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The old world of tech is dying and the new cannot be born

https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2026/the-old-world-of-tech-is-dying/
51•speckx•1h ago

Comments

gegtik•25m ago
thank you
metalman•25m ago
the only thing suffering here, is language. things, no matter how vigorously anthomorphisized, can niether die, or be born.
krapp•12m ago
Things can die and be born. The usage of those terms in relation to non-living entities and absent a description of biological progeny and senescence has been commonplace in English for centuries. For instance, the "birth" of a new era, or the "death" of disco.

You may find it easier to function in modern society without having such a strictly literal view of language. Idioms and metaphors do exist.

wongarsu•6m ago
This has to be trolling. You can't claim in one sentence that language is suffering, then in the next claim that only living beings can die or be born. How is abstract concepts suffering fine, but abstract concepts dying isn't?
spinel•18m ago
I knew the old world was lying to us when I saw what happened to Michael O. Church. Freedom of expression, unless you challenge the people at the top of the ladder. Then they erase and try to murder you.

And now there's evidence that Epstein was behind the prosecution of Swartz. He knew the man was onto something.

The authoritarianism is only more obvious. No one bothers to hide it. The social irresponsibility ramps up and up. Genocide in Burma? The cost of social connection. The cost of freedom.

At some point, it all breaks. No one knows what happens next. Models smooth reality, but reality, at some point, detests smoothness enough to become pointed.

an0malous•18m ago
I haven’t seen something on HN so well written and insightful in many, many years. Everyone here should read this.
spinel•8m ago
There was someone who said ten or fifteen years ago that these trillion-dollar issues weren't technology companies but technology control companies. It's been in my mind ever since.
vanuatu•17m ago
It's hard for me to reconcile this piece with my personal experience as someone who works in AI and knows many others that do

The demand for AI is currently overwhelming. As in, can't build data centers and GPUs melting overwhelming, companies growing 3x in a month while already at multi-billion revenues.

The models get better and better, Chinese open source is falling further and further behind American companies. The productivity gains are, at this point, obvious. The best talent works (or wants to work) in America and get compensated obscene amounts, the most capital flows through America, this is still by far the best place to start a technology business in the world

I think American technology was on the decline for the past few years before LLMs, but for the foreseeable future as long as American companies control the talent flywheel I think the new world of tech is going to be much more American than before.

spinel•14m ago
What's often understated is how much of an advantage the US has because it speaks the language of global commerce and technology, which for the entire 20th century and the first quarter of the 21st has been English. That's huge. It means teenagers reading man pages are reading fluently.

At some point, though, the balance could tip. It's impossible to say, and it'd be irresponsible to try to predict it, but there isn't any reason English is natively superior, any more than French was 150 years ago, or Latin 600 years ago. But it's a major advantage the US has that isn't acknowledged often enough.

vanuatu•7m ago
I think English is definitely a reason that I took for granted. To add to that from my experience:

- The culture is, I think, the root of the flywheel. The entrepreneurship and competitive intensity is unlike anywhere else I've lived (not an American). It's okay to go bankrupt. It's okay to fail multiple times and burn millions in VC money, in fact it's encouraged! Take a break and raise another round and go again, VCs like second time founders. In my home country having one business go under is the worst thing imaginable.

- The capital markets, even YC (one of the lower tier accelerators by now) gives you 500k for 7%, sometimes pre-revenue. That is an absurd proposition elsewhere

- Surrounding yourself with top talent raises the ceiling for what you think is possible and accelerates your career really fast. It's inspiring for me to be around so many smart and successful people.

andor•5m ago
He's not denying that there is demand, he just has a different view on what's happening:

When developers say that LLMs make them more productive, you need to keep in mind that this is what they’re automating: dysfunction, tampering as a design strategy, superstition-driven coding, and software whose quality genuinely doesn’t matter, all in an environment where rigour is completely absent.

They are right. LLMs make work that doesn’t matter easier – it’s all monopolies, subscriptions, VCs, and lock-in anyway – in an industry that doesn’t care, where the only thing that’s measured is some bullshit productivity measure that’s completely disconnected from outcomes.

...

One group thinks this will make the world ten times richer. The other thinks it’ll be a catastrophe.

(from an earlier post, https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2026/the-two-worlds-of-progr...)

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https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2026/the-old-world-of-tech-is-dying/
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