The Strait of Hormuz is a such a historical f-up. 1) It cuts the oil supply 2) It creates the demand and infrastructure for non-US backed Oil 3) It gives Iran a revenue stream and domain over taxing the Strait where none existed before 4) Crypto happens outstide of reach of most sanctions 5) Not knowing your footing: This has now encompassed the placement of underseas cables and global connectivity 5) As time goes one, there are other shoes that will drop 6) Even if this resolves, things like decoupling the USD and Oil now have momemntum.
tjwebbnorfolk•35m ago
You're taking this claim way too seriously. Iran is at war. This part of the information war. Nobody is going to pay fees to Iran to use internet cables.
LurkandComment•32m ago
See in an information war, it doesn't have to be true to be dangerous, and never assume how stock prices might effect people's resileance. The greater point is there are cans of worms that are opening that weren't anticipated. This is just one example;].
csoups14•31m ago
This was all theory before the war. Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage.
tjwebbnorfolk•27m ago
They can make all the demands they want. I can demand you give me a thousand bitcoin to not burn your house down. That doesn't mean it has any remote chance of happening.
JumpCrisscross•26m ago
> Now Iran knows they can blockade that Strait and makes these demands so they have much more leverage
Tehran has more potential leverage inasmuch as they've credibly demonstrated they can block the Strait. Whether they have more actual leverage than before is uncertain–trade flows are routing around them. And their own shores remain blockaded. (Just because the U.S. has less leverage than it did before doesn't mean Iran necessarily has more.)
gmerc•17m ago
It’s not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia if they please, right?
JumpCrisscross•14m ago
> not like they can shut down the main air corridor to Asia
"Shut down" is not particularly accurate. America and Europe can route around. The only ones fucked are the Gulf carriers.
gowld•30m ago
What is nobody going to do if Iran military cuts cables?
Or blocks repair ships after normal accidental damage?
tjwebbnorfolk•24m ago
I imagine they'll be able to cut exactly one cable before the US starts bombing them again. If my goal is to profit from subsea cables I don't own, getting bombed doesn't sound like a great strategy if I'm Iran.
It's information war to scare US companies away from the middle east.
10000truths•25m ago
What's to stop Iran from using the threat of cutting those cables as leverage? A speedboat and a depth charge are all it takes, and neither are particularly difficult to make.
tjwebbnorfolk•21m ago
> What's to stop Iran
What's to stop them? The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one...
JumpCrisscross•19m ago
> The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one
Probably not. The other comment is right: cutting cables means having its own cables cut. (Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself. Trashing e.g. Kuwait for shits and giggles isn't strategically productive.)
nonethewiser•11m ago
Appeasement doesnt stop it, that's for sure. They would still be free to do it.
gosub100•1m ago
The problem is that you can only do it once.
smallmancontrov•30m ago
Starting a war with Iran without filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at $60/bbl was truly special.
juvoly•5m ago
The Iran regime was obviously going to be a push over.
Not the first forever war initiated as a Blitzkrieg. Not the last either.
krunck•26m ago
1) Oman and Iran both have territorial waters that extend into the center of the strait. See #3
2) What is "non-US backed oil?
3) Every country has the right to control their territorial waters.
4) Governments have worked hard to erode people's privacy rights such that crypto is not as untraceable as people still think.
5) ?
5) ?
6) Let it happen.
pessimizer•3m ago
These objections seem confused. The person you are replying to is not attacking Iran, but you seem to be defending Iran. They're saying that attacking Iran was a stupid idea, because it caused Iran to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, a thing they hadn't done and that there was no indication that they were considering doing before the attack.
It's even stupider than the OP said. Aside from the strait, when you destroy Iran's oil facilities, you raise the price of oil for the foreseeable future. When Iran retaliates by destroying the oil facilities of local allies, it raises the price of oil for the foreseeable future. The only beneficiaries are oilmen in the US, Russia and South America, and the US is also supposed to be attacking Russia and South America.
epistasis•8m ago
The US has never looked, or been, weaker than it is right now.
It was Jimmy Carter that established that the Strait of Hormuz would stay open, through the strength of the US military threat.
And now? The US is a paper tiger, making ridiculous threats via barely used social media platforms and then revoking them with just as little formality.
The US used to be a guarantor of safety on the seas. That appears to have been completely destroyed by the weak leadership in the US.
jmyeet•7m ago
It was clear from very early on that this war was (IMHO) the largest strategic blunder in US history and it's not even close. Prior to this, closing the Strait was an untested threat. This war forced Iran to prove they can in fact close the Strait and there's nothing the largest military on Earth can do about it. Well done, everybody, the system works.
The one point I'll disagree with is that sanctions do prevent you paying Iran even with crypto. I mean, you can fund your own wallet and give money to Iran but you've technically committed a crime and a pretty serious one. It's also one that's fairly easy to document and prove that you did it.
Oh, also the impact of cutting the world fertilizer supply hasn't hit yet. That'll come later in the year when the harvests are down, primarily in the Global South. This will also impact food prices in the West so look forward to that.
