I built a tool (https://1mil.app/hn) to help me test my intuition about various weird business ideas that were on my mind. Initially, I wanted to create a database with 1 million business ideas (hence the name - "1 million opportunities"). But turned out to be a dumb idea already. So instead I built this tool that returns only 10 ideas. It's all based on your input, market + your background.

The first release scored on demand only and it gave false confidence. So I rebuilt the the scoring around "winnability": can a solo founder with a specific background "win" against what already exists?

Heres what still bugs me: since winnability went live in June, it has scored 500+ ideas, and none reached 7/10. The best was 6.3 and the median is 1.3. That includes every scan I ran for myself.

My preliminary conclusion: most business ideas are improbable to win.

Well, go ahead and try the scanner, and let me know what you think. A free scan without an account is included. Each scan costs Vertex tokens, which is why the tool isn't free.