The article brings up a few reasons for why this has happened, such as the end of ZIRP and the complete lack of curation on platforms like Steam making it hard for titles to stand out. I guess if you're a publisher, you have a better chance of making a return on investment by funding 20 pixel art or friendslop titles and hoping one of them goes viral rather than funding 1 title like the new Myst sequel and hoping it doesn't get buried on Steam and the Nintendo eshop.
Indie devs have the time and freedom to pursue any new ideas, and it seems like every couple of months a new indie game goes viral on Steam. But many of them are passion projects that were done in someone's spare time outside of their day job. If devs could give investors more confidence that a game will sell well or go viral if it hits a certain development stage, we could do a better job of directing game dev funding towards indie devs making truly fun games.
I know a guy who works with one of those publishers.
According to him, almost nobody at the publisher actually games. The ones who do, limit themselves to gacha games or Bejeweled-tier games. Gaming, at least at that one, is considered childish.
Another problem is, their games were popular at a time when most people didn't even have an internet connection, and therefore had far more patience for offline gaming. Their games require a LOT of patience.
Getting games installed and working in that era was often a chore. So when people sat down to play, it was already there for them.
Myst's sequels didn't sell as well as the first, despite the power of the brand, either. Likely because of competition.
What has happened is the number of people working on games has become ridiculously large.
I could sit down with one other level designer / environmental artist and create something that would be visually competitive with Myst in record time using modern tools.
AI assistance is most dangerous (for your competition) when you mostly need it for the scripting and code, and not for the art or direction. You don't need an AI disclosure on steam if you use AI responsibly.
There's this concept of 'AA games' or 'Myst games' that sit between AAA and indie titles. From what I hear across most of the industry and genres, as people's disposable income shrinks, the market is polarizing into reliable AAA games on one side and small, niche indie games on the other. Small indies can bet on extreme gameplay that big companies would never attempt.
In other words, when people start cutting back on hobbies, the first thing they reduce is spending on hobbies. And when they start tightening further, the first games to get dropped from their lists are the mid-tier ones.
Whether it's software or any genre market, this middle tier is disappearing because consumer spending itself is becoming extremely polarized.
This is a contradiction in cost structure.
When developing software, reducing the size to a mid tier level doesn't linearly reduce fixed costs. You still need to build server infrastructure, payment systems, security, basic UI/UX, cross platform support, and more, all of which come with enormous upfront costs. AAA companies can amortize these fixed costs by selling to millions of users, but a AA studio with limited capital ends up spending most of its budget just on infrastructure, leaving few resources to polish the core value of the product, graphics, gameplay fun, and design.
Also, when a recession hits, a cognitive tandem effect occurs. Only two things survive: what everyone else is playing, and niche products that match your personal taste. Mid tier products with moderate price and moderate quality require marketing efforts to convince consumers of their ambiguous value, often relying on influencer reviews or other forms of consumer persuasion.
jr3592•2d ago