frontpage.
newsnewestaskshowjobs

Made with ♥ by @iamnishanth

Open Source @Github

Open in hackernews

Startup Equity 101

https://quarter--mile.com/Startup-Equity-101
87•surprisetalk•3d ago

Comments

Oarch•4h ago
I wonder how much longer this logic can hold. I have equity in the startup I'm at. It's a very complex platform and in a niche / emerging market.

Yet could AI feasibly generate a similar (or better) app in a few years? It used to be unthinkable. Now, I'm not so sure.

The development cost of software could feasibly drop to negligible levels. It no longer seems like sci-fi, more and more it seems like the inevitable direction of travel.

What happens to my equity? Welp. Might not be great news.

haxton•3h ago
Always treat startup equity as 0 until you've sold it.
edoceo•3h ago
Correct. The motivation for equity comp should be more of "I want to change the world" than the "I want big money". The odds are very against it.

Here's some older stats (2017) https://berkonomics.com/?p=2899

But searching, you'll find loads more studies on startup/angel/seed.

It's like, optimistically, 1/20

Oarch•2h ago
Good advice! Thankfully I do want to change the world (for the better I hasten to add) and so far so good.
Aurornis•3h ago
There’s more to a successful business than masking an app.

A lot of acquisitions are made by companies that could re-build the acquired product themselves. They’re buying the business, brand, and customer base, not the app.

ldjkfkdsjnv•3h ago
This isnt true, nobody knows what will happen when you can very cheaply replicate software. The sales etc are valuable, but when the cost of producing the product goes to zero, weird things will happen.
henry2023•31m ago
Who says the cost of producing software is going to zero?
PopAlongKid•4h ago
>AMT is a pretty complicated calculation

Actually, it is not. It only seems complicated because it is backed into after calculating the regular tax when you use the IRS tax forms. In other words, first you calculate ordinary tax, then you make plus/minus adjustments for the things that are different under AMT.

If there was a Form 1040-AMT which simply calculated the AMT the same way we calculate regular tax, you would see that it is actually simpler than ordinary tax. (depreciation is simpler, itemized deductions are simpler, personal exemptions for kids go away, the standard deduction is much higher, and so on).

If we did it the other way around - calculate AMT first, then make adjustments to back into ordinary tax, then you'd say ordinary tax is complicated.

Most people don't understand that under the TCJA temporary provisions enacted in 2017 and expiring in 2025, most of the changes just involved moving AMT provisions into the ordinary tax calculation.

hn_throwaway_99•3h ago
I agree AMT itself is not a particularly complicated calculation. But I don't think that was really the point of that quoted statement. The complicated part is figuring out if and when AMT applies to you, and, essentially, for how long it can raise your taxes.

As you said, the tax code requires you to calculate your taxes twice - once using the "normal" rules, and another time using the AMT rules, and you pay whichever is higher. So, depending on your individual circumstances, it's non-trivial to know if AMT will apply to you when making particular money movements during the year. Also, if you have to pay AMT in year one, but then in year two the calculated AMT is below your normal tax calculation, you get a credit for the excess amount (i.e. amount over the normal tax from year 1) up to the delta between the normal tax and the AMT amount. In other words, AMT can often times just cause tax to be paid earlier, but the total amount of money (over years), ends up being the same. Of course, the time value of money comes into play - paying a tax earlier is losing money.

So, point being, there are complicated considerations to take into account.

strangelove026•3h ago
At a startup where I've exercised 75% of my options because the company seems to be going to a direction where maybe it's public in a little while (and I've got some other investments which prevent me from being over-invested here). I also want to dump all of the shares as soon as they go public and I'm able (employee sale window-wise) as I anticipate that there'll be a pop followed by a drop. This is all anecdotal given what I've observed over the years. As a result of exercising everything early (back into the S&P) on I'll be able to get long-term capital gains which is a motivator.

