Apart from Nintendo, who has successfully partnered with Nvidia? Apple, Microsoft and Sony have all been burnt in the past.

No they do not. The article explains that Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are developing their own hardware and software for AI/HPC.

Google Gemini was not trained using CUDA or Nvidia hardware.

There’s maybe some wiggle room, in that these AI distributed systems might not (?) look like HPC/scientific computing systems—maybe they don’t need Infiniband style low latency. So these other funky networks might work.

But like, Nvidia has the good nodes and the good network. That’s a rough combination to compete against.

B2C is a hellish headache that has marginal returns if you are not B2C first, and the amount of investment needed to be B2C competent just isn't worth it when there are alternative options to invest in

> A LLM competitor service (Hey, how about you guys make your own chips

Already exists. AI Foundary

> They are already releasing an AI PC

It's just an OEM rehash

> Their own self driving cars

Not worth the headache and also losing customers like Google or Amazon due to competitive pressure

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Cannot reply: releasing their own "Nvidia Car" means they will lose their existing automotive partners becuase they will not spend on a competitor. Same reason Walmart stipulates EVERY tech vendor must decouple from AWS when selling to them.

WRT your edit: The answer to all of this is that it's very hard and requires a huge amount of investment to produce good vertical solutions in each of these spaces. You cannot build a good AI phone without first building a good phone. You cannot build a self-driving car without starting with a good car, etc. For robots, I'll point you to someone using Nvidia chips: the Matic is a complete ground-up rethink of how robot vacuums should work. It's taken them 7 years to get to early adopter phase.

Agreed, and for all the "price crash" I still can't just whip out my credit card and purchase an hour or two on an H100/B100.

It's still multi-year contracts and "Contact Sales".

It's a low margin business and would hurt the balance sheet more than the completely irrelevant revenue from a project like that.

I've been investing in semi for decades and what strikes me about this recent cycle is that so many don't seem to understand that semi is a highly cyclical business that is prone to commoditization waves and inventory/capacity overbuild.

And speaking as a trader, instead of reinforcing your firmly held base case, I'd strongly consider painting out the bear cases. Look at the roadmaps of the hyperscalers that are designing their own chips for internal use, etc. And never use the word faith when it comes to markets.

You could easily see NVIDIAs margins get chopped down, and see the multiple re-rate lower from here. Actually, I'd argue the name is well on the way down this path already.

It's almost guaranteed to happen sooner or later. Semi down cycles are usually brutal for semi equities.

That's not to say it isn't a great company. It's certainly not a Buffett name though.

Anyway, maybe marvell should focus more on the the consumer side since hobbyists seem to be building crazy ai rigs and likely needs drives, at the very least, for models. It sort of seems like hobbyists are devouring any worthy gpu that gets produced.

Gaming is only 7% of Nvidia's revenue.

They are losing their biggest customers to custom in-house silicon, and smaller orders are going to compete with a market being flooded by superfluous hardware from companies which either went bust due the the AI bubble shrinking, or went bust because they weren't able to compete with the big fish.

The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

I figure regardless of tariffs and competition and other fluctuations the demand for computing power will endlessly trend upwards and as much as we can produce will be consumed.

Good luck to you.