A reason used to justify these massive cuts is that AI will soon replace traditional research. This post demonstrates this assumption is likely false.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_and_information_techno... :
> Al Gore, a strong and knowledgeable proponent of the Internet, promoted legislation that resulted in President George H.W Bush signing the High Performance Computing and Communication Act of 1991. This Act allocated $600 million
> In the early 1990s the Internet was big news ... In the fall of 1990, there were just 313,000 computers on the Internet; by 1996, there were close to 10 million. The networking idea became politicized during the 1992 Clinton–Gore election campaign, where the rhetoric of the information highway captured the public imagination.
Your parent comment is either joining in on the ridicule side or at least in misquoting:
> Gore became the subject of controversy and ridicule when his statement, "I took the initiative in creating the Internet", was widely quoted out of context. It was often misquoted by comedians and figures in American popular media who framed this statement as a claim that Gore believed he had personally invented the Internet.[54] Gore's actual words were widely reaffirmed by notable Internet pioneers, such as Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn, who stated, "No one in public life has been more intellectually engaged in helping to create the climate for a thriving Internet than the Vice President."
Specifically, Gore said in an interview that he “took the initiative in creating the Internet” by introducing the bill to allow commercial traffic on ARPAnet, which McCullagh twisted in an article to “Al Gote claimed he invented the Internet” in order to to smear him.
Al Gore understood technology, the internet, was a champion for the environment, and it's unbelievable today that he came that close to presidency (and then lost). When people say "we live in the bad timeline", one of the closest good timelines is probably one where this election went differently.
I used to work in academia and was involved in NSF-funded programs, so I have mixed feelings about this. Waste and inefficiency are rampant. BTW I'm not talking about failed projects or research that were dimmed "not important", but things like buying million-dollar equipment just to use up the budget, which then sits idle.
That said, slashing NSF funding by 50% won’t fix any of that. It’ll just shrink both the waste and the genuinely valuable research proportionally. So it's indeed a serious blow to real scientific progress.
I don’t really have a point, just want to put it here. Also to be fair this kind of inefficiency isn't unique to academia; it’s common anywhere public money is involved.
That's not specific to the US, and it's because of a perverse incentive coming from those who assign the funds.
If you don't use them they cut your funding for the next cycle.
Because… why not? It's free money. Having the newest shiny equipment, at the very least, boosts your group’s reputation. Not to mention that straight-up corruption (pocketing funds for personal gain) is not unheard of.
I’m tired of all the complaining about waste and overhead in academics. Companies waste money all the time…
Utter nonsense, these are some of the smartest people in the world who do incredibly valuable science.
For me the key quote in the article is
"Most scientists aren’t trying to mislead anyone, but because they face strong incentives to present favorable results, there’s still a risk that you’ll be misled."
Understanding people's incentives is often very useful when you're looking at what they're saying.
The only realistic evaluations of "AI" so far are those that admit it's only useful for experts to skip some boring work. And triple check the output after.
Where ML generally shines is either when you have relatively lots of experimental data with respect to a fairly narrow domain. This is the case for machine learned interatomic potentials MLIPs which have been a thing since the '90s. Also potentially the case for weather modelling (but I do not want to comment about that). Or when you have absolute insane amounts of data, and you train a really huge model. This is what we refer to as AI. This is basically why Alphafold is successful, and Alphafold still fails to produce good results when you query it on inputs that are far from any data points in its training data.
But most ML for physics problems tend to be somewhere in between. Lacking experimental data and working with not enough simulation data because it is so expensive to produce. And also training models that are not large enough, because inference would be too slow, anyway, if they were too big. And then expecting these models to learn a very wide range of physics.
And then everyone jumps in on the hype train, because it is so easy to give it a shot. And everyone gets the same dud results. But then they publish anyway. And if the lab/PI is famous enough or if they formulate the problem in a way that is unique and looks sciency or mathy, they might even get their paper in a good journal/conference and get lots of citations. But in the end, they still only end up with the same results as everyone else: replicates the training data to some extent, somebody else should work on the generalizability problem.
