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True Rate of Unemployment

https://www.lisep.org/tru
70•ptrhvns•2h ago

Comments

mc32•55m ago
I don't see the revelation, it still appears we're near historical lows and it's not spiking. It's not like there is any divergence between before and now. It's not bad to know what this rate is but it's also not revealing a lie. If you apply their stat methodologies to other G-7, you get similar results.
gehwartzen•28m ago
Just because the economic system we have has always been shitty for a high percentage of our neighbors doesn’t mean it always has to be that way. Other top economic countries being similar doesn’t excuse it.
Jblx2•16m ago
If you do this with PPP with every other country on earth, which ones look the best?
skybrian•41m ago
I see some odd effects. I wonder how these would be explained?

According to the headline rate, unemployment was about the same in 1995. According to this alternative measure of unemployment, it's gone down by around 8% overall.

When split by race, it's gone down the most for Hispanics.

By education, it's gone down the most for people who didn't complete High School.

xeromal•27m ago
Just a guess but gig work might be picking up some of that slack?
SpicyLemonZest•19m ago
State level minimum wages were much less common in 1995, so it was easier for workers to be below their poverty threshold. Even though the federal wage got stuck, in many states today, the minimum wage is high enough that it's not possible for a full time worker to make less than $26,000 in a year.
ElProlactin•25m ago
> ...or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes.

I couldn't easily tell how they decided on a $26,000 "living wage" figure but in most of the US, even double that is not Easy Street.

The "True Rate of Barely Getting By" is ridiculously high in the US from what I can gather.

SpicyLemonZest•22m ago
This definition sounds like U-6 unemployment (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE) with an additional term for people making below a living wage. That's better constructed than most of these "real stats" I see, so I hate to be too critical. But they don't really engage with the important question of whether this metric is sufficiently robust for policymakers to use. Just eyeballing it, it seems to be quite a bit more volatile than the headline rate; if the Fed tried to target it, for example, would they end up doing a bunch of unnecessary rate cuts to stave off unemployment spikes that aren't real?
runako•18m ago
Anybody who believes ~30% of the workforce was functionally unemployed in 1999 does not know what those words mean, or was not an adult in 1999.

I get what they are trying to convey, but the stronger message is the more straightforward: there are too many jobs that do not pay enough to live on.

xbmcuser•8m ago
For me the true problem which most countries dont even acknowledge is low wealth and capital gains tax. Salaries are not enough because of land prices and the prices inflation it causes through out the economy. You bring down price of home land rent then price of everything else comes down. And their is a lot more economic activity as trillions of dollars are not parked in real estate for wealth generation.
wxw•13m ago
> the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes

Seems like reasonable criteria. "Regular" unemployment is

# unemployed/# employed

where unemployed is they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available to work. But not much criteria in terms of what work people are finding.

RachelF•12m ago
Similar statistics for Australia: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10192-australian-unemploy...

It all depends on the definition of "Unemployment". Most governments do not count you as unemployed if you've stopped looking for work, been unemployed for over 6 months, or if you made $25 as an Uber driver for 1 hour's work that month.

zkmon•3m ago
> the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job ...

What is the "U.S. labor force" defined as? Is it a age group thing?

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1040•denysvitali•10h ago•968 comments

True Rate of Unemployment

https://www.lisep.org/tru
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