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A statistical analysis of Rotten Tomatoes

https://www.statsignificant.com/p/is-rotten-tomatoes-still-reliable
79•m463•5h ago

Comments

retox•4h ago
Obvious to anyone using the site or aware of is ratings, including the author, but it is good to see some analysis as evidence.
daft_pink•3h ago
I will say that when I used to go to the theaters, which was before the pandemic and I started a family I used metacritic.

I found that any time I went to something that was red, I absolutley regretted it and it was terrible. Yellow was more hit or miss and top green scores were pretty good.

Exceptions were comedy where a lower score could still mean a good film, and politics oriented films, where a bad film with a media approved message could get a really good score even if it sucked.

It’s sad to not get a reliable indicator of that and someone should just resurrect the old score and call it Bad Apples. Since the actual score seems transparent, why not develop a competitor.

gboss•21m ago
Theaters still exist you should go back. I go two or three times a month. If your kid is 4 or older they’ll have a great time. It’s good and healthy to get out of the house!
qwertytyyuu•3h ago
Would there be some selection bias as well? As info about movies becomes readily available, generally the people who go see movies would have decided that they would probably enjoy said movie, and write favourable reviews
mxxx•3h ago
If they're actual movie reviewers then their job is to go see films regardless of whether they think they'd personally enjoy them. Some of the best reviews come from reviewers who have to go and see something they absolutely hate and would never go see for their own entertainment.
nzealand•2h ago
Fun fact. You can click into Popcornmeter and see verified audience reviews versus all reviews.

E.g. Audience who went to see 2025's Snow White loved it. Those who haven't seen it hated it. Who is more biased?

mxxx•3h ago
Regardless of the introduction of sycophantic reviewers, the 3/5 = fresh thing has always been a pretty half-ass threshold imo, and that a fact that a film can be "100% fresh" on RT on the basis of every single reviewer saying "yeah it's nothing special but it's fine, 3 stars" is fairly easy to misinterpret.
cubefox•3h ago
Yeah. Pixar movies are often close to 100%. IMDb ratings are usually far more reasonable.
pbsds•3h ago
a mean rating of 3 can only be 100% fresh if the variance is 0
chongli•2h ago
Wouldn't we expect the most truly mediocre movies to have the lowest variance in opinions?
throwup238•31m ago
That might be why the Marvel movies score so highly.
bhaney•2h ago
That is what "every single reviewer saying '[...] 3 stars'" means, yeah.
og_kalu•1h ago
Yeah and his point is that's never going to happen lol. People bring up the 100% point a lot and it's a bit silly because a movie with a significant number of ratings is never going to have that kind of distribution.

That's why it's always a hypothetical never backed with actual examples. It's one of those things that sounds plausible until you look at the numbers. Movies close to 100% have pretty high average scores and Movies with majority 3/5's are nowhere near 100%.

Yeah 100% for RT doesn't mean 10/10, but that's it.

foobarqux•25m ago
It’s just not true in practice: it’s pretty typical to find films with high rotten tomatoes scores and not very high metacritic scores; rotten tomatoes scores are pretty much useless unless you are not very discerning.

Examples:sovereign, how to make a million…, count of monte cristo, etc

kjkjadksj•2h ago
Maybe the rating system should be changed from fresh and rotten into clonally propagated and heirloom to reflect this nuance
bufferoverflow•2h ago
RottenTomatoes has been rotten for over a decade. IMDB user ratings are much more useful, but still far from perfect.
relwin•1h ago
IMDB also had a ratings inflation of about 0.5 points about the same time (anecdata), where movies over 5.5 were watchable back then. Now a 6.0+ demarcates a watchable movie. Or my threshold changed in the past 10 years or so...
dcreater•2h ago
Stopped reading when I saw a bar chart being used for correlating critic and audience scores.
mvdtnz•2h ago
You don't need to comment if you didn't read.
ziotom78•1h ago
It's not the best way to visualise a correlation, I agree, but the article is interesting and full of valuable information, so why stop reading?
mjamil•1h ago
It’s interesting that people pay close attention to one-size-fits all number (regardless of the pros and cons of the methodology used to derive said number). I find RT really useful for collating the reviews from “top” reviewers in one place: over the years, I know how my interests align with the tastes of particular reviewers, and I don’t have to look in multiple places to get a snapshot view of their opinions.
nebula8804•1h ago
Its absolutely hopeless. The rankings are gamed because Rotten Tomato still carries some semblance of credibility (although in this post Trump winning era, sources of credibility can get eroded more quickly)

It does not get clearer than when a political movie comes out. 2018 was an interesting year, two movies came out that really allowed me to get a clearer picture of what was going on: "Knock Down The House" and "Death of a Nation".