So that all said I agree with the author's take of "maybe" exercising before an IPO is worth it. This is my first time in a role where I've actually got pre-IPO Options. My last role I joined right before the company went public. The agreement there was that I'll get x$ worth of shares where the quantity is determined by the price 3 months or so after the IPO. They went from >$100 per share to like $30 a share which coincided with when I was assigned my shares lol. Oh well.

dmitrygr•57m ago
> I anticipate that there'll be a pop followed by a drop

You'll miss both. A 6-month lockup is typical. Sorry, do not pass go, do not collect on the "pop"

dakiol•3h ago
Unless you work in SV, I think the advice for the rest of us is: take equity/stocks/options as a lottery ticket. Very unlikely that you’ll cash something, therefore base compensation is king.
ghaff•1h ago
If you work for a moderately large company, it probably won't go to zero (though it could so you may want to hedge your bets). Not sure what SV specifically has to to do with it. I agree in general about focusing on cash on the barrel.
ptero•1h ago
It's the same thing in the SV. Unless the company is doing liquidity events the early, but post-founder equity is unlikely to pan out for employees.

And it can motivate employees to stay at the company way beyond what's good for them, as leaving the company means either abandoning your equity or exercising your options and paying real money for a very risky and illiquid asset. My 2c.

ldjkfkdsjnv•3h ago
One thing no one told me:

When you cofound a company, its not the equity percent, but who is in control that matters. If you have 40%, and they get 60%, but legally or otherwise (you are the face of the company), then you have control and the 40% is worth more than the 60.

If you leave early after cofounding a company, there is no saying what happens to you shares, and likely they will be diluted to almost nothing

Its all about control.

If you are an employee, either go for a company thats a few years from IPO, a generational startup, or consider the equity worth 0.

leonhard•2h ago
what’s a generational startup?
ldjkfkdsjnv•2h ago
cursor
shishy•2h ago
They probably meant a "once in a generation" startup like a unicorn
sdfasdfas134•2h ago
This is true. Once you lose control, the VCs will start to appoint their buddies in Atherton in as CEOs, VPs, SVPs, Chiefs of Staff, etc. Eventually you get pushed out. You wont even know what half the people do.

Or you get impossible performance plans placed on you (that their buddies wont get) which will mean you either achieve the impossible or you lose your founder stock.

If you are giving up voting control, ensure to get a secondary sale to sell some of your stock (5-10mil) so you're set for life. Then you can let the VCs burn the company down...if you really want.

TuringNYC•2h ago
>> So what is your equity really worth?... >> ... >> The difference between the most recent FMV (409A) valuation and your exercise >> price. ... >> The difference between the Preferred Price and your exercise price....

The real answer is that it is probably not worth anything unless they have stock liquidity events that only a handful of large startups have (e.g. Stripe.)

If you dont have that, the price is purely theoretical. Further, if you cannot see the cap table and the preference overhang -- and most startups wont let you see it -- then you have no idea what the real price is regardeless of a theoretical 409A value.

Even if you can see the cap table, spending today-dollars and exercising options for the right to sell stock 5 or 10yrs into the future almost never works out -- the cone of uncertainty across 5 or 10yrs is far too great. The better move would probably to be to use that money to purchase long-dated LEAP call options on the Nasdaq Composite

SkyPuncher•1h ago
Correct, the 409a is only going to show you the maximum possible value.

Realistically, investors get their money back first, so 50% (picking an arbiter number) of that valuation value won’t ever been seen by employees. Then it gets even worse with multipliers and preferences.

FreakLegion•1h ago
It's the preference and its multiplier that gives investors their money back first. These aren't different things, they're one thing, and generally only matter if the company exits for less than the valuation the investors invested at. The exception to this is if any investors have a liquidation preference > 1x (you should avoid companies where this is the case).

Preferences also don't stack with the rest of a liquidity event. E.g. say an investor puts in $100m at a post-money of $1b with a 1x liquidation preference. If the shares go for $900m, the investor gets back their $100m, and that's all. They don't lose money, but they don't make money either. If the shares go at a $1.1b valuation, the investor converts their preferred shares to common shares like everyone else has. The investor doesn't get their money back first and sell more shares on top of that. It's either/or.

t0mas88•45m ago
Whether it's and vs either/or is the difference between a liquidation preference or a participating liquidation preference. And indeed the more than 1x cases are also problematic for common stock holders.

