Or: increasing resource efficiency may encourage even more usage, as happened with coal, oil and photovoltaics.

Wouldn't improving LLM efficiency make them even more useful across the board, then they can enjoy the nice economies of scale?

The plan is to have LLM working completely autonomously, in that case, the more resources you have, the better. Perhaps people will use local LLM to ask questions, or coders use them for their personal projects, but that's not where the real money is.

Don’t worry, they’ll get bailed out

I disagree in a way, part of the reason they can't really succeed at the moment is because it's way too expensive to really deploy at scale for most companies, but even for those AI companies themselves. If they can make business access subsidized/cheap the same way pro/plus/max/whatever plan are for regular users while still being profitable, this can work out. The other solution is if they do reach that "it's so super smart it's reinventing the world every day", but that one is much more of a maybe possibly one day.

What they can't do is the rug pull of pricing like Fable did, hoping for profitability while playing the "it's so super smart" card. It's very profitable, but customer will be very happy to leave for cheaper pasture and that's why the recent news about this or that cheaper chinese models make headlines.

Essentially, the rush now is "if I make it a boring profitable company I'm not worth a trillion AND i'm overshadowed that plays the singularity card even if they're bullshitting"

Jevon's Paradox ("As efficiency of resource use increases, usage of the resource increases") says otherwise. One things become more efficient, we can use them in lots of ways that would not have been viable before, driving up usage.

We haven't even started with a lot of things were we need a lot more compute:

Your real personal agent which knows you and helps you like "good morning elmer2, your calendar invite for dinner is today, you will need to leave at 18:18 if you want to use your normal public transport route per train. I put an alarm in your phone for you"

Agents to agents

Agentic teams.

Finetuned models for everything like Java/spanish coding model.

Very long term research like multiply hours or days or weeks and plenty of these in parallel.

There's only one mostly AI company you can short right now and everyone's already doing it.

Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent...

Simply choosing not to get involved might be most reasonable action.

Yeah I think it went through the press on mass eh?

And even if you look at the debt, even companies like meta make 200 billion revenue in 2025 alone.

Isn't it good that these companies with these massive massive deep pockets invest?

I think the point is that it’s not showing up on the standard financial filings. If you were to pull the annual reports for these companies, you wouldn’t see it. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to find it. Obviously, it is otherwise the article wouldn’t have been written. But you’re going to have to go the extra mile. To be clear, none of this is illegal. It’s just covered in the advanced CFO accounting class.

> The debt not showing up where the author wants is a reporting formality not an attempt to hide it.

Couldn't you characterize Enron that way? The liabilities are there, you "just" have to look at Raptor II or whatever!

If it didn't matter, why would they bother jumping through hoops to keep the debt off their balance sheet?

In the run-up to 2008 a big factor in the bubble forming was that poor quality loans were packaged in a way to hide the risk in those investments. I'm not expert enough in finance to know if it's the case now, but we do know that clever accounting to hide debt can lead to the incorrect valuation of assets, potentially leading to financial ruin.

The thing is they actually pushed the price tags of memory and disks high so we wouldn’t be able to afford it. Unless ofc you rent from them.

Is this in practice what's going to happen, or are (1) the prices going to hike (and never go down) for the consumer and (2) the memory companies will just continue doing what they already do because they're still selling their old shovels to the gold diggers?

I don't see how this will benefit the consumer, but I might be missing some second order effect?