
deadbabe•11m ago
I would definitely be interested in seeing someone come up with some kind of “situational awareness” index, to evaluate how much the market actually knows about what it’s investing in.
asats•1h ago
>Even including July's losses, the fund remains up about 80% on the year

Spectacular blowup and a lesson on leverage, but let's not miss this line.

bpodgursky•45m ago
It's hopeless, people see what they want to see.
cmiles8•8m ago
You’re missing the core story which is that they don’t have a returns crisis they have a liquidity crisis. Finds don’t blow up because they have bad returns. Funds implode because they have no cash to cover their calls and other needs for cash.
scrlk•55m ago
https://archive.ph/PCjtG
scrlk•53m ago
> Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run.

4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX.

Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened.

2PqboPPmKegvanx•47m ago
>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast

let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026.

his issue was getting margin called due to being short on software (which went up) and long on AI infra (which went down) - getting margin called != losing money.

uncivilized•40m ago
Yes he lost a ton of money. He went from being up as much as you said to up only 80% and getting liquidated at that point. If it weren’t for Citadel stepping in to buy his investments who knows how much worse it could have gotten.

The only thing you can argue is realized vs unrealized.

chollida1•27m ago
> let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026.

He's down 67% on the month. He most certainly lost alot of money.

He'll be fine and i think he'll be successful at raising more money, and he's still up on the year as far as I've been told by LP's, but he sure did lose alot of money this month.

RIMR
francisofascii•50m ago
Which AI stocks suffered a rout?
marcosdumay•19m ago
SPCX is getting lower and lower, MSFT is currently down 15% in an year, Oracle is close to 50% YoY...
redwood•43m ago
Incredible that the founder is engaged to be wed this very weekend to the chief of staff to Anthropic's CEO
bix6•37m ago
Situational Awareness. Fitting name.
ymolodtsov•37m ago
I like how Matt Levine formulated it.

His thesis was correct. The problem is, his thesis was measured in years if not decades when his funding was measured in days and hours.

foltik•32m ago
Where do I sign up to get $100M to dump into long AI positions?
cmiles8•30m ago
An inexperienced portfolio manager that’s never seen a down tech market in his life has created a massively leveraged position on frothy assets in a bubble and the bubble is looking ill. What could possibly go wrong.

Many of these AI plays are massively entangled and leveraged. It all looks good until it doesn’t and when there’s a hiccup things unravel quickly and exponentially. I fully expect in the next 12 months we’re going to see some rather spectacular investment implosions with folks losing their shirts. Get your popcorn ready.

neom•21m ago
Worth noting, even with the margin call, he's still up 80% on the year: https://www.ft.com/content/a0a5e3a7-c4e6-42a6-9a7b-a780422bc...
next_xibalba•17m ago
And yet:

> Despite the July losses, Situational Awareness remains up about 80% on the year and holds a portfolio of investments in private companies including Anthropic.

80% return (YTD) is the type of performance for which many hedge fund managers would sacrifice their first born.

jghn•53m ago
I say this with absolutely no evidence and only stating it as a hypothetical. But as an example it would be plausible that insider trading was involved.
2PqboPPmKegvanx•50m ago
trust us, it's quite clear you have no knowledge about the topic you are speaking on.
infecto•45m ago
Then why state it?
axus•14m ago
Because Hacker News appreciates discussion of the theoretical, that exceeds the bounds of what mainstream society thought was possible.
infecto•9m ago
Since when does HN discussion appreciate unfounded accusations? Stop blowing smoke.

Yes going down threads of discussion but not calling insider trading without any evidence. The fund was massively levered, that is a large part of the reason it did so well.

•
56m ago
Because he’s an expert.

Edit: I don't do podcasts but this is absolutely worth some of your time to watch.

gessha•56m ago
You can still learn from thieves and crooks. Especially if they break down what they did and how they did it.
dgellow•48m ago
Just keep in mind you might be the mark of his current scheme
infecto•55m ago
He is one of the few folks in finance who regularly streams and is directionally interesting. He served his time.
zetanor•55m ago
Can you provide a comparable or superior analysis by someone else?
rib3ye•55m ago
He has done more for wallstreet-to-mainstreet transparency than you believe.

His investor literacy youtube backlog is unusually deep and as of yet has only shilled his own trading product.

But your point is valid, he will never live down the fraud conviction and his face is so punchable.

dgellow•49m ago
The shady crypto projects he did after his release are also good reasons to distrust the guy
loco5niner•54m ago
I really don't like this guy, seriously he's a shark (he's probably right, but what a jerk): "If you know somebody has to liquidate, the best thing you have to do, unfortunately, sadly, Darwinian is to go sell all the positions you have in common, then start shorting everything they have. It accelerates the downfall as quickly as you can." of course then he says 'It's nothing I would ever do...'
infecto•52m ago
That’s truly the playbook when you are on the other side of a levered firm though.
loco5niner•42m ago
Yeah, probably. Its too bad.
infecto•41m ago
Why too bad? This is how the market ultimately comes to the right price.
ymolodtsov•36m ago
If there's any purpose in hedge funds as a structure it's that they provide liquidity for the market. So it's in everyone's best interest to let them do price discovery against each other.
literalAardvark•22m ago
Not really.

Using leverage has risks that you're supposed to understand before you do it.

It's not a free lunch, unless you're putting the sharks' interest ahead of yours. Or clueless, which was the case here, as L.A. is not a trader and has no business running a fund.

quickthrowman•2m ago
Too bad for the people that were overleveraged? I don’t see why, they assumed too much risk and lost. It happens.
jvuygbbkuurx•53m ago
He has served his time for those crimes
literalAardvark•42m ago
Because hn is primarily about competence, knowledge and tech, which Martin has in spades.

The arguments against him barely hold water in general anyway.

eigenspace•28m ago
lmao
fred_is_fred•22m ago
A federal jury sure thought they held water.
literalAardvark•13m ago
Martin was convicted on three counts of securities fraud. The TL;DR is he was shilling a successful fund while sitting on massive losses. A Madoff kinda thing.

This has nothing to do with what people actually hate him for, and for which he was not convicted, because extracting money from a captive clientele is exactly what the US healthcare system is designed to do.

baggachipz•29m ago
He's an absolute ghoul, and to see sibling comments praising him breaks my heart. Yeah, he "did his time", but he also took advantage of sick people for immense profit. You don't get a pass for that.
•
45m ago
Sounds like someone took huge risks, incurred huge losses, and thought they were entitled to always win. It honestly feels good seeing these folks get knocked down a peg.
mamonster•33m ago
>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened.

I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees (and how much they were) he gathered over the last 3 years. Just the perf fees from 2025 are probably enough to set him up for life. If he reinvested not so great.

hn_throwaway_99•21m ago
> I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees

I mean, I'm pretty sure he pocketed the money and got richer. Most hedge fund compensation structure has always (ironically, I'd add, given the name "hedge" fund) incentivized volatility over long term performance.

stephbook•15m ago
Even Wirecard – a fraudulent German bank missing some billions of euros and run by a Russian spy – always blamed bad press.

Denials mean nothing.

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