Your last comment suggests weakening of the petrodollar. I don't know if you meant it this way but let me dispel that myth: the USD doesn't have strength and power because oil sales are denominated in dollars. You have it backwards. Oil trades are denominated in dollars because of the demand for dollars and the root of that is the US military.
alwaysdoit•39m ago
Aren't US citizens and corporations prohibited from paying anything to Iran due to sanctions?
throw03172019•38m ago
Crypto.
aetch•38m ago
Only if you’re not in the club
nwatson•37m ago
In letter and spirit, yes. If you're in the club, no.
JumpCrisscross•25m ago
> If you're in the club, no
Evidence folks in the U.S. leadership are "paying antyhing to Iran"?
nonethewiser•18m ago
Can you substantiate this?
mrjay42•38m ago
2€/MB :(
CommanderData•34m ago
Completely avoidable and optional btw.
Thanks Trump and Bibi! The whole world suffers for these two men.
bilekas•27m ago
It's fine guys, the DOW is at 50k.
Hamuko•24m ago
Looking at the map, I am failing to understand why any of the named American Big Tech companies would risk breaking sanctions to protect these cables. Why not just threaten your neighbouring countries instead? They have some skin in the game.
woah•19m ago
Iran's chief strategy in this war seems to be to harm Iraq and Saudi Arabia
nonethewiser•14m ago
Basically. Strong country attacks weak country. Weak country can't fight back against strong country so they attack other weak countries hoping they can get enough negative feedback to strong country. And seek sympathy from people in strong country.
mock-possum•12m ago
Hurt people hurt people?
nonethewiser•10m ago
I guess. I think the dynamic is different though. Iran attacking bystanders is more strategic than what that adage normally refers to in my opinion.
znnajdla•6m ago
Not quite. Saudi Arabia is a base for US operations.
adrr•7m ago
Why would they want to harm Iraq? Iraq is mostly Shia who identity with Iran. Their only real military force is Iranian backed Shia militias which led to some interesting things like US bombing Iraqi military installations. More interesting is the media never covered all the American A10s strafing Iraq government installations in Iraq.
tcdent•15m ago
Article claims this primarily affects US tech companies. Then refuses to elaborate on who and how.
LurkandComment•41m ago
tjwebbnorfolk•35m ago
LurkandComment•32m ago
csoups14•31m ago
tjwebbnorfolk•27m ago
JumpCrisscross•26m ago
Tehran has more potential leverage inasmuch as they've credibly demonstrated they can block the Strait. Whether they have more actual leverage than before is uncertain–trade flows are routing around them. And their own shores remain blockaded. (Just because the U.S. has less leverage than it did before doesn't mean Iran necessarily has more.)
gmerc•17m ago
JumpCrisscross•14m ago
"Shut down" is not particularly accurate. America and Europe can route around. The only ones fucked are the Gulf carriers.
gowld•30m ago
Or blocks repair ships after normal accidental damage?
tjwebbnorfolk•24m ago
It's information war to scare US companies away from the middle east.
10000truths•25m ago
tjwebbnorfolk•21m ago
What's to stop them? The enormous pile of ordnance floating in the gulf of oman that can be easily dropped on Tehran, for one...
JumpCrisscross•19m ago
Probably not. The other comment is right: cutting cables means having its own cables cut. (Tehran is also probably weighing whether it wants to continue mobilising almost all of its neighbors against itself. Trashing e.g. Kuwait for shits and giggles isn't strategically productive.)
nonethewiser•11m ago
gosub100•1m ago
smallmancontrov•30m ago
juvoly•5m ago
Not the first forever war initiated as a Blitzkrieg. Not the last either.
krunck•26m ago
pessimizer•3m ago
It's even stupider than the OP said. Aside from the strait, when you destroy Iran's oil facilities, you raise the price of oil for the foreseeable future. When Iran retaliates by destroying the oil facilities of local allies, it raises the price of oil for the foreseeable future. The only beneficiaries are oilmen in the US, Russia and South America, and the US is also supposed to be attacking Russia and South America.
epistasis•8m ago
It was Jimmy Carter that established that the Strait of Hormuz would stay open, through the strength of the US military threat.
And now? The US is a paper tiger, making ridiculous threats via barely used social media platforms and then revoking them with just as little formality.
The US used to be a guarantor of safety on the seas. That appears to have been completely destroyed by the weak leadership in the US.
jmyeet•7m ago
The one point I'll disagree with is that sanctions do prevent you paying Iran even with crypto. I mean, you can fund your own wallet and give money to Iran but you've technically committed a crime and a pretty serious one. It's also one that's fairly easy to document and prove that you did it.
Oh, also the impact of cutting the world fertilizer supply hasn't hit yet. That'll come later in the year when the harvests are down, primarily in the Global South. This will also impact food prices in the West so look forward to that.
Your last comment suggests weakening of the petrodollar. I don't know if you meant it this way but let me dispel that myth: the USD doesn't have strength and power because oil sales are denominated in dollars. You have it backwards. Oil trades are denominated in dollars because of the demand for dollars and the root of that is the US military.