But I do assume the 409A for the fair marker value of the common stock takes these into account? Not a US tax expert :-)

CPLX•1h ago
> the 409a is only going to show you the maximum possible value

While the points about uncertainty of options are quite accurate, this detail isn’t really true.

For the most part a 409a is the lowest reasonable valuation the company could talk the auditors into accepting. The lower it is the less tax paid and everyone knows that.

bcyn•39m ago
You're correct about valuation, but the parent post was meant to address "how much liquid dollars should you expect to receive vs. 409a." You are likely to receive less in most cases (read: unless there are wildly successful public liquidity events) due to liquidation preferences.
fragmede•44m ago
> spending today-dollars and exercising options for the right to sell stock 5 or 10yrs into the future almost never works out

There are places that will, no recourse, loan you the money to exercise and pay the tax, in exchange for some percentage of the profit, provided it's for a company they like. Meaning, they lend you the money, but if there's no IPO/liquidity event, you don't owe them any money. 70% (say) of a big number may not be as big as 100% of a big number, but 100% of zero is $0. Which isn't financial advice, just a bit of math.

bradlys•58m ago
> If you join an early stage company and you have a decent amount of excess capital, early exercise everything and file an 83(b) election. The reasons for doing this: starting the QSBS clock, starting the long term capital gains clock, not needing to worry about your options expiring.

I don't think this is ever worth the risk. If you're even thinking of doing this for QSBS purposes... the amount of tax you'd incur is way too much. Even if you have "excess" capital, you may as well put the $50k+ into a shitcoin and you'd see a much quicker return (or lack thereof). For most people where $50-100k+ in tax is a trivial amount to worry about, why are you joining as an employee? Clearly you've made a lot of money in the past... Just be a founder instead. You're taking on just as much risk.

> If you join an early stage company and you don’t have much capital, don’t do anything just yet. Try to negotiate for an extended post termination exercise window.

For 99%+ of people joining startups as regular employees, this is what you should be doing. If you leave the company before it becomes liquid, exercising the shares can be super risky. We've been waiting on several very well known companies to go public for a long time now. Who knows when they'll go public. At that point, you've spent possibly hundreds of thousands to exercise your shares, hundreds of thousands more in taxes... and they might be worthless and you can maybe deduct $3,000/yr for who knows how long.

> If you can get liquidity at some point, and you think liquidity would improve your life, you probably should.

It is unlikely though.

IMO, until tax law (and especially market conditions) changes - I do not believe in joining any private company unless you are convinced they will IPO within the year. This is assuming you care about compensation significantly.

vrosas•50m ago
One thing I've learned working for startups is if you're working for a founder who's already had a previous successful startup exit(s), two things are true:

1. the founder already has generational wealth and this current company means practically nothing to them.

2. they've already learned every trick in the book to keep the company's value in their own pocket and out of the hands of their employees.

takklz•12m ago
Just something I’ve seen lately at all of the startups I’ve worked at…

The founders, early investors, etc., will cash out way before you do and you will not have the same ability to sell as they did. I’ve seen it tear companies apart. YMMV

fluorinerocket•3m ago
I've concluded that options are a scam after owning them in many companies. It's never amounted to anything

Why Android can't use CDC Ethernet (2023)

https://jordemort.dev/blog/why-android-cant-use-cdc-ethernet/
112•goodburb•3h ago•46 comments

Omnimax

https://computer.rip/2025-06-08-Omnimax.html
48•aberoham•3h ago•12 comments

Poison everywhere: No output from your MCP server is safe

https://www.cyberark.com/resources/threat-research-blog/poison-everywhere-no-output-from-your-mcp-server-is-safe
32•Bogdanp•1h ago•9 comments

Panjandrum: The 'giant firework' built to break Hitler's Atlantic Wall

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20250603-the-giant-firework-built-to-break-hitlers-atlantic-wall
75•rmason•3d ago•55 comments

Building supercomputers for autocrats probably isn't good for democracy

https://helentoner.substack.com/p/supercomputers-for-autocrats
20•rbanffy•2h ago•4 comments