I mean, there ought to be an element of abstract thought, abstract reasoning, abstract inter-linking of concepts, etc, to enable mathematicians to solve complex math theorems and problems.
What am I missing?
One typical use case is that the simulation data takes months to generate. So for experimental use cases, it is very slow. So the idea was, to train a model that can learn the underlying physics. The model will be small enough so that inference won't be prohibitively expensive. So you can then use the ML model in lieu of the classical physics based model.
Where this usually fails is that while ML models can be trained well enough to replicate the training data, they typically fail to generalize well outside of the domain and regime of the training data. So unless your experimental problems are entirely within the same domains and regimes as the training data, your model is of not much use.
So claims of generalizability and applicability are always dubious.
Lots of publications on this topic follow the same pattern: conceive of a new architecture or formalism, train an ML model on widely available data, results show that it can reproduce the training data to some extent, mention generalizability in the discussion but never test it.
Where are the AI-driven breakthroughs? Or even the AI-driven incremental improvements? Do they exist anywhere? Or are we just using AI to remix existing general knowledge, while making no progress of any sort in any field using it?
> To investigate AlphaEvolve’s breadth, we applied the system to over 50 open problems in mathematical analysis, geometry, combinatorics and number theory. The system’s flexibility enabled us to set up most experiments in a matter of hours. In roughly 75% of cases, it rediscovered state-of-the-art solutions, to the best of our knowledge.
> And in 20% of cases, AlphaEvolve improved the previously best known solutions, making progress on the corresponding open problems. For example, it advanced the kissing number problem. This geometric challenge has fascinated mathematicians for over 300 years and concerns the maximum number of non-overlapping spheres that touch a common unit sphere. AlphaEvolve discovered a configuration of 593 outer spheres and established a new lower bound in 11 dimensions.
https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/B...
(this is an LLM driven pipeline)
And it's far from commercial availability.
An LLM-based system now holds the SOTA approach on several math problems, how crazy is that? I wasn't convinced before, but now I guess it won't be many decades before we view making new scientific advancements as viable as winning against stockfish.
It’s people making money off hype until it dies and move on to the next scam-with-some-use.
The other is worse than nothing.
I think there is this weird take amongst some on HN where LLMs are either completely revolutionary and making break through or utterly useless.
The truth is that they are useful already as a productivity tool.
Now that I think of it, maybe this AI era is not electricity, but rather GUI - like the time when Jobs(or whoever) figured out and adopted modern GUI on computers allowing more widespread uses of computer
I was not able to get meeting transcription in that quality that cheap ever before. I followed dictation software for over a decade and tx to ML the open source software is suddenly a lot better than ever before.
Our internal company search with state of the art search indexes and search software was always shit. Now i ask an agent about a product standard and it just finds it.
Image generation never existed before.
Building a chatbot in a way that it actually does what you expect and its more complicated than answering the same 10 theoretical features it can do was hard and never really good and it now just works.
Im also not aware of any software rewriting or even writing documents for me, structer them etc.
I mean if you are going to deny their usefulness in the face of plenty of people telling you they actually help, it’s going to be impossible to have a discussion.
They don't just work though, they are not fool proof and definitely require double checking.
That’s not my experience.
We use them more and more at my job. It was already great for most office tasks including brainstorming simple things but now suppliers are starting to sell us agents which pretty much just work and honestly there are a ton of things for which LLMs seem really suited for.
CMDB queries? Annoying SAP requests for which you have to delve through dozens of menus? The stupid interface of my travel management and expense software? Please give me a chatbot for all of that which can actually decipher what I’m trying to do. These are hours of productivity unlocked.
We are also starting to deploy more and more RAG on select core business dataset and it’s more useful than even I anticipated and I’m already convinced. You ask, you get a brief answer and the documents back. This used to be either hours of delving through search results or emails with experts.
As imperfect as they are now, the potential value of LLMs is already tremendous.
