I'm surprised this isn't on the list.
It’d be good if we built more submarines, faster…
39-45:
- US, pop 130m, 40m Gross Tons. ~0.05m GT/m
2023:
- JP, 125m, 10m GT, ~0.08m GT/m (kind of in decline)
- SKR, 51m, 18m GT, ~0.35m GT/m (increasing in value)
- PRC, 1400m, 33 GT, ~0.02m GT/m (increasing++ in GT and value)
If modern US was serious as efficient as JP or SKR, it can do 30-120m GT per year. Meanwhile PRC casually building about entire 6 year US WW2 ship building program per year (2024 puts it close to 37m GT). But it's not out of question for US to be competitive in a few generations. But also kind of lulz that SKR peacetime ship building is like 7x more efficient than US during WW2.
i think it is - as in, if the need ever arises in a war, the loss would be far sooner than the time required for "competitiveness".
That is, of course, this new war is going to play out the same as the last one. But as with all history, it only rhymes.
I also doubt US built ships will ever be globally commercially competitive vs east asian builders (or whoever comes next), but the point is modern ship building has gotten efficient, and it's feasible for US to reshore enough ship building for domestic needs. I think for American's sake, it's illustrative to stop nostalgical pine for US WW2 ship building prowess, because it's really meagre compared to modern ship building scale.
Also be aware that if US WW2 shipping buildig dial was set to 10, PRC set the dial to not just 11, but 50. The consolation is it's very feasible for US to move dial from current 2 back to 10, perhaps even 20. And for US strategic interests (and ego) that's probably enough.
there is huge difference between building 1 x 500k GT container ship and 50 ships x 10k GT
About future sea based fighting - Ukrainian sea drones armed with Sidewinders have already shot down Russian helicopters and one Su-30 fighter (may be even 2).
https://www.twz.com/sea/aim-9-sidewinder-armed-ukrainian-dro...
A small sea battle between such a drone and a manned Russian fast light seacraft https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djKIu4gC_sQ The drone lost this time, yet one can clearly see potential if the drone were also armed with a small anti-ship missile or just a radar guided machine gun (or they may be organized in a pack where each drone carries one type of weaponry while still staying small and agile). The poor Russian Marines had really hard time and that against just one remotely controlled drone - when the drones become fully autonomous with more suitable weaponry, and attacking as a pack instead of alone, humans wouldn't stand a chance.
I’m ruminating about making some very cheap and simple anti drone systems - the idea is how to respond if say in a small regional theater an adversary launches a million of drones. Don’t see many working in that direction while it should be a large market soon.
Maybe robotics and AI can be combined to close the gap... Its just that all competitors will be able to do that too.
Then consider that much of the U.S. aligned shipbuilding happens in places like South Korea. There is no guarantee the U.S. will be able to purchase ships from South Korea during a war in Asia.
Then again, surface ships are quickly becoming obsolete with drones and hypersonic missiles.
If the U.S. wants to get ahead, they need to build submarine drone carriers as quickly as possible.
The only way this makes sense for people is if they are racists deep down and think that humans should compete like ant colonies.
Warfare is a total failure of management and society.
The human zoos of the future are not going to allow warfare or build up to it.
We have instantaneous global communication and translation.
Our modern peace is not from enlightenment but because war became too destructive. Peace should never be assumed.
jaqalopes•4h ago
cadamsdotcom•3h ago
Societies today have immense latent potential. So many people are doing bullshit jobs that tick things over, sitting there wishing to be put to use for some intrinsically motivating purpose. An existential threat - war - is a well known way to bring that out. But war is too destructive for modern tastes.
We've seen developing countries get great results by government directing private industry in stronger ways than we're used to in the West. For example China's regularly published national development priorities for the next 5 years. If you hew to these you'll be helped in various ways. Singapore's and South Korea's rises to global powers were helped along by government getting everyone to row in the same direction - among other things, I'm greatly simplifying. But to focus on this one idea, I hope you can agree that providing purpose through top-down leadership is a great way to harness societies' latent potential and mobilize in a given direction..
Rudderless, laissez-faire governance got the US a surprisingly long way. But we are seeing the resultant directionlessness leave leaders unable to agree on whether to tear up what's been built, leave it in place, or go some completely random direction.
It's not the ships that were built, it's what they represented. That was what got them built.
southernplaces7•3h ago
vkou•3h ago
refulgentis•3h ago
In their professional lives, they are Patriots Advancing American Independence.
