And now that code is being watermarked by AI, suddenly they’re artists, painstakingly prompting, crafting, to get just the right code; the watermark is unethical even!

AI psychosis is real, and even some of the smartest people I know how succumbed to it.

If maintenance and security is fully automated and for small changes or a small feature you will only dump some spec document into your agent platform, for sure.

We keep hearing this, but where is the Photoshop killer written by a gas station attendant? Where is the PayPal alternative written by a retired nurse?

Over and over we're told that software is now trivial to write, and Claude is evidently writing some billions of lines of code a day, but where are the results? Where is the vibe coded app toppling the legacy hand-coded monster product from 20 years ago?

I mean, think about it; just a few short years ago there was a very strong market for software engineers, despite outsourcing and immigration being very much part of the landscape.

I don’t think it’s “just a tool”, it’s something that directly compete with the role of humans in a system, by design

If you're a good dev, you can totally prompt Claude to not do this and correct itself, that's not an issue. The issue is that bad devs won't even notice this is happening in the first place.

I for one tend to care less about the minutiae of solutions implemented by AI as long as it gets the job done, I do care about architecture and design decisions and correctness and I have ways to steer and verify these when working with LLMs but I couldn't care less about it writing "good" code. Bad engineers also produce better results with AI at least when they're working in established frameworks, AI doesn't really need a lot of high level architecture input when designing or building a web app with a common stack, so as long as you're not working on something that's completely novel I don't think it will make a strong difference.

Maybe designers think the same way about the AI generated web designs I have Claude Code do for me but to be honest I don't care, I just know that before this tool existed it would have taken me weeks or months to come up with a good design and I would have to rely on prefabricated UI libraries and stuff like that or pay a designer tens of thousands of USD to make one for me, now I can get a (for me and my customers) perfectly acceptable and professional design within a few hours. So maybe I'm also a bad designer that amplifies my bad design taste 10x in my company, but the fact is the stuff ships and makes money and the customer is happy! And I can tell you customers or users don't give a shit about how good your code is, they only care if the software works and does what they want!

The past 5-10 years or so saw me pretty beaten down though with software engineering, and AI was the final nail in the coffin that caused me to leave the profession in later middle age. I thought software as a business had "lost its way" from building great products with attention to detail to "how do we addict as many people as possible as quickly as possible". Think about the degradation in Apple software from say the "it just works" era to now.

With respect to AI, I'm not really against it, and I find it extremely valuable in my personal projects. I just feel in a large group/enterprise context that it's replaced a lot of tasks I actually enjoy doing with becoming an editor for what feels like a slightly inebriated junior developer. Or maybe it's better to say a junior developer on a mild amount of meth, because as you say this developer can churn out semi-but-not-fully-working code at an astonishing rate, and then I feel like it's often my job to mop the slop off the floor. Pass, not interested.

I feel lucky to have had my career during what I consider the golden age of software engineering, but I'd note I don't think that golden age lasted even a full career of one person.

The issue is that with no reins, the LLM is a fire hose of bad code compared to the garden hose of bad code orgs had before. A good engineer, with a good model and harness will produce great stuff. A bad engineer with a good model and harness will produce something faster, but it will be worse.

We are pushing tons of code and now our CPU usage has grown exponentially over the past year because the bad engineers just ship whatever Claude gives them and do not think about the consequences.

Our biggest consumer of CPU right now is HTTP connection churn because engineers are creating new clients every request we handle. If the engineers would just think for a second, push back on Claude, even Claude would tell them this is bad. But they don't... Platform engineering is now 10x harder with terrible engineers and unlimited code machines.

Don't even get me started on ffmpeg usage, engineers act like the resources are unlimited.

A big part of this is ensuring that a "bad" engineers can still write solid code and also investing in systems that make it easier for us to review code.

When it comes to writing code, we have this entire library of coding standards that we've moved from one project to another. It describes, sometimes in excruciating detail, exactly how we want our code structured, antipatterns, best practices, etc.

