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What happened to TheNumbers.com

https://stephenfollows.com/p/what-just-happened-to-thenumberscom-should-worry-us-all
104•nickthegreek•1h ago

Comments

dumberquestions•1h ago
Ironic that polymarkets were being advertised as helping society make better predictions.
ethagnawl•56m ago
At the risk of oversimplifying things from a distance, this site -- especially the free, public-facing part of it -- seems like it would be an ideal candidate for a rewrite using static site generator/framework. That, coupled with a bot-aware CDN should keep them online at a reasonable cost for many years to come.

Otherwise, I'm very curious to know more about their old and new architecture and what sorts of mitigation/scaling strategies they've started using to keep the site online.

tengada1•45m ago
Yeah this seems like one of the easiest access models to create an excellent security model for -- basically just static publishing. Sounds like they were in need of a rewrite anyway!

It probably seems daunting but to be honest this feels like a weekend's work at this point with LLM assistance. Not to be glib!

jaredwiener•27m ago
But it also destroys the business model behind the site.

Sure, you could technically redesign to handle the bot traffic, but if the bot traffic is just taking the data and reducing any need for humans to visit the site, why is he putting in the effort to maintain the site?

hyperhello•14m ago
Well, why is he? If it's for ad revenue, this problem is surely global to the web. If it's because he likes to do it, it shouldn't matter if one AI or a trillion scrape the site. I feel like we badly need a rethink of the web architecture after DoubleClick anyway. Maybe the name of the game should be to cut down a site's assets very hard and use static hosting for them. This interferes with crummy sites that show a mess of inlined ads every refresh, but now that there are a billion 'poor users' this is no longer feasible.
brcmthrowaway•56m ago
Its just too easy for a technically minded bored person to produce slop that hammers websites. There needs to be a penalty for this.
hyperhello•48m ago
If the scrapers are going to get it anyway, put the data up as a zip somewhere.
jjgreen•37m ago
It would not make any difference.
codemonkey-zeta•28m ago
Indeed, the article mentions Wikipedia experiencing similar scraping pains, even though they already DO have bulk data available.
abetusk•44m ago
I think people are missing one of the points of the article. It's not just that agents are hammering the site, it's that there might be lurking vulnerabilities that allow malicious usage, which is why it went down, then came back up with a fraction of the data and a reduced design.

The article says (speculates?) that malicious users are trying to get privileged access for an edge in prediction market betting. From the article:

> If you could see The Numbers data before everyone else, every single week, you would have a significant edge over all the other traders - learning the answers slightly ahead of publication would allow you to front-run the trades.

jambalaya8•42m ago
I always liked this site, but reading this and seeing the anger about expecting the site maintainer to do things for you is repulsive. Frankly, if he wanted to pull his site down with no notice that is perfectly within his right. It was/is his site. He doesn't owe anyone a .tar.gz either. His work.
BraveOPotato•39m ago
I agree. I've seen it happen before on a project I use. I decided to take a look at the repo for one of the plugins, and I saw a heinous issue that basically was TELLING (not even asking) the maintainer to fix it.

Deplorable behavior indeed

nater5000•41m ago
This is an odd example to present this argument through.

I'm not defending AI bots overwhelming websites or hackers motivated by Polymarket, etc., but I don't really believe a 30 year old website with "approximately 160,000 source files serving around 2 million pages" is a good litmus test for the state of the online world. What's worse is the absurdity that this basic site offering niche data would be targeted because Polymarket depends on it for some of their bets, something that most websites don't have to deal with. Frankly, that seems like a much more interesting angle to explore than "this old website that should have been re-written multiple times over the last three decades now doesn't have a choice but to be re-written."

Oddly, it seems like the solution, at least in this specific case, is relatively simple (and ironic): pay for an LLM to re-write this site in a modern, scalable, secure way and have that LLM monitor the site to ensure it is behaving correctly. Put this thing in a modern platform behind a proper cache (i.e., throw the whole thing up in Cloudflare) and many of these problems just don't exist anymore. If this site is as basic as it seems, this could be a weekend project.

It's certainly an interesting story, and I don't blame the owner of The Numbers for handling his site the way he has, but framing this as "AI is destroying our beloved internet" just seems obtuse, at least through this lens.

jaredwiener•29m ago
Isn't this the NRA's argument? The only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.

Or at least somewhere between that and full on protection racket.

LLMs come on the scene, hammer the site until it goes offline or racks up bills that threaten bankruptcy, and the solution then is to pay for an LLM to fix it and monitor it.

That's a real nice site ya got there, it would be a shame if massive datacenters going up around the world were to start hammering it from tens of thousands of IP addresses....

jambalaya8•16m ago
The actual solution is damn simple and painfully obvious: make things like so-called "prediction markets" illegal.

The intelligence community came to the conclusion (after research and experiments) that things like "prediction markets" were a bad idea in 1996.

Far worse now than then, with the net and AI of 2026 and the insane number of people now online that want to make an easy buck.

Don't get me wrong; I am guessing some of us on here would do well on those places. But they should not exist.

gajus•33m ago
What a throwback. Back in 2015 I have started Applaudience, which at the time was the only provider of real-time cinema ticket sales data. I still remember comparing our numbers against TheNumbers.com as part of calibration. I have since moved on to other businesses, but this remains one of my favorite pieces of technology that I have developed. Would love to bring it back one day.
datadrivenangel•19m ago
If the AI companies destroy the open web, eventually they'll need to start curating knowledge sources just like netflix makes movies and amazon has physical stores...
nradov•15m ago
Already happening. Frontier LLM vendors have been hiring human domain experts specifically to create their own proprietary training data in targeted verticals.
hebleb•7m ago
Good read, I was so curious how this happened a few months ago
tehjoker•3m ago
The real story here is that prediction markets were banned for a reason and loosening the rules is causing chaos just as was expected. AI plays little role in this story, hacking by humans would also be motivated by financial returns, unless the element is that AI hacking is cheaper and the returns are not so big.
primitivesuave•1m ago
A couple years ago, I was running a website which allowed the public to view all the US government handouts to small businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also tracked all the fraudulent loans being prosecuted by the DOJ, and allowed anyone to run structured queries over the public dataset. There was a "donate" button which took in ~$2k in donations over the lifetime of the site, and you could download the entire underlying dataset (around 10 GB uncompressed) for free directly on the site.

Despite the download link being prominently placed on the front page, the AI scrapers decided it would be more efficient to download terabytes upon terabytes of raw HTML by paginating through every possible facet on the search endpoint. Even with CloudFront caching and a fairly efficient backend setup, the monthly bill ended up with around $1k just going toward network ingress/egress, so I shut down the site the following month.

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What happened to TheNumbers.com

https://stephenfollows.com/p/what-just-happened-to-thenumberscom-should-worry-us-all
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