¹) https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Goldreserven#Diskussi...
What's happening is a much simpler, more drastic concern: does the US respect its international commitments?
Since then, it flip-flopped on the Paris Agreement, single-handedly put tariffs on goods imported from literally every single country in the world, withdrew from WHO and so on and so on.
Not only does the US not respect the commitments it already agreed to, it hasn't done so for the past 10 or years.
If countries enter the lunatic phase of money printing you never quite know what they're going to do next. But it probably isn't going to be good for asset owners and it may well already be too late to get things out of well known vaults. Better to be a bit early.
They're not motivated by an abstract argument. Any moment you're going to see a comment about how they should've put their money in crypto or some foolishness like that. This is not about central banking or government issued currencies. This is about a specific risk of dictatorship and war.
pedantic, adjective.
marked by a narrow focus on or display of learning especially its trivial aspects
The only narrow focus I see is yours.> This is not about central banking or government issued currencies. This is about a specific risk of dictatorship and war.
It's about both things. And the parent comment you are dismissing was also about the power of the president to upend the established order.
But we live in a world where it is considered poor form to expect history qualifications in elected office, so this kind of crash, followed by the long descent, is baked in.
One, Russia’s stuff hasn’t been seized. Europe tried. But, in true form, failed to get its act together.
Two, is the argument really that Trump would be constrained by precedent if Europe and the U.S. got into a situation where seizing the former’s gold comes on the table?
They were only insured up to something like 100kEuro, and it was values above that amount that got "bailed in" when the banks failed.
Those assets are frozen, not seized.
Confiscation would be e.g. definitively taking control and disposing of it, the proceeds going in to the general funds of the relevant country.
It sounds optimistic, but after Stalin came Khruschev, a much more "normal" person. Though it is true he didn't last even a decade. But there was a lot of political thaw in between, and some of this thaw survived.
(this comment also covers France recently bringing home their gold)
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/1163519987825...
Perversely, I’m not even sure that US seizing foreign owned gold would crash the gold market. Remember prices are set by incremental sales, not total held. So there would likely be a rush to buy gold domiciled outside the US, creating upwards price pressure if only temporary.
Is this sarcasm? It’s hard to tell these days.
I don't think many people share this sentiment.
Does this demonstrate a lack of imagination or some kind of hermetically sealed alternative reality?
Agreed, but tempering their tendencies for isolationism doesn't mean trusting a country that threatens to invade so-called allies. There are many other places, starting in the EU (since Germany is already in the EU, of course).
1. Long-term backlash against unchecked globalization. Every western country has to come to grips with the long-term impacts of the deindustrialization that globalization has enabled - this impacts their domestic societal stability, their long-term economic growth, and their ability to act internationally and independently.
2. One particular western leader (who happened to come to power, at least partly riding the wave of the backlash above) has accelerated this trend by taking the possibility of trans-Atlantic (+plus a few Pacific trends) tradebloc to form "globalization lite" as a middle ground solution (honestly, I have no idea how viable this would have actually been), and took it behind the shed and shot it, and then burned the corpse.
Globalization was bearable in part because America did infact run the game, and tended to run the game reasonably well. US aligned nations could all see China growing in strength, but they all figured that as long as they played their role and played nice, that when the time came, they could join the US in whatever new game it wanted to play, or join the US in helping push back. What they perhaps did not count on was just has careless America could be, or that America would want to stop playing with them at all.
Towards your point on confidence and trust. As others have pointed out, Trump has also violated trust in all sorts of ways. Trump delights in norm and trust breaking, as a form of dominance display - both as meat for the base, but also to satisfy his own impulses. But perhaps worse, I think a lot of people are now also calculating that Trump could easily misuse or violate trust without really knowing it. Iran should have clarified to everyone that the Trump administration is willing the act on deeply flawed (or perhaps absent) second order (or even move-countermove) planning.
Then again as a Brit I am a bit biased
Sorry to break it to you, but heads in sand doesn't make history not happen...
Before that the USA was aiding and fostering violent dictatorships, helping them to perform coups all around if they were amenable to the US's interests (aka: they were anti-commies) like in Latin America, Iran itself, etc.; bombing countries where their right-wing coups failed like in Vietnam during its independence period after French rule, for example.