My issue here is that a lot of this is solved by good practice, for example,travel management and expenses have been solved, company credit card. I don't need one slightly better piece of software to manage one terrible piece of software to solve an issue that has a solution.
Speedy minutes are absolutely not a template away. Anyone who ever had to write minutes for a complicated meetings knows it’s hard and requires a lot of back and forth for everyone to agree about what was said and decided.
Now you just turn on Copilot and you get both a transcript and an adequate basis for good minutes. Bonus point: it’s made by a machine so no one complains it has bias.
Some people here are blind to how useful that is.
1. Involve a computer
2. Do not require incredible intelligence
3. Involve the messiness of the real world enough that you can't write exact code to do it without it being insanely fragile
LLMs suddenly start to tackle these, and tackle them kind of all at once. Additionally they are "programmed" in just English and so you don't need a specialist to do something like change the tone of the summary or format, you just write what you want.
Assuming the models never get any smarter or even cheaper, and all we get is neater integrations, I still think this is all huge.
Again though, that's not at all what I've talked about.
Writing emails - once I knew what I wanted to convey, the rest was so trivial as to not matter, and any LLM tooling just got in the way of actually expressing it as I ended up trying to tweak the junk it was producing.
Meeting minutes - I have yet to see one that didn’t miss something important while creating a lot of junk that no one ever read.
And while I’m sure someone somewhere has had luck with the document search/extract stuff, my experience has been that the hard part was understanding something, and then finding it in the doc or being reminded of it was easy. If someone didn’t understand something, the AI summary or search was useless because they didn’t know what they were seeing.
I’ve also seen a LOT of both junior and senior people end up in a haze because they couldn’t figure out what was going on - and the AI tooling just allowed them to produce more junk that didn’t make any sense, rather than engage their brain. Which causes more junk for everyone to get overwhelmed with.
IMO, a lot of the ‘productivity’ isn’t actually, it’s just semi coherent noise.
+1 LLM will help you produce the "filler" nobody wants the read anyway.
> Meeting minutes - I have yet to see one that didn’t miss something important while creating a lot of junk that no one ever read.
Especially that one. In the beginning for very structured meetings with a low number of participants it seemed to be ok but once they got more crowded, maybe not all are native speakers and took longer than 30 minutes (like workshops) it went bad.
But of course, models always improve and they never grow tired (if enough VC money is available), and even an idiot can stumble upon low hanging fruits overlooked by the brightest minds. This tireless ability to do systematic or brute-force reasoning about non-frontier subjects is bound to produce some useful results like those you mention.
The comparison with a pure financial swindle and speculative mania like NFTs is of course an exaggeration.
>that misunderstands some wild fact or theory and starts to speculate dumb and ridiculous "discoveries"
>even an idiot can stumble upon low hanging fruits overlooked by the brightest minds.
why is this such a posterchild for llms. everyone always leads with this.
how boring are these meetings and do ppl actually review these notes? i never ever saw anyone reading meeting minutes or even mention them.
Why is this usecase even mentioned in LLM ads.
All I'm hearing is an appeal to making the workplace more isolating. Don't talk to each other, just talk to the machine that might summarize it wrong
Alone language translation got so much better, voice syntesis, voice transcription.
All my meetings now are searchable and i can ask 'ai' to summarize my meetings in a relative accurate way impossible before that.
Alphafold made a breakthrough in protein folding.
Image and Video generation can now do unbelievable things.
Realtime voice communication with computer.
Our internal company search suddenly became usefull.
I have 0 use case for NFT and Crypto. I have tons of use case for ML.
At the end of the day searching work documents and talking with computers is only desirable inasmuch as they are economically profitable. Crypto at the end of the day is responsible for a lot of people getting wealthy. Was a lot of this wealth obtained on sketchy grounds? probably, but the same could be said AI (for example, the recent sale of windsurf for an obscene amount of money).
