For us in the southwest it looks like a good El Niño. We are deeply in drought, but just maybe we may already be seeing the start of a wet fall.

Yes El Niño creates sheer in the tropical Atlantic inhibiting tropical cyclone formation in that area

El Niño sends the jet stream southward. Once the jet stream gets far enough south it tears apart any developing storms in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea before they have a chance to become a problem.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/will-2026-go-down-w... says:

> Given the strong and still-strengthening El Niño, which tends to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin while boosting numbers in the Pacific, there is some chance that this season could end on Nov. 30 with no hurricanes.

But I am not liking this site. Both articles are mostly just restating "this is really rare" in 5+ different ways without explaining why. If anyone has a better site, a link would be most appreciated.

Overall the expectations are an increase in intensity and inability to predict. There is no expectation around consistency. That is why climate change is going to be such a disaster, it's not acutely predictable and it's death by a thousand cuts for us. The floods in Nepal etc are a good example. Very hard to predict, extremely distructive.

Only in the Atlantic Ocean. In the Pacific, Hawaii has had back-to-back hurricanes for the last few weeks. Lala, Lowell, Karina, Norbert. They haven't made landfall there, but have come close enough to send flash floods and high storm surges.

No, not really. Massively fewer rain storms usually isn't good news in the long run. You kind of need rains to keep things from being too dry. I don't know about your body chemistry but water is pretty critical in mine.

I'd love more storms where I'm at. Things have been exceptionally hot and dry. I don't want giant massive Cat 5 storms, but a severe lack of tropical storms and smaller hurricanes hasn't been good.

And as others have mentioned, hurricanes end up cooling off the waters. The lack of these storms from developing due to atmospheric effects destroying them before they grow means the heat builds. So when El Nino goes away, we're likely to get even worse storms soon after.

And marine populations will suffer. Changes in currents will affect shipping. Overall a disaster.

See, that’s where you are wrong. There have been no hurricanes because the Gulf of Mexico no longer exists, so all the energy stored in it has disappeared, in direct contravention of the second law of thermodynamics. Thank you President Trump!

Of course, I kid.