frontpage.
newsnewestaskshowjobs

Open Source @Github

fp.

Open in hackernews

The AI Productivity Gap

https://bjorg.bjornroche.com/management/ai-productivity-gap/
20•kiyanwang•2h ago

Comments

laszlojamf•43m ago
What I have noticed in my own work that a lot of the time that used to be for coding is now just waiting. I have three agents working on three different features in parallel, and I'll go back and forth with all of them, correcting things and steering etc, but then I find myself with three busy agents and nothing to myself except stare at the screen while they code away. There is a mental budget for me where I can't have more than those three running at the same time and still keep track so what I end up doing is just scrolling HN...
dgellow•30m ago
I stopped using coding agents after more than one and a half year of active use, it really started to become way too boring, and I’m t a point where I just hate having to babysit them and for the 200th time make it understand what the actual goal is… and to be honest, going back to writing code by hand without assistance is really hard at first you continuously have that little voice telling you how simple that would be with an agent. Then after a little bit you’re back to being productive, but I still get that voice in my mind. I’m wondering if that’s how addiction feels (way lighter of course).

That whole experience of going deep for a while into LLM coding, then trying to leave it behind made me pretty pessimistic about the future of our profession. We are creating a whole industry of people delegating their ability to work to a software stack currently controlled by basically 2 companies (that both have very sketchy financials). Doesn’t feel healthy

mawadev•19m ago
I'd be really interested to see all the software that is written by agents. Whenever I touch agents or ai I can't get much use out of them. My understanding is the value when I think aloud with them/treat them as a better google search, but thats about it. Except one off web stuff, that is a pretty neat use case.

But lets be real, anything moderately complex that is out of the domain of publicly available sample code is hit or miss compared to the time invested running the loop. I'd much rather invest the time in myself.

What a lot of people don't talk about is the inherent security nightmare of trusting ai agents and the sheer data exfiltration happening behind the scenes.

himata4113•17m ago
Neither of these points feel true anymore.

Models are very much predictable these days (except anthropic models). The real issue stems from letting them work on their own for far too long. Also we are not controlled by 2 companies anymore as kimi k3, deepseek flash (and soon pro) as the ultra-cheap variants, glm 5.2 especially is a direct replacement for opus 4.8.

Models will only get better and cheaper I wouldn't feel too pessimistic and wouldn't feel too bad on relying on them to accelerate work and free up mental space from menial tasks.

As a personal side-note I never let my agents do architectual design I only use them for implementing. I always found the actual coding part of programming extremely boring and coming up with designs, experimenting and testing the fun part.

dwedge•19m ago
This has been my observation too. Because I'm chatting it feels like I'm not working, so any output can be "productive" in that context but I'm hyper aware of all the negative time here. Correcting, pushing it back to the prompt, reminding it that it doesn't have full context so do what I told you not what you think, and then verifying it and correcting it (always) seems to take longer than just doing the work myself
pop3zxcv•15m ago
I find myself in the same situation, baby sitting AI agent, monitoring them. It's like l've become a coordinator.
mawadev•42m ago
"We can disagree about the specific numbers here, but if you think this is wildly off, you’ve probably never been a senior developer"

I'd even say the productivity gap is even smaller, if not negative in some areas...

dwedge•21m ago
I think juniors and fake seniors are a lot more productive because they were never really able to measure their productivity so spamming LoC and trusting AI output makes sense to them.
PostOnce•32m ago
Pre AI and Post AI code review hours are both 0.75 in this made up example. I find that implausible.

Even with the same amount of code, AI code is less trustworthy* and requires more attention... but we know it won't be the same amount, it will be more. This means it will take longer to review, or there will be unforeseen consequences of not spending that extra time.

*meaning no human eyes have looked at it and said "this doesn't make sense", or "this is cheating", or "this doesn't meet requirements", and won't be caught until code review if at all.

rightbyte•14m ago
The hard part is that LLM code looks like there is some sort of flow. It is like a nice statistical smooth flow. It looks very convincing at a glance. No one would write code like that and not know what they are doing comments self assured and all.
vb-8448•26m ago
Based on personal observation, a lot of productivity has been thrown out of the window with unneeded refactoring, rewrites and "what-if" scenarios that the AI agent will spot.
dude250711•21m ago
"... unneeded refactoring, rewrites and "what-if" scenarios ..."

Like so many senior developers I have encountered. That stuff is good for CV.

dwedge•22m ago
> There’s no doubt that AI has already improved the productivity of engineering teams, and will only get better in the coming years.

They lost me by begging the question in the very first sentence.

qsort•19m ago
I've had similar conversations with a client recently while discussing estimates for a large project. Senior leadership has a mental model where AI makes everything X% faster, but that's very wrong. Some things get sped up by an insane amount and basically go to zero, some others not so much. Entirely new tasks emerge, such as directing agents to provide them the context they need, setting loops, etc.

It's a very O-ring problem.

ghenna•17m ago
Based on personal experience on a specific project, that 1.5 hours with AI let me accomplish work planned for a man-week in the pre-AI era. So it’s much more than 3x.
matthorse•16m ago
Writing code is a small part of everyday's job of a software engineer. The article's table reflects this fairly well.