When "Knock Down The House" (documentary featuring the leftwing US politician AOC) came out, I got interested in scraping the data off of Rotten Tomatoes and studying it.

Before making any moves, I first watched the movie for myself in a theater (and also got to see a live Q&A with the director to understand her thought process)

The movie had at the time a 100% rating from critics and ~80% from viewers. After watching it, I would concur with the viewer ranking but felt that the critic ranking was unusually high. Seriously? 100%? (It has now gone down to 99% but still). In regards to the viewer ranking I conceded that I was probably biased which is why I also ran this experiment on Death of a Nation (also saw in theaters but to a room with only one other moviegoer).

Knock Down the House eventually got featured on Tucker Carlson like a year after release(I think it coincided with Netflix making it free on youtube). I watched in realtime how the movie critic score kept going down and down and down to where it is now (11%). Dumping the scraped data, I ran a simple analysis and discovered a large portion of the people ranked it with no comments, or simplistic things like how stupid AOC is and many had had no other ratings other than this movie or the only other film is the one featuring Illhan Omar (another politician hated by the right).

For Death of a nation, the scores were flipped. A whopping 0% in the critic score(12 reviews) while the user score stood at a respectable 87% (again at the time when I did my scraping yet again we saw tons of 1 movie reviewers). Yeah the movie royally sucked and was painful to watch but 0%? That was a bit fishy. This essentially killed any credibility that I had in Rotten Tomatoes.

I started to trust places like /r/movies and /r/AMCsAList only to get burned by that as well when movies recommended in the comments would end up being terrible and then when I went back to criticize the films, I would get criticized and downvoted to non visible status. It was not a definite signal but gave me the feeling that there is a lot of astroturfing going on there as well.

Furthermore, these movies promoted on Reddit would typically be in 3/5 range on Rotten tomatoes which further made me think there is no real way to get a real signal if a film is likely to be good or not.

What I started to do was not a great metric but has helped cut down on the cruft: Follow specific actors/directors I really liked and ones that I felt were in it to make good films. As an example, actresses like Mary Elizabeth Winstead have turned down big roles in favor of indie films or other interesting scripts to the detriment of her career but the films have been more enjoyable and interesting. In each film I also find other actors to follow and if I start to see more studio promotion of a specific person (for example Anya Taylor Joy after The Queens Gambit) I start to caution away and sometimes just drop that actor from the list. In her case I stuck to films she worked with other people that I determined I liked(like Edgar Wright) before feeling like there is too much promotion going on and just dropping her from the list. Other than this, I fill out my list with franchises I like or subjects that I always give a chance to (science/space, etc.).

I know I am leaving out a lot of potential good films but the noise has become unbearable to the point where I don't want to waste my time anymore.

A few years later Rotten Tomatoes introduced "Verified Reviews". I thought this will be amazing as now it will only include people with skin in the game (ie. verified to have paid for a ticket)...except now this has been completely hijacked as well.

Going back to the example of political films now what the right wing does is they have a billionaire finance a film through some intermediary group then free tickets to the movie are given out at conservative events. People books seats to the movie, promote it on social media, post a "Verified Review" and then often don't show up to the screening. I have discovered sold out screenings to some of these movies but when I went to the theater to see some other film, i'd often peek into the screening of these films only to find they are almost empty. The movie plays regardless of if someone shows up or not. Furthermore some of these films actually have a code that they show at the end of the film to gift a free ticket to a friend so the box office numbers of these films are inflated and its all a bunch of hogwash.

Like I said its hopeless. In a way we saw the rise of this new fake world play out in Hollywood before it took over social media and the rest of the internet now. How will it end? People trusting only what they already know they like or from trusted friends and everything else is ignored.

This article has got me thinking of an interesting idea though: What if we go and determine which of the critics are known to provide reviews that reflect our tastes (maybe by reading reviews of movies that we enjoyed), then pull only those review data and compute a new Tomato score based only on those critics? We could toss the Rotten Tomatoes tomato meter in the trash and get back to a legitimate review that you could use as a positive signal again.

seemaze•1h ago
I just attend my local independent cinema. Sometimes I’m blown away. Sometimes the film sucks, but there are only 3-4 options at any given time. Simplifies the decision, and at the very least, they serve beer.
ildon•1h ago
I only rely on IMDb scores and they're still reliable if enough time has passed since the movie release. A movie with more than 6 avg is usually enjoyable, while below 6 is not worth watching. Over 7 is usually very good, over 8 is a masterpiece
defrost•1h ago
There are many metrics that can be sampled, many challenges to normalization.

eg: https://ext.to/browse/?sort=seeds&order=desc&cat=1&q=2019

is a listing of 2019 movie torrents ranked by seeds (number of clients holding full copies of a torrent version).