Administering immunotherapy in the morning seems to matter. Why?

https://www.owlposting.com/p/the-time-of-day-that-immunotherapy
102•abhishaike•7h ago•73 comments

Startup Equity 101

https://quarter--mile.com/Startup-Equity-101
87•surprisetalk•3d ago•30 comments

Show HN: Let’s Bend – Open-Source Harmonica Bending Trainer

https://letsbend.de
71•egdels•7h ago•12 comments

My first attempt at iOS app development

https://mgx.me/my-first-attempt-at-ios-app-development
56•surprisetalk•3d ago•23 comments

Cheap yet ultrapure titanium might enable widespread use in industry (2024)

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-cheap-ultrapure-titanium-metal-enable.amp
64•westurner•4d ago•36 comments

OpenBSD IO Benchmarking: How Many Jobs Are Worth It?

https://rsadowski.de/posts/2025/fio_simple_benckmarking/
6•PaulHoule•1h ago•0 comments

Gaussian integration is cool

https://rohangautam.github.io/blog/chebyshev_gauss/
134•beansbeansbeans•15h ago•28 comments

The Wire That Transforms Much of Manhattan into One Big, Symbolic Home

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/eruv-manhattan-invisible-wire-jewish-symbolic-religious-home
14•rmason•3h ago•4 comments

How Compiler Explorer Works in 2025

https://xania.org/202506/how-compiler-explorer-works
96•vitaut•4d ago•19 comments

I Used AI-Powered Calorie Counting Apps, and They Were Even Worse Than Expected

https://lifehacker.com/health/ai-powered-calorie-counting-apps-worse-than-expected
9•gnabgib•33m ago•0 comments

Binfmtc – binfmt_misc C scripting interface

https://www.netfort.gr.jp/~dancer/software/binfmtc.html.en
76•todsacerdoti•11h ago•19 comments

The last six months in LLMs, illustrated by pelicans on bicycles

https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/6/six-months-in-llms/
696•swyx•16h ago•186 comments

Efficient mRNA delivery to resting T cells to reverse HIV latency

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-60001-2
70•matthewmacleod•3d ago•11 comments

Joining Apple Computer (2018)

https://www.folklore.org/Joining_Apple_Computer.html
388•tosh•1d ago•111 comments

Endangered classic Mac plastic color returns as 3D-printer filament

https://arstechnica.com/apple/2025/06/new-filament-lets-you-3d-print-parts-in-authentic-1980s-apple-computer-color/
31•CobaltFire•3d ago•0 comments

Generating Pixels One by One

https://tunahansalih.github.io/blog/autoregressive-vision-generation-part-1/
10•cyruseption•3d ago•0 comments

Launching the BeOS on Hitachi Flora Prius Systems (1999)

http://testou.free.fr/www.beatjapan.org/mirror/www.be.com/support/guides/hitachi_boot.html
36•doener•9h ago•13 comments

Self-Host and Tech Independence: The Joy of Building Your Own

https://www.ssp.sh/blog/self-host-self-independence/
407•articsputnik•1d ago•196 comments

<Blink> and <Marquee> (2020)

https://danq.me/2020/11/11/blink-and-marquee/
192•ghssds•19h ago•155 comments

Coventry Very Light Rail

https://www.coventry.gov.uk/coventry-light-rail
180•Kaibeezy•1d ago•244 comments

Focus and Context and LLMs

https://taras.glek.net/posts/focus-and-context-and-llms/
64•tarasglek•14h ago•27 comments

Ask HN: How to learn CUDA to professional level

187•upmind•13h ago•65 comments

Tool to identify poisonous books developed by University of St Andrews

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jun/06/tool-to-identify-poisonous-books-developed-by-university-of-st-andrews
30•bookofjoe•4h ago•9 comments

Field Notes from Shipping Real Code with Claude

https://diwank.space/field-notes-from-shipping-real-code-with-claude
267•diwank•1d ago•77 comments

Building an AI server on a budget

https://www.informationga.in/blog/building-an-ai-server-on-a-budget
67•mful•2d ago•40 comments