Declining America

https://www.tbray.org/ongoing/When/202x/2026/05/19/Declining-America

93•AndrewDucker•1h ago

Comments

LogicFailsMe•49m ago

Elections have consequences.

jmclnx•46m ago

yes and the results and actions taken after the Nov 6 US elections may undo some of the damage. But no other country will ever trust the foreign policy of the US no matter what happens.

sscaryterry•45m ago

This. Once bitten, twice shy

throwaway-blaze•44m ago

K. Wake me when they have the means to defend themselves. Until then they can distrust the foreign policy of the US but they'll be living with it.

smaudet•42m ago

Oh, don't worry, the way it's going other countries will be fast motivated to defend themselves from said foreign policy...or perish.

etchalon•40m ago

It's absolutely shocking how many people believe other countries lack the means to defend themselves.

EB-BarringtonII•36m ago

US protection can be valuable, but US dependence is dangerous.

The world is moving on.

HerbManic•25m ago

It is a combination of moving fast and slow. A lot of Canadians now avoid purchasing products from the US were possible. Mean while their government while still dependent on the US is making the moves that will minimise their dependence on them over the coming decades.

I am seeing similar positions in other countries now.

rockskon•41m ago

Never say never.

Germany seems to have recovered quite a lot of trust following World War 2, to provide an extreme example of bad foreign policy.

iamtheworstdev•38m ago

they're also on the cusp of throwing it all away, again.

HerbManic•35m ago

It is wild seeing the elctorial maps of Germany and you can almost exactly recreate the East-West split. Decades later and it is coming back to haunt them.

guyzero•37m ago

Do you think the US is going to have Nuremberg trials? Do you think there will be a deep national reckoning about what happened?

MisterTea•24m ago

Never say never.

> Do you think there will be a deep national reckoning about what happened?

About half of the people I know who voted for Trump this past election have deep regrets.

kakacik•34m ago

Through selfless deeds, hard work and admitting their failures to the fullest, for generations till now. Somehow I don't see that happening easily with american ego

dyauspitr•39m ago

I don’t think November 6 is going to be a reprieve. They have rigged the system so much that I don’t think it’s actually possible for the Democrats to make a comeback.

billfor•30m ago

If they lose it will be because they don’t track unfavorabilty ratings for your democrats as much as they do the current admin. It’s not enough (for moderates) to just say you hate the other guy.

dyauspitr•20m ago

The thing is a lot of people hate the other guy. It’s just that all this rigging just means they’re going to be disenfranchised.

GolfPopper•12m ago

Even if the Democrats do make a comeback, they have spent half a century demonstrating that they are an, at best, an inadequate counter to America's awful political tendencies.

HerbManic•37m ago

There is the military saying "Once is an accident, twice is an attack", this is how a lot of folks see it.

I think it is deeper, that these actions were taken at the top and a sizable amount of the people sided with them, that sends the message that the US cannot be trusted long term, it has become cultural. I get that it isnt a majority of people but it is big enough that it cannot be ignored.

boricj•22m ago

"We cannot leave the security of Europe in the hands of voters in Wisconsin every four years."

Not trusting the Americans was a French thing ever since De Gaulle. It just took the rest of the Europeans 50 years after his death to pick up on it.

HerbManic•12m ago

That is a brilliant line. And yes Emanuel Macron has been taking this treat seriously as he is very well versed on Da Gaulle.

He might not have the best domestic moves but when it comes to Geopolitics, he is all over it.

baggachipz•33m ago

> yes and the results and actions taken after the Nov 6 US elections may undo some of the damage

You're assuming that 1) the elections will actually occur on Nov 6, 2) the elections will be fair, and 3) that the winners of said elections would take action and actually enforce the rule of law.

I'm not confident in any of those.

HerbManic•27m ago

It will be interesting to see what happens. Many are hoping that there is a very strong turn out for the Democrat's so that any rigging cannot over come it, but this sounds like fan fiction to me. That said Trump hitting Iran may be the single biggest blunder of his political career, media influence can only go so far when there is a direct impact on all prices and potential stock availability in the coming months.

Hopefully a lot of the fears don't pan out but we won't know until it gets closer.

I'm not saying that there aren't better options but both major parties are complicit in how the system is organised. The US electoral system gets ever more distorted with every minor adjustment in the hopes of swinging various seats in their favour and now it just looks ridiculous.

cyanydeez•35m ago

no one thought the consequences would include giving 1.8 billion dollars of American taxes to the people who tried to violently overthrow the government and to those who are successfully leading a bloodless coupe.