On the review side we have invested equally into skills that split up code into readable chunks, take screenshots of any UI changes for quick validation, and a whole battery of tests to ensure that we're not generating slop.

If you were to look at just our development process, you would conclude that we're very lazy engineers. We seldom write code by hand, we seldom ask for corrections and our reviews are more of a cursory look at the PR rather than a deep review.

But the real work is not in the "development layer", it's now in the "agent layer". Making sure the agent knows how to write solid code so we don't need to write code by hand, making sure it doesn't make dumb mistakes so we don't have to correct it, and structuring our review process in such a way where an engineer only has to take a cursory look at the code.

The key difference we noticed between the "old way" and the "new way" is the "new way" is way more scalable and we're able to move way faster than we ever could before.

I've seen a twist - not juniors but just offshore engineers.

Primarily in Silicon Valley or outside of it?

I worked most of my two decades in the Valley but also spent time outside of it. There is in many cases a vast gulf between the dev cultures. What the parent comment is describing I've seen many many times.

I would have said the same thing for the first 15 years of my career across several jobs and acquisitions.

Then I took a job at a company that fit this description. They had so many managers and PMs that every task was talked about, broken down, and documented so much that every Jira ticket was a little piece of work that a junior could handle by Googling things.

The quirk was that they had started hiring a lot of experienced and staff level engineers, too, but then tried to force this same framework on to everyone. We spent more time discussing tasks than doing them by a factor of 2-50X. There are some situations where this is appropriate, but none of our work was actually high scale or difficult. Your day might be spent writing design docs and collective sign offs as you worked through committees until the tickets at the end were so simple that any junior could do them.

It didn’t lead to better software. It was one big cargo cult game of performative management. A frequent outcome was that someone would get into the micromanaged tickets and realize there was a better way to handle something, but it wasn’t worth doing all of the fighting and meetings involved to do the meeting and Jira ticket dance all over again.

Unfortunately, looking back, I could easily see Claude replacing 3 out of 4 of those developers. Myself + one other dev + AI would probably would've shipped a bit more a little faster. With that said tokens aren't free so the net cost savings would've been 2 dev salaries maximum.

The gp you replied to qualified it with "enterprise software" (LOB, CRUD, etc aka "cost center") so your observations where senior -vs- junior engineers being more fungible can be true.

However, in "engineering" type of software products (game engines, RDBMS engines, operating systems, etc) where the software is more often a "product" that's sold (aka profit center) ... there is definitely different layers of complexity where senior and junior engineers are not fungible at all.

One way to describe the differences of complexity and criticality in various parts of the source tree is the "core" parts vs the "leaf" parts. E.g. in a game engine or Linux kernel, the deep parts of the engine or os process scheduler where the tight loops are located are the "core" parts. They most likely would be worked on by the most senior people.

But the game engine may have some less complex code for handling text width on a menu for different foreign languages. Or the os needs a new menu option on the installer to ask for the users age. Those would be more "leaf" functionality in the source tree. A junior could get assigned to those parts with less risk. After a few years of experience, he might be trusted enough to work on the deep "core" logic without screwing things up in catastrophic ways for a million customers.

A product with several million lines of source code will invariably have both the "hard parts" and "easy parts" so the new hires and juniors will work on the easier stuff first.

There's also a spectrum of hard-to-easy in enterprise software but it's much more narrow than engineering code bases

So without a training pipeline to provide experience to jr. Devs, in 15 years we will be hurting for senior devs to replace all the graybeards. Kind of like the fortran crisis of the last decade or so.... Just across an entire industry that supports every other industry....

I wonder if there's an agent harness that would work well for requirements gathering.

I have worked in startups before and currently work at bkng, and have friends at uber. Everywhere it is expected that the engineers will create their own tickets and refine them with the team. If you are in a product facing team, your PM could even help you with a PRD but I have not seen one in the last few years.