A normalization challenge is to group torrent variations (1080p rips and 720p rips and WEB-DL's and BluRay and etc.) and tally up and rank interest in various films over time.

Clearly Ne Zha (2019), a Chinese Animation, Fantasy, Adventure movie was a global pirate star of that year .. should it be "normalized" by population of country of origin to smooth out the home team having a billion+ in population "bias" ?

One advantage of ranking films by year and pirate copies is it provides a pragmatic measure of "staying power"

https://ext.to/browse/?sort=seeds&order=desc&cat=1&q=1964

My Fair Lady, Dr Strangelove, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, Mary Poppins, A Fistful of Dollars, and Goldfinger are still being hoarded 60 years after their release.

* https://www.themoviedb.org/movie/615453

* https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ne_zha

neilv•41m ago
> To account for this influx of reviewers, Rotten Tomatoes has created a "Top Critic" designation reserved for established media outlets, such as The New York Times and The Atlantic. However, this label has no special bearing on a film's top-line Tomatometer score and is largely incorporated into ancillary aspects of the site.

Just last night, I noticed that I could access the two percentage scores for critic reviews.

If you go to "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_dilemma", and click on the critic reviews percentage (25%), you get a popup that lets you select between seeing the All Critics score (25%) and Top Critics score (28%).

(And if I'd thought to check Rotten Tomatoes first, when selecting what looked like a fun light comedy on Netflix, I wouldn't have wasted an hour of my life before I said WTF, checked RT, and continued to be in a bad mood.)

Incidentally, I'd love to have the Tomatometer score integrated into my UI for video streaming services. The services seem to instead like to use their own very generous scoring instead. (When they show any score at all. Some like to suppress the ratings for new shows they produced, presumably to avoid shooting down their own poor shows before people watch them by default.) But Rotten Tomatoes is a much better predictor of how I'll like a show than the streaming service scores are. But maybe the streaming services don't want to expose that the majority of the movies and series offered at any time now range from mediocre to outright bad.

michaeljx•33m ago
I am doing my movie selection via Plex, which has both tomatoes' and IMDb scores in the movie description
bruce511•24m ago
>> But maybe the streaming services don't want to expose that the majority of the movies and series offered at any time now range from mediocre to outright bad.

There is no "now" necessary in that sentence.

All media production in all eras is mostly terrible. Music wasn't better in the 80s, or 70s, or 60s, its just that the 80s music you hear today is heavily curated to the good stuff.

It seems like streaming has made it worse, but only because you're watching so much more. In the past movies took effort to watch. You went to the cinema, or video shop. By the time they made it to TV they were curated, or at the very least you knew about them.

There was plenty of dross that made it direct to video that never made it to cinema or TV. (In 1989 I lived for a year at a place with no broadcast TV. We watched 2 videos a night from the local blockbuster-type store. They had a LOT of very crap movies.

To blame streamers for delivering a lot of mediocre content is to miss the root cause. Most new content is mediocre. Or bad. It has always been the way. Streaming just makes it easier to watch.

freddie_mercury•2m ago
Rotten Tomatoes licensing for a major streaming platform would probably be millions of dollars a year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/4649rw/comment/d03a...

sirnicolaz•33m ago
I still miss the times when I would decide to watch a movie based on the cover at the VHS store or based on a recommendation. Much faster, way more serendipity.
jackero•7m ago
I find RT scores very accurate but not the raw score.

What I mean is that a 70% score is meaningless to me. I need to know the movie genre, the audience score, the age of the movie and then I basically do a “lookup table” in my head. And I have that lookup table because I’ve looked up every movie I’ve watched on RT for 15 years so I know how the scores correlate to my own personal opinions.

Also, the author said that critic scores should align with audience scores but no that’s not true at all. Critics tend to care more about plot continuity, plot depth and details while the audience tends to care about enjoyability. Both are important to me so I always look at both scores. That’s why a lot of very funny comedies have a 60-69% critic score but a 90%-100% audience score — because it’s funny but the plot makes no fucking sense and has a million holes. And if you see a comedy with 95% critic but 70% audience, you might chuckle a few times for the whole movie at best but it will be thought provoking and well done.

Finbel•1m ago
Always wondered why Rings of Power have 84% critics score but just 49% audience.

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A statistical analysis of Rotten Tomatoes

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