Step 2. Train the RL network. In the mean time drink coffee or work on plan of world domination.
This article suggests scaling up RL by exposing models to thousands of environments
I think we can already achieve something similar by chaining multiple agents:
1. A “requirement” agent that uses browser tools to craft detailed specs from docs.
2. A coding agent that sets up environments (Docker, build tools) via browser or CLI.
3. A testing agent that validates code against specs, again through tooling.
4. A feedback loop where the tester guides the coder based on results.
Put together, this system becomes a fully autonomous development pipeline-especially for small projects. In practice, I’ve left my machine running overnight, and these agents propose new features, implement them, run tests, and push to repo once they pass. It works surprisingly well.
The main barrier is cost—spinning up many powerful models is expensive. But on a modest scale, this method is remarkably effective.
what
99% of the time their reasoning is laughable. Or even if their reasoning is on the right track, they often just ignore it in the final answer, and do the stupid thing anyway.
The result is a 2x2 matrix where several quadrants are deeply concerning to me.
I give you a 2x2x2 matrix.
I fully believe that LLMs encode enormous amounts of knowledge (some of which is even correct, and much of which their operator does not personally possess), are capable of working quickly and ingesting large amounts of data and working quickly, and have essentially no judgment or particularly strong intelligence of the non-memorized sort. This can still be very valuable!
Maybe this will change over the next few years, and maybe it won’t. I’m not at all convinced that scraping the bottom of the barrel for more billions and trillions of low-quality training tokens will help much.
It's not even a different strategy. It's just using rhetoric in a more limited way, and without human emotion.
These are style over substance machines. Their cognitive abilities are extremely ragged and unreliable - sometimes brilliant, sometimes useless, sometimes wrong.
But we give them the benefit of the doubt because they hide behind grammatically correct sentences that appear to make sense, and we're primed to assume that language = sentience = intelligence.
I very much disagree. For the larger, more sophisticated stuff that runs our world, it is not cost that prohibits wide and deep automation. It's deeply sophisticated and constrained requirements, highly complex existing behaviors that may or may not be able to change, systems of people who don't always hold the information needed, usually wildly out of date internal docs that describe the system or even how to develop for it, and so on.
Agents are nowhere near capable of replacing this, and even if they were, they'd change it differently in ways that are often undesirable or illegal. I get that there's this fascination with "imagine if it were good enough to..." but it's not, and the systems AI must exist in are both vast and highly difficult to navigate.
I'd argue the opposite of your stance: we've never had a chance at a fresh start without destruction, but agents (or their near-future offspring) can hold our entire systems "in nemory", and therefore might be our only chance at a redo without literally killing ourselves to get there.
Additionally, I disagree with your point:
> The status quo system you describe isn't objectively optimal.
On the basis that I would challenge you or anyone to judge what is objectively optimal. Google Search is a wildly complex system, an iceberg or rules on top of rules specifically because it is a digital infrastructure surrounding an organic system filled with a diverse group of people with ever-changing preferences and behaviors. What, exactly, would be optimal here?
Yes this resonates completely. I think many are forgetting the purpose of formal language and code was because natural language has such high ambiguity that it doesn't capture complex behavior
LLMs are great at interpolating between implicit and unsaid requirements but whether their interpolation matches your mental model is a dice throw
OK, but then you have to produce the detailed specification, working backward from the reference implementation. This is extremely non-trivial and it significantly weakens the TFA's parallels to pre-training, in which you don't need really need inputs other than raw text corpora.
I'm not saying this eliminates the idea outright, but I do think it hobbles it badly.
And you can use a fuzzer to augument that.
I’d propose the following architecture:
Step 1: Microsoft phi style - read code and write specifications using a frontier model. You could use an ensemble here to nitpick the spec; it’s only going to get written once. We also have of course many many rfcs and codebases that conform to them or where they do not we have an existing repository of bug reports, patches, forum complaints, etc.
Step 2-4: implement multilayer evaluation: does it compile? Does an existing model think the code complies with the spec on inspection? When it’s run on qemu are the key evals the same as the original software?
I propose most of steps 2-4 are automatable and rely on existing tooling and provide a framework that is, if not cheap, achievable. I’m also sure someone could improve this plan with a few more minutes of thought.
To me the interesting question is - will this add capabilities at current model sizes? My prior is yes in that the current behemoth size models feel like they are only incrementally better than 1/10 size distills. I interpret that to mean we haven’t gotten the most out of these larger scales. I will note Dario disagrees on this - he’s publicly said we need at least 10x more scale than we have now.
It's very hard to define (in way to create lints) what makes core readable and maintainable. Using other LLM for this task could cause original model to game the system by abusing some weaknesses in the other model.
for other tasks, how do you even evaluate thinks like eg user experience/app design? how to properly evaluate pelican ridding bicycle?
These kind of "rookie mistakes" are not things that any modern LLM is likely to do. Indeed, I had to argue quite strongly with Gemini recently when I was learning a new tool (so basically just playing around with a fully local setup) and I hardcoded an API key then tried to commit it. The LLM did NOT like that! I had to carefully explain that this was a toy repo.
The argument against this (by Gemini) was that toy repos often grow into production tools so it's best to follow basic security rules from the start. Which, to be fair, is a good argument. I still committed the key though (and deleted the repo a day or so later).
The core claim that massive-scale RL will unlock generalization doesn't seem that surprising since we've seen the scaling hypothesis play out across ML. But "replication training" on software is interesting: learning by copying existing programs potentially unlocks a ton of complex training data with objective evaluation criteria.
To me, the big unanswered question is whether skills learned from replicating software would generalize to other reasoning tasks. That's a significant "if" - great if it works, pointless if it doesn't.
It would "work" but I think it will need even more scrutiny by experts to confirm what's correct and what needs to be re-generated. Please please no vibe accounting.
Funny you mention; There are multiple companies in Sweden working on AI/ML based accounting. It's not so different from AI/ML based automated driving.
* reading and understanding long, complicated, detailed instructions,
* executing those instructions meticulously and precisely, without errors,
* noticing its mistakes, if there are any along the way, and recovering from them,
* not settling prematurely for solutions that look "good enough" but aren't, and
* undertaking large, complicated projects which previously could be completed only by teams of human experts.
There's a good chance the OP is right, in my view.
We sure live in interesting times!
>Each replication task consists of a detailed specification and a reference implementation. The central idea is that AI models are trained to produce an implementation that precisely matches the reference behavior.
I really don't see the connection from the statements in the article's content, and the assertion near the start that:
>Doing this effectively will produce RL models with strong few-shot, task-agnostic abilities capable of quickly adapting to entirely new tasks.
There's no clear reason outlined in the piece to describe why narrow & well-scoped 1-person-day tasks might scale up to 10,000-person-year projects. If they did, we should expect far more 10,000-person-year projects in the real economy, because the learning curve for firms scaling would be something approximating a straight line. There are very few 10,000-person-year projects, and very many 1-person-day projects.
It seems more like this will spend an unimaginable amount of compute, in order to produce models which are incredibly good at a very precise form of IP theft, and not especially good at any generalisable skills. It's so ludicrously rare that an engineer (or author, illustrator, etc) is tasked with "create a pixel-perfect reimplementation of this existing tool".
A smell big success? Copyright laundering is the killer app of AI this far.
criemen•6h ago
What I don't necessarily see is the generalization factor - say, we improve software engineering and math performance through RL learning (probably easier for software engineering than math due to available training corpus). If that generalization factor doesn't hold, due the economics still work out? An expert-level software model would be useful to our profession, sure, but would it be enough to recoup the training costs if it's not applicable to other industries?