"So are we in an A.I. bubble? It sure looks like it to me. That doesn’t mean we won’t get large economic advances (and disruptions) out of A.I. "

This is the most plausible looking path forward: LLMs + conventional ML + conventional software inverts how our economy operates over the next few decades, but over the next few years a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money when the singularity is actually a sigmoid curve.

I suspect there is a substantial first mover disadvantage right now. The extreme investments will not be profitable, leading to the bubble bursting at some point in the not so distant future. This will lead to short term price increases for inference and slower innovation in a period, the tech will emerge more mature and stable etc.

As one who clearly see the huge potential of this tech this is an interesting outlook; make sure to make your products resilient to changing vendors and price hikes and it will probably be fine.

Side note: Google seems to be playing the long game..

I think any comment about an AI bubble needs to start by defining who the players are and how it affects them differently.

AI foundries, Nvidia, the hyperscalers, enterprise buyers of AI, consumers, the US, China, the rest of the world, startups, investors, FOSS, students, teachers, coders, lawyers, publishers, artists... each stand to win or lose in profoundly different ways.

Otherwise we all end up talking past each other.

The rare violation of Betteridge’s Law.

> Even my moderate view, though, is premised on the assumption that A.I. will continue to advance up the steep part of the sigmoid curve for a while before hitting one or another physical constraint that creates a new inflection point and slows advances further.

I feel like we've pretty much already hit a fundamental barrier in compute that is unlikely to be overcome in the near future barring a profound, novel algorithmic approach or an entirely novel computing model.

I do feel that AI has been overhyped a bit for now, but what happens when we scale our electricity and GPU production 10x, 100x, go nuclear etc and can 100x AI models - lets see. Its too early to tell really.

If other engineers are getting the productivity boost that I am from AI, then we are just scratching the surface of it's effect on the economy.

And if they aren't, then they will be soon enough.

Of course we are and I suspect there are also an absolutely absurd number of Ponzi schemes underway as well.