The bug difference is that they are profitable because they create value, when cryptocurrencies are a zero sum game between participants. (It is in fact a negative-sum game, since some people are getting paid to make the thing work so that others can gamble on the system).
And sure everyone who got the money from others by gambling are biased. Fine with me.
But in comparision to crypto, people around me actually use AI/ML (most of them).
The problem is that the hype assumes that all of this is a baseline (or even below the baseline), while there are no signs that it can go much further in the near future – and in some cases, it's actually cutting-edge research. This leads to a pushback that may be disproportionate.
This is a ridiculous take that makes me think you might not « understand the tech » as much as you think you do.
Is AI useful today ? That depends on the exact use case but overall it seems pretty clear the hype is greater than the use currently. But sometimes I feel like everyone forgets that ChatGPT isn’t even 3 years old, 6 years ago we were stuck with GPT-2 whose most impressive feat was writing a non sense poem about a unicorn, and AlphaGo is not even 10 years old.
If you can’t see the trend and just think that what we have today is the best we will ever achieve, thus the tech can’t do anything useful, you are getting blinded by contrarianism.
AI have legitimate uses, cryptocurrency only has “regulations evasion” and NFT has literally no use at all, though.
But that's very true that the AI ecosystem is crowded with grifters who feed on baseless hype, and many of them actually come from cryptocurrencies.
What they naively wished the future was like: Flying cars. What they actually got (and is way more useful but a lot less flashy): Cheap solar energy.
This future is already there:
We have flying cars: they are called "helicopters" (see also https://xkcd.com/1623/).
Thank you for providing an example that directly maps to usefulness of ANN in most research though.
As a counterpoint: Geoffrey Hinton. You could say he's gone off the deep end on a tangent, but I definitely don't his incentive is to make money off of hype. Then there's Yann LeCun saying AI "could actually save humanity from extinction". [0]
Are these guys just washed out talking heads at this point, and who are the "new guard" who people should read up on?
[0]: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/27/godfather...
(See, eg. r/LeopardsAteMyFace for examples. It’s fascinating.)
It's moot.
The only thing that seems to live up to the hype is AlphaFold, which predicts protein folding based on amino acid sequences, and of which people say that it actually makes their work significantly easier.
But, disclaimer, this is only from second-hand knowledge, I'm not working in the field.
As to the common idea of having to wait for general AI (AGI) to bring the gains, I have been quite sure since the start of the recent AI hype cycle that narrow AI will have silently transformed much of the world before AGI even hits the town.
> Besides protein folding, the canonical example of a scientific breakthrough from AI, a few examples of scientific progress from AI include:1
> Weather forecasting, where AI forecasts have had up to 20% higher accuracy (though still lower resolution) compared to traditional physics-based forecasts.
> Drug discovery, where preliminary data suggests that AI-discovered drugs have been more successful in Phase I (but not Phase II) clinical trials. If the trend holds, this would imply a nearly twofold increase in end-to-end drug approval rates.
Interesting discussions tend to avoid “AI” in favour of specific terms such as “ML”, “LLM”, “GAN”, “stable diffusion”, “chatbot”, “image generation”. These terms refer to specific tech and applications of that tech, and allow to argue about specific consequences for sciences or society (use of ML in biotech vs. proliferation of chatbots).
However, certain sub-industries prefer “AI” precisely because it’s so vague, offers seemingly unlimited potential (please give us more investment money/stonks go up), and creates a certain vibe of a conscious being useful when pretending not to be working around IP laws and creating tools based on data obtained without relevant licensing agreements (cf. the countless “if humans have the freedom to read, therefore it’s unfair to restrict the uses of a software tool” fallacies, often perpetuated even by seemingly technically literate people, in pretty much every relevant forum thread).
I think Machine Learning doesn't mean this as a word, as it can also refer to linear regression, non-linear optimisation, decision trees, bayesian networks etc.
That's not saying that AI isn't abused as a term - but I do think a more general term to describe the latest 5 years advancements in neural networks to solve problems is useful. Particularly as it's not obvious which model architectures would apply to which fields without more work (or even if novel architectures will be required for frontier science applications).