AI compresses implementation time for an individual engineer, but architecture decisions, design reviews, integration, testing, deployment, and production validation remain largely serial activities. If code generation speeds up by 5x while those bottlenecks don't, you've mostly increased the team's work queue rather than its throughput.

With the current capabilities, models still need constant babysitting and course correction. An engineer who lacks the skills to guide them can end up creating more work for the rest of the team. AI makes it easy to generate code faster than you can understand it, and that cost is paid during code review, debugging, and maintenance by colleagues, whose confidence in that engineer's skills may be affected by his use of AI.

What looks like a productivity gain for one engineer can become a productivity loss for the team as a whole.

jorisw•15m ago
Perfect summary of what's going on today
ectoloph•4m ago
AI is a force multiplier.

It multiplies both good and bad decisions. Both mine and it's 'own'.

I can get some things done 10x faster and it might even catch mistakes or help me solve something difficult.

But if I am being lazy or complacent then it bites me that much harder.

Don't be a meat proxy

https://gruhn.me/blog/2026-08-03/
496•ngruhn•3h ago•215 comments

Qwen3.8-Max: A New Bar for Coding and Cowork

https://qwen.ai/blog?id=qwen3.8
548•ai2027•7h ago•272 comments

Rust project goals: Immobile types and guaranteed destructors

https://github.com/rust-lang/rust-project-goals/blob/main/src/2026/move-trait.md
62•paavohtl•2h ago•14 comments

Bonsai: Janestreet's UI Library

https://github.com/janestreet/bonsai
26•KolmogorovComp•1h ago•3 comments

The AI Productivity Gap

https://bjorg.bjornroche.com/management/ai-productivity-gap/
21•kiyanwang•2h ago•19 comments

Octane – React's programming model, compiled

https://octanejs.dev
12•nnx•1h ago•4 comments

Show HN: Isopolis – Isometric pixel map of SF

https://sf.isopolis.city/
213•nuwandavek•8h ago•49 comments

Karpathy’s Pelican

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/2083749667410727319
567•delichon•1d ago•388 comments

How do you rewrite C/C++ projects to Rust?

https://blog.jetbrains.com/rust/2026/07/27/cpp-to-rust-migration/
9•smokeeaasd•5d ago•4 comments

Why we write our own C and C++ inference engines

https://localai.io/blog/why-we-write-our-own-engines/
54•eatonphil•2d ago•26 comments

Show HN: ssh ssh.place

https://ssh.place
112•jeninh•9h ago•66 comments

The Shape of Things to Come

https://yegge.ai/essays/the-shape-of-things-to-come/
12•tosh•2h ago•4 comments

More German than many Germans

https://mertbulan.com/more-german-than-many-germans/
252•mertbio•3h ago•173 comments

CP/M-386 – CP/M for 386 protected mode, derived from CP/M‑68K

https://github.com/johnsonjh/cpm386
67•TMWNN•8h ago•30 comments

Autoregressive Language Model on the 6502 Processor

https://mattbeton.com/blog/bitnet-6502.html
109•nmstoker•2d ago•10 comments

Convergence is not enough

https://www.inkandswitch.com/livelymerge/notebook/lm-02/
32•zdw•6d ago•5 comments

Note-Taking and Personal Knowledge Management

https://unattributed.cc/note-taking-and-personal-knowledge-management
201•surprisetalk•5d ago•59 comments

Show HN: A Handwritten Blogging Platform

https://handwritten.blog/
102•emilesilvis•3d ago•51 comments

Show HN: Kakehashi – Experimental userspace to run macOS binaries on Linux ARM

https://github.com/wie-project/kakehashi
217•vlad_kalinkin•17h ago•55 comments

Why Book Corners won't sync contributions back to OpenStreetMap

https://www.andreagrandi.it/posts/why-book-corners-wont-sync-contributions-back-to-openstreetmap/
93•pizzaiolo•9h ago•58 comments

Show HN: I created a project management system

https://is.team
7•spotlayn•2h ago•6 comments

Developers are attached to tools because tools encode trust

https://stackoverflow.blog/2026/07/29/developers-are-attached-to-tools-because-tools-encode-trust/
210•HieronymusBosch•4d ago•111 comments

SwiftUI After 7 Years

https://ykvm.com/2026/07/swiftui-a-story-of-mediocrity/
192•mpweiher•14h ago•174 comments

AI migrated legacy COBOL programs to Java, bugs included

https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.28271
63•felineflock•6h ago•48 comments

Situational Awareness and the Impending Stock Market Volatility

https://www.emergingtrajectories.com/lh/situational-awareness-bigger-picture/
6•cl42•3h ago•4 comments

Read the novels and forget everything else

https://hedgehogreview.com/web-features/thr/posts/read-the-novels-and-forget-everything-else
96•samclemens•2d ago•80 comments

The myth of Snow Leopard

https://www.rubenerd.au/the-myth-of-snow-leopard/
97•speckx•15h ago•79 comments

RFC 9851: TLS 1.2 is in Feature Freeze

https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc9851.html
36•Jimmc414•8h ago•16 comments

Norway became a global salmon behemoth. Now it's facing the consequences

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-28/how-norway-s-salmon-industry-became-a-global-behemoth/1069...
160•CHB0403085482•6d ago•120 comments

How the words we teach English language learners changed

https://pudding.cool/2026/07/essential-words/
219•c-oreills•17h ago•168 comments