The unquestioned Purpose is what enables the lack of care for others (that blossom in oh-so-many dangerous ways)
refulgentis•3h ago
We're a generation of men raised by Fight Club—I'm wondering if a self-induced mass-culling event is really the answer we need.
southernplaces7•3h ago
I do understand the needs of that particular war, The Nazis and Imperial Japan were truly invasive evils, big and globally dangerous enough to be worth fighting, even if it meant mass mobilization, but generally, there's no nostalgic beauty to such vast butchery, destruction and creation for the sake of destruction. I prefer finding my own purpose in life, and knowing that my children won't be ripped apart by artillery in some blood-soaked field of mud due to government decree.
stevenwoo•3h ago
southernplaces7•3h ago
mitthrowaway2•3h ago
zelphirkalt•3h ago
Or what we could achieve in terms of renewable energy, if we all were behind the goal. There are many examples that benefit society, but anti-social forces and influences are everywhere, delaying, stopping, and sabotaging our future.
0xDEAFBEAD•2h ago
>It is about the distribution of resources to reach goals. It would be quite easy for example to ensure, that every school meets some standards, enabling children to learn well.
In the US, educational spending went up massively without much improvement in outcomes:
https://slatestarcodex.com/blog_images/primary_scost.gif
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2015/mar/02/dave-brat/...
Small-government types like me aren't against good things. We just believe that it takes much more than simply throwing resources at a problem to solve it.
In my view, the "you're just against good things" finger-pointing merely gets in the way of a constructive discussion regarding what actually works.
Based on what I've read about WW2, the US was able to rapidly mobilize because it had great leadership at the time. We're not able to mobilize in the same way nowadays because our government leadership sucks. The civic culture is weaker (in part due to political polarization, and also demoralization due to our failures in Vietnam, Iraq, etc.). There's lots of anti-Americanism in America nowadays. Even the right has become anti-American. (Arguably, that's a good thing if it gets us in fewer wars!) And politicians seem to care more about signalling to their constituents that "something is being done" rather than actually succeeding at the thing.
Salaries are higher and projects are more exciting in the private sector. US multinationals are growing fast, and starving the US government of the brilliant, hardworking individuals that would be needed for the government to do awesome stuff. The government turns those people off due to red tape, lower salaries, and a generally bad working environment. I graduated from one of the top universities in the US, and I don't remember talking to any student who even considered working for the government.
roenxi•3h ago
The US isn't getting poor outcomes from their manufacturing sector because people are divided, but because the US has policies tending towards deindustrialisation and there is a broad political consensus to keep them. Ban the smokestacks, ban the smokestack economy and enjoy the clean air.
divbzero•3h ago
[1]: https://www.history.com/articles/japanese-american-relocatio...
[2]: https://encyclopedia.densho.org/Homicide_in_camp/
Duwensatzaj•2h ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niihau_incident
rayiner•2h ago
That is non-responsive to the point raised by OP. That had little effect on Americans unless they were the small minority of Japanese. The point OP raised is much more salient. If we end up in another World War, what lessons do you want to have from the past? “Don’t put racial minorities in internment camps” is well and good, but it won’t help you build a giant navy and win a war.
I learned con law from a social studies PhD who had little interest in the constitution, and focused the entire class on this or that minoritized or oppressed group. It’s a terrible way to learn constitutional law—or anything else—because you over-focus on the 20% of the story while missing the big picture about how the country was actually designed to work.
01HNNWZ0MV43FF•2h ago
rayiner•2h ago
bcrosby95•1h ago
rayiner•11m ago
wat10000•1h ago
But the main lesson I'd want to take is to shut down strong aggressors early, then you don’t need to run a massive war production program in the first place.
Judging by Ukraine, we seem to have learned this lesson but not very well.
bluGill•2h ago
brandonmenc•2h ago
bluGill•1h ago
GuardianCaveman•1h ago
You can be amazed at the output and the point of the article without turning this into yet another guilt post about how bad America is. What we did was wrong. But also, we stopped the nazis and the japanese and the italians. the war in the pacific killed 15-20 million chinese civilians, and I won't even go into the other theaters or the war crimes of the japanese or the axis powers (nothing to do with the internment). But maybe whatever the opposite of rose tinted glasses is the way you're viewing the wars.
And no, no amount of good by US forces justifies or absolves us of the sin of the japanese internment but maybe some credit is due at least.
jonstewart•3h ago
0xDEAFBEAD•2h ago
Spooky23•2h ago
Of course, the poison of social media took care of that in short order. FDR cracked down hard on misuse of the airwaves and the extremists for a reason.
khuey•1h ago
FpUser•1h ago
Sure. Food rationing, mass poverty, inability to do anything but prescribed work, mass hysteria. All things to look forward to.
GuardianCaveman•1h ago