Well, most people, obviously.

GolfPopper•19m ago

The election outcome itself was the consequence of gross, systemic failure throughout the entirety of the United States' citizenry, society, institutions, and government.

The best thing for the States to do at this point would be to hold a Constitutional Convention and dissolve the government of the United States as unfit for any purpose, after which their citizens can decide how they wish to proceed.

ponkyrisen•10m ago

Or you could just leave... unless of course you're one of those foreign readers of HN completely consumed by American politics.

throwaway-blaze•45m ago

Nothing better than moral preening by our northern neighbors. "I won't engage with interesting people in a country whose leadership I don't like"...talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

Also love he thinks his social media posts will cause him to be sent to a gulag at the border crossing.

Underphil•42m ago

Whether it would happen or not is immaterial. The perceived threat is enough. I've been here on a green card since 2016 and haven't left the country since his second term since I share the exact same fears.

nchmy•40m ago

People - Canadians included - have literally been sent to a gulag at the border crossing, for social media posts and otherwise. Can you really not see why that would cause someone to not want to enter?

Moreover, he literally said he continues to be a supporter of that org.

throwawaypath•35m ago

>for social media posts

That was fake news, didn't happen.

kesor•34m ago

People have been sent to the gulag by the Canadian government as well, not too long ago. Governments are disgusting.

HerbManic•14m ago

Terrance McKenna once said something like "The worst government is the one in power, regardless of the time."

Essentially, regardless of who is in, they rarely teardown the injustices of the past but merely build on them. They will rip out like 20% of things that are socially changing but after that it is a ratchet upwards on things that cement in further power.

fylo•33m ago

I believe the UK is doing a similar thing with regards to social media posts.

bediger4000•26m ago

How is that relevant? He wasn't invited to an unconference in the UK.

dsr_•39m ago

Don't be ridiculous. The US operates gulags in other countries, so that they don't have to pretend to follow our own laws.

etchalon•38m ago

Plenty of people have had their social media posts result in extended detention by our border security.

cdrnsf•36m ago

People have already been harassed for social media posts and citizens have been murdered in broad daylight simply for observing law enforcement.

simonw•36m ago

> Also love he thinks his social media posts will cause him to be sent to a gulag at the border crossing.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/a...

> Effective March 30, the Department of State will expand online presence review to include applicants in the following additional nonimmigrant visa classifications [...] To facilitate this vetting, all applicants for A-3, C-3 (if a domestic worker), G-5, H-3, H-4 dependents of H-3, K-1, K-2, K-3, Q, R-1, R-2, S, T, U, H-1B, H-4, F, M, and J nonimmigrant visas are instructed to adjust the privacy settings on all of their social media profiles to “public” or “open.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/19/trump-musk-f...

> A French scientist was denied entry to the US this month after immigration officers at an airport searched his phone and found messages in which he had expressed criticism of the Trump administration, said a French minister. [...]

> The same source said that messages discussing the Trump administration’s treatment of scientists had been found. The researcher was reportedly then accused of writings “that reflect hatred toward Trump and can be described as terrorism”.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/15/austr...

> An Australian man who was detained upon arrival at Los Angeles airport and deported back to Melbourne says United States border officials told him it was due to his writing on pro-Palestine protests by university students.

throwawaypath•27m ago

>A French scientist was denied entry to the US this month after immigration officers at an airport searched his phone and found messages in which he had expressed criticism of the Trump administration

That was fake news.

“The French researcher in question was in possession of confidential information on his electronic device from Los Alamos National Laboratory — in violation of a nondisclosure agreement — something he admitted to taking without permission and attempted to conceal,”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/21/world/europe/us-france-sc...

etchalon•19m ago

The only evidence we have it was fake news is a statement from the Department of Homeland Security itself - a department which has been repeatedly caught lying in courts of law under this administration.

But I'm sure the statement they gave to a journalist, which hasn't been confirmed by any third-party reporting, was absolutely factual.

andyjohnson0•30m ago

> "I won't engage with interesting people in a country whose leadership I don't like"

I dont know where you got that quote from, but it doesnt occur in the submitted blog post.

It seems to me that the important actual quote is:

"I’m Canadian and as a matter of principle feeling negative about visiting a neighboring country whose leader has repeatedly threatened our sovereignty and shown massive disrespect for our nationhood."

I live in Europe and I agree with the author's misgivings.

Felger•41m ago

Relativity is the key factor.

