I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.

Especially so for the consumers living in the bombed areas

A few critical items beyond oil are also now in short supply:

Fertilizer, which is kind of important right now since it's springtime and farmers are planting crops around the world.

Plastic, without which modern hospitals can't operate.

Aluminum.

The list goes on, this was the dumbest war in our lifetimes but it's the culmination of a lot of previous stupidity that made it all possible.

The people who started this war are authoritarians and, let's be honest, straight up criminals, who did it to entrench their grip on their own domestic politics.

Its a good thing. Good opportunity to push electrification of everything and ditch oil for good. I hope it keeps pushing oil prices up.

You got inflation under control? Must be nice…

I thought you run your favela-rovers on sugarcane gasohol?

I’m probably missing some subtext or sarcasm here but because they don’t have ICBMs to reach the US?

Even if they could I don't think they would. It is not in their interest. Their target selection does make sense from their point of view and it has been a restrained and capability constrained tit for tat.

For now all they seem to want is to have a financially viable future as an independent country, not as anybody's vassal, not as a country for other superpowers to play games for geopolitical reasons. Essentially to control their own destiny.

That was scuttled in 1953. Their civilian aircraft was shot down without apology. Saddam Hussein was foisted against them. They pulled through 8 years of wars that saw attacks with chemical weapons to which they lost several tens of thousands lives.

If they do not like the people who have messed with them, I cannot say that their feelings are unjustified.

I am not even Iranian.

To state the obvious:

1) It is not clear that the people of Iran actually want to blow up refineries in general right now, but living in an autocracy they don't have much of a choice.

2) Because there is a pretty big ocean between them and most American civilians/infrastructure (this also enabled past colonial powers to wage war very pretty cost effectively and at their convenience). I'd like to argue that the prospect of retribution on home soil is important to stem aggressive wars, but at least for medieval Europe this apparently did not work that well either.

And it's important to not that until that point, both the US and Israel had not been attacking any of the Iranian production and export infrastructure, only some depots (and refineries?) for domestic use.

The current price for crude oil does not correctly price in either:

- things end in the next 2-3 weeks and then get back to normal

- this goes on past 6-8 weeks, and stockpiles run out

The first would argue for a modest price increase, the second a somewhat unpredictable, but very severe price increase with hard to understand second order impacts.

So, the price is some weighted version of these two, based on traders estimates of what is most likely. And of course, these estimates can change quickly as events unfold, which is why the price can move so fast, despite no immediate impact to supply "on the ground".

Whoa hold your brush. US admin agency over wars that affect oil prices was very different in 2022 compared to 2026.

It seems highly unlikely that the US will magically have trains and more walk-able living because gas is unaffordable. Especially if it was a drastic and sudden shock of supply. Myself as much as anyone is not in favor of the reliance the US has on cars and non-renewable energy, but causing chaos is not the way to do it.

So you are wishing harm on Americans? Why?

Wish this comment could be pinned.

I’m not sure if enriching 500 kg of uranium to 60% purity while claiming that Israel should be wiped off the map is “not starting anything” Strictly speaking, of course..

> After Israel attacked gasfields and Iran retaliated

That timeline is incorrect. Iran attacked nearby countries oil and gas since the 2nd day of the war. So, from the get go. (Not to mention closing the Strait of Hormuz, and attacking random oil tankers).

Israel/US started the War, Iran was the first to use oil/gas as a weapon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war

is israel a US proxy? that's feeling a little backward right now.

It would make sense if there was mostly inelastic demand for 80% of current production. I'm not sure if that is the case, but it might be. There is a lot of usage with no good substitute.

I had this thought as well. But oil prices are set globally on the exchanges, even oil that never leaves the US is affected.

Oil demand is mostly inelastic. No matter how much or how little is produced, those who need it NEED it, so they'll compete with all others who similarly need it. The richest ones from among them get the oil first, and the poorest get nothing. The end price ends up being a function of how much oil is available versus how much the richest countries' absolutely irreducibly need for oil is versus how much wealth those countries can throw at the problem not to be left without before someone else with deeper pockets gets it.

I agree. Why is domestic oil linked to global oil price?

We are energy independent? Big Oil is milking US.

If you had a secret agenda to reduce the world's carbon production, this is one way to go about it.