SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

https://www.sammyfans.com/2026/08/29/sk-hynix-ceo-sees-memory-chip-shortage-lasting-until-2030/

45•porridgeraisin•7h ago

Comments

mey•1h ago

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

thijson•1h ago

I remember in the 90's there was some sort of shortage reportedly due to fires. In the end it was found the shortage was due to collusion by the manufacturers.

https://share.google/aimode/ewJpwCHUINOHzjBVg

high_na_euv•1h ago

But fortunely today we know that there is huge demand due to AI

nubinetwork•1h ago

It did happen in the early 2010s though https://www.crn.com/news/storage/231902425/thailand-floods-t...

ChiperSoft•1h ago

Oh its probably that again

https://www.polygon.com/ram-manufacturers-sued-supply-price-...

xattt•1h ago

Is the thing that’s different now that the colluders are banking on is that we are in a worldwide kleptocracy?

voidfunc•40m ago

Yep

toast0•22m ago

After the first two times, do they even need to collude?

Can't they count on each other doing the profitable thing? Especially when they PR it:

> Furthermore, focused investment in HBM is creating a virtuous cycle that improves profitability in the general-purpose memory market. As resources are diverted to HBM, the supply-demand balance for general DRAM is improving.

January 5, 2026 - SK hynix market outlook.

https://news.skhynix.com/en/2026-market-outlook-focus-on-the...

FLeXMurphy•51m ago

Assume the person knows something you don't.

mey•42m ago

They know many things I don't. I can easily assume they have a specific reason to make a public statement that is within their interests. Without any reports/prospectus/booked contracts, it's just marketing/spin.

catigula•1h ago

Aren't they printing unlimited money from this? I'm sure the chip shortage lasts as long as they're capable of extending it without falling to competitors.

That's the problem with monopolies.

PowerElectronix•47m ago

He could just have said "lasting forever and ever".

It's ram chips, the bottom of the barrel of semi manufacturing. If you get high prices for long enough, everyone is gonna jump into the market.

potus_kushner•30m ago

especially if they get away unpunished for their price fixing. https://web.archive.org/web/20260701064235/https://www.polyg...

throw234259•26m ago

> everyone is gonna jump into the market

Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring.

Only competitor is mainlaind china!

worldofmatthew•23m ago

> mainlaind china

Exactly. China wil push for it as China factories will supply Chinese AI first.

geodel•19m ago

But for now can't EU regulate the RAM price? They seem to be able to do what they want.

fidotron•14m ago

drob518•47m ago

New title: SK Hynix CEO is desperate for memory chip shortage to last until 2030 or longer

Fixed it for you.

2OEH8eoCRo0•37m ago

SK hynix CEO compelled by CEO obligations to paint a rosy and sustainable picture of memory chip demand.

Aloha•22m ago

I dont think he's wrong.

Dell is making moves to introduce server grade hardware without ECC memory.

There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive, its DDR5-ECC where the prices go stratospheric.

2OEH8eoCRo0•15m ago

The point is that he must say this either way. If he expected demand to decline next year do you think he would come out and say that?

mmastrac•9m ago

Do you have a source for more info? That seems odd to me - LLMs are particularly resilient to bitflips, so if anything the demand would pull on DDR5 in general, not on ECC specifically.

well_ackshually•6m ago

>There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive,

My 2x16GB of DDR5-6000 that I bought for 250€ is now 650€. 2x32GB that cost 200€ last July now goes for close to 1250€. Even my shitty ass DDR4-3000 sticks from over ten years ago would be selling for close to 300€.

DDR5 is horribly expensive, the only variants that are not as expensive are low frequencies or low amounts.

alephnerd•30m ago

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN.

The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms.

Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the corner. Yes we are ALL old now.

Using priors from 2015-2019 is the equivalent of thinking your experience in 1995-1999 should inform decisions made in 2008-2013.

vlucas•28m ago

Same. There is huge, real demand for memory and storage everywhere you look. New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online. Every vendor has completely sold out capacity and is backlogged on top of that. This 5-year estimate is actually pretty realistic to me. I think we are stuck with high prices on these components for at least the next 3 years, minimum.

boredhedgehog•8m ago

> New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online.

Why should that be set in stone? Surely there are corners that can be cut if there's so much profit on the table.

xnx•25m ago

Agree. Also lots of suppressed demand at current prices. If prices return to anything like pre-AI, demand would grow dramatically.

reducesuffering•7m ago

You've been here awhile, this forum is default incredibly skeptical and critical, especially when it comes to AI. It has been to their predictive detriment for many years now. AI bubble conviction is over 2 years now, $300b NVDA profits since. AI tool adoption has completely encompassed any tech savvy office and isn't going anywhere. Broken records.

fakedang•19m ago

Memory chip shortage lasting *until China floods the market with their cheaper but rigged chips.

FTFY. At the rate China's moving on this, it won't be long till they get a stranglehold on the consumer chip market.

alex43578•7m ago

What’s a “rigged” chip in this context?

well_ackshually•3m ago

It's chips that work just as well, except that they make the original poster sad because china bad.

marcosscriven•19m ago

What are the limiting factors here?

Clearly it’s the fabrication of RAM/HBM chips. But if the margin is so high, why can’t other fabs like CPU fabs be used? I assume they’re not as CPU prices are going down. Or are they radically different and not easily reconfigured?

alex43578•8m ago

Very different processes. Even setting up a new CPU design in a fab that already makes CPU dies is months of validation, for context.

Taqas•16m ago

Given economy of scale, on the long-term can we expect lower than 2019 RAM prices?

nashashmi•5m ago

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