Europe is declining even faster.

siliconc0w•35m ago

EU equities outperformed US in 2025. The Iran war will probably shift this back to the US but launching a new poorly defined war (and arguably losing it) is also a pretty good indicator of decline.

smileson2•41m ago

Weird way to frame the hottest nation in the world

fuddle•40m ago

TIL a new word - "boosterism"

L-boog•36m ago

Weren't you fine taking money from the oligarchs for years? Why the change of heart? Employees working in overheated warehouses without bathroom breaks didn't bother you at all when the USD was flowing into your account.

kesor•35m ago

What a prick. I hate this guy, and I hate that guy, and I hate all those guys too. But I do love your organization, because you probably hate the same people I hate, so we're buddies.

ravenstine•34m ago

What is this doing on the HN homepage?

profsummergig•32m ago

Serious questions:

1) I use "socials" anonymously. Have anon accounts on X, IG, FB. If asked to disclose them at the border (am US citizen, but it's happening to them too), do I disclose the anon accounts?

2) Nothing too controversial in my "socials" (I'm careful), but there's still stuff there that could embarrass me (e.g. mocking or abusing people on X). What would happen if I scrubbed my socials before a trip? Would they be able to find out that I scrubbed, and then construe something about me?

3) Relatedly, is there a recommended way to scrub one's socials?

4) Is something like HN considered part of "socials"? I assume Reddit is. So HN must be too? I've had multiple accounts on HN over the years (been serially banned until I stopped leaving controversial comments). What am I expected to do in such an instance? Do I disclose all the HN accounts?

5) Relatedly, I have multiple X accounts (squatting on usernames). Do I disclose all the accounts?

stop50•24m ago

1. If you don't and they find out, then you committed an felony. It is the same as the "Are you an terrorist?" questions. Once they want you for more serious stuff like blasphemy against king donald, then they can pull out the convicted felon card and increase the sentence.

2. + 4. It depends

3. If you plan to go to the us while Trump and his chronies are in an position of power, then the best way to scrub them is not to post it.

5. See 1. if you don't disclose all, they can pull the lie on a form card

jamie_ca•23m ago

My understanding is (1) yes. (2) maybe, maybe no, depends on if they're looking up people tagging you in threads? If there's signs you're scrubbing yourself out of politically controversial threads that might become problematic. (4) yes, yes, yes. (5) yes.

Assuming they do ask in the first place.

yearesadpeople•31m ago

It would appear rage has well and truly been bated. My word.

breve•23m ago

Bated means the opposite of what you mean.

HerbManic•20m ago

Yeah I usually expect better of the comments here but it looks like a nerve has been hit.

gortok•26m ago

The comments on this HN post nicely color the problem Tim points out, from the comments that assume the exceptionalism of the USA, to comments that say “stay in Canada”, to comments that call the post “moral preening”.

I grew up in a very conservative household, and until the tea party/Trumpian alliance would have called myself a small-l libertarian.

Now? I won’t vote republican for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is that it rhymes with the worst parts of the political parties we destroyed in world wars.

There’s something new almost every day that should, in a sane culture, cause folks to abandon the Republican Party en masse. Today’s example? The 1.776 Billion “anti-weaponization” fund that is a slush fund for Trump and his allies, including folks that stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021. The grift of this administration is shocking, but the fact that rank-and-file conservatives aren’t abandoning it by the millions gives away the game. It isn’t about principles, it’s about one party winning, no matter what.

We used to fight for what’s right, but we have become the villain. Tim is right about the declination of America (realizing his title is a double-entendre), and I can’t help but wonder if there is even a line that Trump could cross to the modern “Republican” party.

ponkyrisen•22m ago

Your brain is so small it is completely entrained by a one dimensional classification system designed for first graders.

Sabinus•6m ago

Use your main account. Go on.

HerbManic•22m ago

I said in another response, Trump has shown the cards to world that there is a sizable portion of the country that can not be trusted. Other nations have realised this is an embedded problem and cannot be fixed with another election. At least not on a long scale.

WarOnPrivacy•18m ago

> I won’t vote republican for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is that it rhymes with the worst parts of the political parties we destroyed in world wars.

As a former right winger, now recovering conservative, I'm inclined to agree. The greater issue for me is the right became every single thing they accused the left of (being easily hurt, mandated viewpoints, group think).

It's all the natural progression of the animosity campaigns Newt Gingrich launched a generation ago. ref: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/662/where-there-is-a-will/a...

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