Hasn't this been true for like 40 years

That is too bad for The Economist. Exor N.V and Agnelli might replace some pundits at The Economist.

Product idea: a LLM trained separately from mainline LLMs that anticipate market trends by analyzing how mainline LLMs will invest. As retail investors will probably use mainline AI for decisions going forward , one could get an edge.

"The AI-driven Market Hypothesis"

Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

Given the training data isn’t that more a win for the wisdom of the crowd?

Paywall

Aren't forecasters already using 'artificial intelligence' for decades in the form of non-llm machine learning models?

  - forecasting = modeling = AI

The test is when reflexivity kicks in and the prediction itself changes market behavior. LLMs usually melt there

Archive Link: http://archive.today/IVreS

So I can guess the AI companies can stop with their plans to infest AI with ads and they'll instead fully fund themselves by using their AI to gamble on stocks and the prediction market right? Surely the chatbots will just print money!

At the risk of sounding extremely naieve i have a question for the Wall St / quant / HFT folks lurking here ... but how hard would it actually be to brute force the math/algos behind Medallion Fund (or something in that general class) or even some of the average quant funds

I know it’s not just the math but execution, infrastructure, risk management, data, colocation (if ur an HFT) etc ... but LLMs seem like a pretty powerful apparatus for running experiments that .. a few years ago would have required fairly deep multidisplinary skills across coding .. stats .. and math ..

So assuming you have decent intuition for ideas .. how difficult would it actually be to reverseengineer / rediscover some of the underlying stuff?