Which is to agree - obviously if people are talking about "AI" they don't want to talk about something that exists right this second. If they did it'd be better to use a precise word.
Maybe too much room, but it's hard to predict if AI tools will overcome their limitations in the near future.
literally last week
https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-p...
The Microsoft paper around the quantum “ breakthrough ” is in a different field, but maybe a good example of why we need to be a little more cautious of research-as-marketing
Like many (I suspect), I have had several users provide comments that the AI processes I have defined have made meaningful impacts on their daily lives - often saving them double digit hours of effort per week. Progress.
You have no idea what you are talking about. Every day there is plenty of research published that used AI to help achieve scientific goals.
Now LLMs are another matter, and probably a ways off before we reap the benefit beyond day to day programming / writing productivity.
> Where are the AI-driven breakthroughs
> are we just using AI to remix existing general knowledge, while making no progress of any sort in any field using it?
The obvious example of a highly significant AI-driven breakthrough is Alphafold [1]. It has already had a large impact on biotech, helping with drug discovery, computational biology, protein engineering...
[1] https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-deepmind-isomorphic...
> Or are we just using AI to remix existing general knowledge, while making no progress of any sort in any field using it?
AIUI they are generally not talking about LLMs here.
Define breakthrough. When is the improvement big enough to count as one?
Define AI. Are you talking about modern LLM, or is old school ML also in that question?
I mean Googles AI-company had with AlphaFold and other project quite the impact.
> Or are we just using AI to remix existing general knowledge
Is remixing bad? Isn't many science today "just" remixing with slight improvements? I mean, there is a reason why we have theoretical and practical scientists. Doing boring Lab-work and accidentally discovering something exciting is not the only way science is happening. Analysing data and remixing information, building new theories, is also important.
And don't forget, we don't have AGI yet. Whatever AI is doing today, is limited by what humans are using it for. Another question is, whether LLM is not normalized enough already that we do not see it as very special any more, if it's used somewhere. So we might not even see it if AI has significant impact on any breakthrough.
Most scientists aren’t trying to mislead anyone, but because they face strong incentives to present favorable results, there’s still a risk that you’ll be misled.
In other words scientists are trying to mislead everyone because there are a lot of incentives; money and professional status to name just two.
A common problem across all disciplines of science.
Because the expectation was too high. If you are aiming for precision, neural networks might not be the best solution for you. That is why generative AI works so well, it doesn’t need to be extremely precise. On the other hand you don't see people use neural networks in system control for cricital processes.
In particular the ability of auto regressive transformer based networks to produce sequences speech while being immutable still shocks me whenever I think about it. Of course, this says as much about what we think of ourselves and other humans as it does about the matrices. I also think that the weather forcasting networks are quite shocking, the compression that they have achieved in modeling the physical system that produces weather is frankly.... wrong... but it obviously does actually work.
None of the claims made in the article are surprising because they’re the natural outgrowth of the hodgepodge of incentives we’ve accreted as what we call “science” over time and you just need to practice over time to be able to place the output of science in the proper context and understand that a “paper” is an artifact of a sociotechnical system with all the entailing complexity that demands.
I have not seen anything like it before. We literaly had not system or way of even doing things like code generation based on text input.
Just last week i asked for a script to do image segmentation with a basic UI and claude just generated that for me in under 1 Minute.
I could list tons of examples which are groundbreaking. The whole Image generation stack is completly new.
That blog article is fair enough, there is hype around this topic for sure, but alone for every researcher who needs to write code for their research, AI can make them already a lot more efficient.
But i do believe, that we have entered a new ara: An ara were we take data again very serious. A few years back, you said 'the internet doesn't forget' then we realized that yes the internet starts to forget. Google deleted pages, removed the cache feature and it felt like we stoped caring for data because we didn't knew what to do with it.
Then ai came along. And not only is now data king again but we are now in the mids of reinforcment ara: We now give feedback and the systems incorporate that feedback into their training/learning.
