Depending on how sophisticated the efforts are, there are websites you can go to that will give you a flight path prediction based on current+previous day(s) wind. So you could stage recovery teams in the general area to get much closer. There could also be some sort of timer that some how deflates the balloon instead of waiting for simple physics to have a little more control. At the end of the day you are subject to whatever the wind currents are.
I can see a lot of reasons for Belarus and Russia to create lots of contacts in EU airspace. The strategy is called "salami slicing" [0]
Especially in light of the point the others are making-- this is a really unreliable form of smuggling.
Unfortunately I'm not extrapolating, this fits within a very mature pattern. See 'Little Green Men' in lead-up to Ukraine invasion and the drones violating airspace that Poland has been shooting down.
It's a reliable way to spread bad breath and cancer.
They just use prevailing wind routes, and toss tons of balloons up, and have 'em float over the border cause cigarette taxes are so high in Europe that it's worth it.
And then there's people waiting along the wind path to pick up the balloons as they come down.
There's a lot of inefficiencies built into smuggling operations. You can absolutely grab huge amounts of smuggled items in busts and not end up denting profits for the smugglers cause they're smuggling so much (see cocaine, fentanyl, cigarettes in blue states in America).
I wouldn't entirely rule out the Russians or Belarussions doing probing moves, but the Enforcer's been a great source of information for these events as they occur.
There's a fair number of articles from previous encounters - https://fortune.com/2025/10/05/hot-air-balloons-smuggling-ci...
It's entirely possible that the operations are in cahoots and this is an intelligence operation being conducted as a smuggling operation.
It doesn't look like it's so much a tax issue as it is a labor issue. (Well, it is a tariff issue and tariffs are taxes).
My guess is that they aren't growing enough tobacco to meet local demand which has ultimately kicked up prices.
dylan604•1h ago
mothballed•1h ago
On the other hand, take a look at the price difference of cigarettes between Australia and Indonesia, like 20x. There must be a pretty insane volume of smuggling going on between those countries seperate by a short straight of Ocean, it would support narco submarine levels of sophistication.
codyb•17m ago
Those Virginia taxed cigarettes are sold in NYC for 10 bucks a pack now or 1 dollar a loosey (a... friend told me). That's 2x on packs and 4x on looseys.
That gives you a pretty healthy margin before busts could impact your profits.
Presumably you're also buying them in bulk in Virginia for cheaper than the 4 or 5 dollar store price too.
Cigarettes are probably a nickel a piece coming off the line?
giorgioz•1h ago
dylan604•25m ago
stickfigure•11m ago
That seems improbable? Lithuania is only a couple hundred miles across and these balloons are completely at the mercy of wind.
I would expect the balloon owners want a quick hop over border security. Chasing them down over hundreds of miles of potentially private property sounds like more trouble than it would be worth.
Tade0•42m ago
Considering how light the product was, that translated to ~€20 per kilogram, with about 20% of this figure being the cost of third rate tobacco stuffed into those cigarettes.
The smell was distinctly foul, but he was happy with the bargain he got on them.