He's got some kind of beef with Elon and has predicted TSLA stock will crash many times.
F sells an order of magnitude more cars (~$190 billion in revenue), and has a market cap of $62.8 billion vs TSLA market cap of $1.59 trillion.
TSLA is ridiculous. Any sane investor would look at those numbers and run as far and as fast as they can.
I'm rooting for SpaceX, but even I can see that there's some extremely dicey work being done to mask the enormous sinkhole of XAi (and Twitter).
That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.
The price at IPO will obviously be influenced by expectations of a future purchase by index funds... as an analogy, if it became public knowledge that next week, 1,000,000 people would all be required to buy gold, the price of gold would go up today, not next week
If the fast entry rule changes hadn’t happened I would agree with you entirely.
- many funds owned by the public will buy this, so people will be indirectly invested and could lose money
- if this affects the economy, it will affect everyoneSo my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.
Observe that almost all the complaints about what the indices are doing originate from outside of finance. It's very telling that the people who are complaining are not the ones putting their money where their mouths are.
If market participants didn't like what the indices are doing, they would simply reject it. Market participants absolutely do want this.
Now the underlying rules got changed, undeniably in favor and through pressure of few individuals.
Where I come from, we call that a rug pull
I feel that what this article is telling me is that passive funds are becoming active funds by way of manipulating the index itself. Kind of like if you’re passively invested in Brazil winning the World Cup but you can’t adjust the team or tactics, so instead you move the goal posts to where they’re about to kick the ball?
Pension funds seem more selective on the other hand. It’s always been the case that you can adjust your palette based on personal preference eg green energy, no weapons, tech stocks, etc.
Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive.
They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in aggregate and with respect to the outcome.
This is also addressed in the article:
> E. DON’T TRY TO SHORT SPACEX!!
> Elon Musk is a cult figure. Moreover, he has again and again proven himself immune to any meaningful market, legal, or regulatory scrutiny.
> Musk’s detractors have been correct about Tesla’s terrible fundamentals, its Full Self-Driving lies, its robotaxi fantasies, its shaky accounting. But when they have imagined these things might affect the stock price, they have been wrong.
Is the argument that SpaceX the business fails, or just that the IPO price is disconnected from reality?
How much of the index fund manipulation concern applies to any mega-cap IPO, vs. something unique to SpaceX?
Fortunately, this only affects indices that follow nasdaq, and from what i know, no other index is following this. That means it's "safe" to purchase a globally diversified, cap weighted index fund (safe as in the float isn't manipulated).
People talk of the demise of passive investing due to this, but most of the commentary fail to mention it's a specific, nasdaq thing and not a general change.
400thecat•2h ago
whateveracct•1h ago
this is the new playbook.
overfeed•22m ago
Same as the old playbook, just scaled up. Tesla got billions from state subsidies and selling carbon credits.
sschueller•1h ago
Also don't get me started on data centers in space idea...
When the Chinese land on the moon sometime in 2030 and the US still doesn't have a way to get there, will Elon finally reap the consequences for his lies or just the interim NASA admin that gave Space X the contract?
dogwalker5000•43m ago
In all likelihood, neither.
duskwuff•4m ago
As a point of reference, the GDP of the United States is roughly $30T.
michaelt•31m ago