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Show HN: I made a retirement simulator: 125 years of data, 25 countries

https://foresightplanner.com/
13•nhootan•1h ago

Comments

drop_star•43m ago
Why do I need to sign into everything these days? The moment I see that I close the site.
albumen•39m ago
You don’t need to for its quick check, which shows the core feature.
rconti•37m ago
yeah, this is quite literally the first thing i saw when i opened the page.
bluGill•32m ago
You need it to dig deeper. I have a pension which I can get at 65.

I have options to collect social security. What if I draw my 401k first and wait until 72 to start as? Or I can get take as at 62 and the 401k grows more...

memoryleakgame•38m ago
So its a monte carlo simulation but I can't enter growth rate country time horizons or anything like that?

Brother I have a better claude code vibe app than this in an hour

You need to really talk to a financial planner and learn what the proper inputs are

bluGill•37m ago
This doesn't know the important part. Will I live to 62 as the earliest of my ancestors died, or 98 as the latest? My family history is about average for lifespan but that is a big difference. If I live to 62 I should retire at 50 - or perhaps I shouldn't have bothered saving at all since the growth isn't there. Of medical advances make me love to 150 I should save until I'm 80 which will be a nice income to really enjoy the rest of my life.

I want more defined benefit accounts, but they are hard to find

karmakurtisaani•20m ago
So the thing is that no one knows that part.
Eddy_Viscosity2•12m ago
Can't we just get AI to tell us? I'm sure it will confidently give an answer.
betaby•34m ago
Better be safe I guess:

Foresight Planner is not yet available in your region. We're launching in Canada (excluding Quebec) first. We don't yet support Quebec, because we don't yet offer the product in French. If you'd like us to let you know when we expand, email hi@foresightplanner.com.

Foresight Planner n'est pas encore disponible dans votre région. Nous lançons d'abord au Canada (hors Québec). Pour être informé·e de l'élargissement de notre service, écrivez à hi@foresightplanner.com.

Region: CA-QC

jawns•33m ago
I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M.

Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.

If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?

Eric714•32m ago
Same here
Eric714•31m ago
That's because the withdrawals are 4%. If you have $3M, maybe lower the withdrawals to 1.25%. That would be the same as 4% of $1M.
jawns•26m ago
I don't think that's accurate.

If I withdraw 4% of a $1M portfolio, I only have $960K left to compound.

If I withdraw 4% of a $3M portfolio, I should have $2.88M left to compound.

If the question is "Will your money last?" I would not expect the simulation results to be identical.

Edit: I failed here. Downvotes are right. I simulated it myself and saw the results. Leaving this comment here so others can learn from my mistake.

BretonForearm•31m ago
Why not let people try it from abroad? Not in the USA? No luck. Why does the withdrawal rate need to be a multiple of 0.5%? It's curious that the highest chance was associated with the highest (100%) stock ratio.
pelagic_sky•1m ago
I'm in NZ and it worked. It gave me US figures and numbers though. And I find there are existing FIRE calculators already out there that are tried and true.
rachelb1331•21m ago
I didn't want to put in my email address in order to access the detailed calculator... The quick check doesn't have nearly enough information to give anyone an idea of what actually to expect...
bryanlarsen•14m ago
It's really nice to see a simulator that removes the home country bias. So many of these types of simulations use American data. But that's pretty extreme cherry-picking: America has had a pretty exceptional run these last 100+ years. Any retirement simulator cannot assume that America's exceptional growth will continue. Maybe it will, but you cannot plan on a maybe.
fusslo•10m ago
huh, yesterday I vibe coded a similar tool. It lets me set my current savings, investment, retirement. Expected yearly savings, expected number of years of work left. After retirement, only withdrawals are allowed (investments, savings still get returns tho)

Codex suggested a bunch of improvements: monte carlo, investment volatility, expense inflation, capital gains tax etc. One thing codex didn't ask about was social security. So that's another factor that could be improved.

I wanted to know 'do I really need to work 30 more years?'

Well, according to the ~vibe~ output I would be 'dying' at age 87 with 28M in the bank if I did.

What would be really interesting is discovering an attainable formula where my investments outpace my expenses. Or, what variables let me die with basically $0 in the bank

At the end, I realized I had no idea what the calculator was REALLY doing. So it could be right... it could be really wrong too. Having historical data might help solve those issues

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