Just like the invasion of Ukraine became the most important topic globally for years, and made everyone virtue signal about how important sovereignty supposedly is, whereas sovereignty somehow didn’t matter in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, South Sudan, Iran, Lebanon, and I don’t know where else.
The big difference before was that america commit war crimes, but it did so in a socially acceptable way and was able to keep a polite face in important company. It's like how being a manager at tech companies is 95% speaking affluently and sounding like you know what you're doing (and also like 80% being white). We used to sound like we knew what we were doing. Now we don't.
The fact that the US is not as powerful as it used to be may actually make it dangerous. "On a smaller scale" doesn't mean it cannot destroy the world's economy, as we are seeing now.
The trouble is that everyone chooses their own favorite bits from the past and ignores the rest, plus succumbs to unrealistically positive stereotypes about the past.
Or maybe 20ish years before that when we violently restructured the government or Iran at the behest of supposed allies?
Or how about when we sold our industry overseas because a steel mill who's pollution we can't control on the other side of the world is better than one in Ohio?
It boggles the mind that people cannot grasp that the sum total of bad and shortsighted decisions of the past are what created the present conditions.
I think the question is moot now.
If you’re someone guarding the gold, you’d have to be stupid not to replace it with tungsten. A single bar is a lifetime of wages. It’s not like anyone will ever notice, it’s a reserve that will never be spent.
The New York Fed’s gold is constantly being checked by bajillions of people.
> last time they did, a bunch of bars were made of tungsten
Source?
So maybe that happens, but it's a lot more complicated. And, of course, there are measures against that happening.
The question should why has not Germany pulled gold out to server two goals:
1. Financial gain 2. another step towards economic independence from USA
France already did the right thing....
Pay attention, as it does not hurt the world and economic system for multiple world reserve currencies to exist....EU might as be a reserve currency.
:-))
14 French-speaking Africian former colonies keep significant (>50%) of their gold reserves with the French treasury and use the CFA Franc as a currency, which is pegged to the Euro.
The colonial model is one of discouraging or even outright banning being self-sufficient. Crops that might otherwise feed the local populace are replaced to exportable cash crops. In particular, that's the World Bank/IMF model of "helping".
Anyway, Germany isn't a US imperial interest in the same way Cote d'Ivoire is for France... yet. Still, there are other mechanisms beyond gold that the US uses to influence or even control Germany (ie NATO).
[1]: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-france-backed-afr...
jjgreen•1h ago
lambdaone•1h ago
People ship million-dollar assets all the time. It would be a huge task to make 160,000 such trips, though.
fakedang•1h ago
shrubble•1h ago
Such bars would not be to the 99.9 percent gold standard set by the London Bullion Market Association. They would instead be at about 90% purity, since American gold coins had 10% copper added, which makes the gold harder and more wear-resistant.
See https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank... however, no explanation is given, only that the bars were melted, purified and then recast.
radiator•1h ago
... to put it mildly. Nobody has audited the gold in decades and even its owners (banks of foreign countries) are not allowed to inspect it.
raphman•15m ago
https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce... - Federal Reserve Bank of New York starts at page 2016 (PDF:2019)
PowerElectronix•1h ago
forkerenok•1h ago
SturgeonsLaw•1h ago
JumpCrisscross•1h ago
The arb means you’re still suffering a price difference. You’re just paying “the market” to solve it for you.
pjc50•53m ago
IshKebab•21m ago
Zigurd•44m ago
9dev•1h ago
Like they had any authority to dictate what Germany can do with their property, but hey
rrr_oh_man•1h ago
9dev•17m ago
paganel•1h ago
SanjayMehta•1h ago
Joker_vD•1h ago
chvid•1h ago
rrr_oh_man•1h ago
pjc50•50m ago
chvid•32m ago
jopsen•1h ago
Do you think Europeans are going to have a problem buying/selling US stonks any time soon?
ekidd•1h ago
tonfa•58m ago
They repatriated the remaining gold (5% of reserve) over 2y.
The bulk of the gold that was held in the US was moved back in 60s.
jbverschoor•23m ago
functional_dev•43m ago
Moving 1,400 tonnes might take years. The window to act is closing.