And the ai/ml topic is getting worked on on every single aspect of it: Hardware, Algorithm, use cases, data, tools, protocols, etc. We are in the middle of incorporating and building for and on it. This takes a little bit of time. Still the progress is crazy exhausting.
We will only see in a few years if there is a real ceiling. We do need more GPUs, bigger Datacenters to do a lot more experiments on AI architecture and algorithm. We have a clear bottleneck. Big companies train one big model for weeks and month.
Everyone is a rational actor from their individual perspective. The people hyping AI, and the people dismissing the hype both have good reasons.
The is justification to see this new tech as ground breaking. There is justification to be weary about massive theft of data and dismissiveness of privacy.
First, acknowledge and respect that there are so many opinions on any issue. Take yourself out of the equation for a minute. Understand the other side. Really understand it.
Take a long walk in other people’s shoes.
scientists don't need to be efficient, they need to be correct. Software bugs were already a huge cause of scientific error, and responsible for lack of reproducibility, see for example cases like this (https://www.vice.com/en/article/a-code-glitch-may-have-cause...)
Programming in research environments is done with some notoriously questionably variation in quality, as is the case for the industry to be fair, but in research minor errors can ruin results of entire studies. People are fed up and come to much harsher judgements on AI because in an environment like a lab you cannot write software with the attitude of an impressionist painter or the AI equivalent, you need to actually know what you're typing.
AI can make you more efficient if you don't care if you're right, which is maybe cool if you're generating images for your summer beach volleyball event, but it's a disastrous idea if you're writing code in a scientific environment.
Thing is we just see that it's copy pasting stack overflow, but now in a fancy way so this is sounding like "I asked Google for a nearby restaurant and it found it in like 500ms, my C64 couldn't do that". It sounds impressive (and it is) because it sounds like "it learned about navigating in the real world and it can now solve everything related to that" but what it actually solved is "fancy lookup in a GIS database". It's useful, damn sure it is, but once the novelty wears off you start seeing it for what it is instead of what you imagine it is.
Edit: to drive the point home.
> claude just generated that
What you think happened is AI is "thinking" and building a ontology over which it reasoned and came to the logical conclusion that this script was the right output. What actually happened is your input correlates to this output according to the trillion examples it saw. There is no ontology. There is no reasoning. There is nothing. Of course this is still impressive and useful as hell, but the novelty will wear off in time. The limitations are obvious by this point.
Just about tech engineering here but I do think it transfers to science as well.
https://dev.to/sebs/the-quiet-crisis-how-is-ai-eroding-our-t...
Lesson learned: don't trust ads
> Most scientists aren’t trying to mislead anyone
More learning ahead, the exciting part of being a scientist!
nicoco•5h ago
Anyway, winter is coming, innit?
croes•5h ago
moravak1984•4h ago
Sure, it is often flag-planting, but when these papers come from big corps, you cannot "just ignore them and keep on" even when there are obvious flaws/issues.
It's a race over resources, as a (former) researcher on a low-budget university, we just cannot compete. We are coerced to believe whatever figure is passed on in the literature as "benchmark", without possibility of replication.
nicoco•4h ago
baxtr•4h ago
mzl•4h ago
As is often the case with statistics, selecting just a single number to report (whatever that number is) will hide a lot of different behaviours. Here, they show that just using the mean is a bad way to report data as the confidence intervals (reconstructed by the methods in the paper in most cases) show that the models can't really be distinguished based on their mean.
amarcheschi•2h ago
How can something like that happen? I mean, i had a supervisor tell me "add the confidence interval to the results as well", and explained me why. I guess that at nobody ever told them? Or they didn't care? Or it's just a honest mistake
nicoco•39m ago
1. Segmentation is a very classical in medical image processing. 2. Everyday there are papers claiming that they beat the state of the art 3. This paper says that most of the time, the state of the art has not been beat because they actually are in the margin of error.
KurSix•2h ago